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Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第1期8卷 72-83页

作者： Leonid Kalachev Erin L.Landguth Jon Graham Mathematical Sciences University of MontanaMissoulaUSA Center for Population Health Research School of Public and Community Health SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaUSA

Background:Classical infectious disease models during epidemics have widespread usage,from predicting the probability of new infections to developing vaccination plans for informing policy decisions and public health responses.However,it is important to correctly classify reported data and understand how this impacts estimation of model parameters.The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an abundant amount of data that allow for thorough testing of disease modelling assumptions,as well as how we think about classical infectious disease modelling paradigms.Objective:We aim to assess the appropriateness of model parameter estimates and preiction results in classical infectious disease compartmental modelling frameworks given available data types(infected,active,quarantined,and recovered cases)for situations where just one data type is available to fit the model.Our main focus is on how model prediction results are dependent on data being assigned to the right model compartment.Methods:We first use simulated data to explore parameter reliability and prediction capability with three formulations of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed(SIR)modelling framework.We then explore two applications with reported data to assess which data and models are sufficient for reliable model parameter estimation and prediction accuracy:a classical influenza outbreak in a boarding school in England and COVID-19 data from the fall of 2020 in Missoula County,montana,USA.Results:We demonstrated the magnitude of parameter estimation errors and subsequent prediction errors resulting from data misclassification to model compartments with simulated data.We showed that prediction accuracy in each formulation of the classical disease modelling framework was largely determined by correct data classification versus misclassification.Using a classical example of influenza epidemics in an England boarding school,we argue that the Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered(SIQR)model is more appropriate than the commonly employed SIR model given the

关键词： Basic disease reproduction number Communicable disease control Coronavirus COVID-19 Disease transmission Epidemics Epidemiology Influenza data Mathematical models montana SIR models

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Lin Songtian: Join hands to bring marginalized Africa back to the main track of development

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Voice of Friendship 2022年第3期 31-33页

作者： Wu Yuna 不详

On June 30,the 33rd annual session of the Crans montana Forum opened in Brussels,Belgium.Lin Songtian,president of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries,was invited to attend online as a special guest and delivered a keynote speech.More than 200 politicians and former politicians from 17countries,including Mauritius and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

关键词： Africa montana hands

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Cultivation characteristics and flavonoid contents of wormwood (Artemisia montana Pamp.)

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Journal of Agricultural Chemistry and Environment 2013年第4期2卷 117-122页

作者： Yong Joo Kim Jeong-Hoon Lee Sun-Ju Kim Department of Bio-Environmental Chemistry Chungnam National University Daejeon South Korea Department of Herbal Crop Research NIHHS RDA Eumseong South Korea

The aim of this study was to establish the optimum harvesting time and the content of flavonoids in the leaves, stems, and roots of Artemisia montana Pamp. A. montana was monitored from June to October in 2012. The yield of A. montana at high density (30 × 10 cm) was higher than that of A. montana at low density (30 × 20 and 30 cm). Yield in terms of dry weight was increased with an extended growth period and development stage. High yield achieved at 2580 and 2757 kg?10 a?1 in September and October, respectively. Among the leaves, stems, and underground plant organs, jaceosidin and eupatilin were mainly detected in the leaves, and the highest levels were observed in June, at values of 66.6 and 158.2 mg?100 g?1, respectively. In contrast, apigenin was the major compound detected in the underground plant organs, with levels ranging from 21.2 to 29.5 mg?100 g?1 until September. Therefore, optimal harvest times were between September and October, generating a high yield and adding economic value although a higher level of total flavonoids was observed in crops harvested in June.

关键词： Artemisia montana Flavonoids Harvest Time Plant Density

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Upper Sun River Drainage Basin Origin Determined by Topographic Map Interpretation Techniques: Lewis and Clark and Teton Counties, montana, USA

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Open Journal of Geology 2019年第5期9卷 257-277页

作者： Eric Clausen Independent Researcher Jenkintown PA

A new and fundamentally different regional geomorphology paradigm in which massive south- and southeast-oriented meltwater floods flowed across the entire Missouri River drainage basin is tested by interpreting detailed topographic maps of the montana upper Sun River drainage basin region by trying to explain origins of previously unexplained or poorly explained erosional landforms located upstream from Sun River Canyon (which cuts across montana’s north-to-south oriented Sawtooth Range). Mountain passes, through valleys, and other drainage divide low points along what are today high mountain ridges, including the North American east-west continental divide, are interpreted to be evidence of drainage routes that once crossed the region. These drainage divide crossings suggest that prior to erosion of present-day upper Sun River drainage basin valleys, massive floods moved in south directions across what are today the north-oriented Middle and South Fork Flathead River drainage basins into today’s upper Sun River drainage basin area and carved a complex of diverging and converging channels into what was probably a low relief surface now represented by the crests of the region’s highest mountain ridges. Further, the map evidence shows how a diverging complex of south- and southeast-oriented upstream Sun River drainage basin flood flow channels changed flow direction to cross the Sawtooth Range in a northeast direction before converging on the montana plains at a location downstream from Sun River Canyon. The observed upper Sun River drainage basin area topographic map evidence is consistent with the new geomorphology paradigm predictions, in which massive south-oriented meltwater floods flowing across the rising rim of a continental ice sheet created deep “hole” (created by deep ice sheet erosion and ice sheet weight caused crustal warping) are diverted to flow in northeast and north directions into and across deep “hole” space being opened up by ice sheet melting.

关键词： Dearborn River Flathead River Missouri River montana Sawtooth Range Mountain Pass Origin New Geomorphology Paradigm Transverse Drainage

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Theater Connects China and US

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China News Release 2023年第8期 72-73页

作者： Zhu Dan 不详

A group of U.S.teens made a successful debut performing in The Chinese Mermaid,a classic Chinese play for children,at the China National Theatre for Children(CNTC)on July 16,2023,kicking off the 12th China Children’s Theater Festival in Beijing.To pull off the show,the 15 teens from montana and California spent more than one year learning lines and dance from Chinese language teachers and artists.

关键词： Theater Beijing. montana

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美国蒙大拿州冰川国家公园冰缘条带形地表植物功能属性和土壤微生物随坡位变化（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2019年第7期29卷 1127-1141页

作者： APPLE Martha Elizabeth RICKETTS Macy Kara MARTIN Alice Caroline Department of Biological Sciences Montana Technological University Butte Montana 59701 USA Department of Botany The University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming 82071 USA Division of Biological Sciences The University of Montana Missoula Montana 59812 USA

The retreating snowfields and glaciers of Glacier National Park, montana, USA, present alpine plants with changes in habitat and hydrology. The adjacent and relic periglacial patterned ground consists of solifluction terraces of green, vegetation-rich stripes alternating with sparsely vegetated brown stripes. We established georeferenced transects on striped periglacial patterned ground for long-term monitoring and data collection on species distribution and plant functional traits at Siyeh Pass and at Piegan Pass at Glacier National Park. We documented species distribution and calculated the relative percent cover(RPC) of qualitative functional traits and used 16 S rRNA from soil samples to characterize microbial distribution on green and brown stripes. Plant species distribution varied significantly and there were key differences in microbial distribution between the green and brown stripes. The rare arctic-alpine plants Draba macounii, Papaver pygmaeum, and Sagina nivalis were restricted to brown stripes, where the RPC of xeromorphic taprooted species was significantly higher at the leading edge of the Siyeh Pass snowfield. Brown stripes had a higher percentage of the thermophilic bacteria Thermacetogenium and Thermoflavimicrobium. Green stripes were co-dominated by the adventitiously-rooted dwarf shrubs Salix arctica and the possibly N-fixing Dryas octopetala. Green stripes were inhabited by Krummholz and seedlings of Abies lasiocarpa and Pinus albicaulus. Prosthecobacter, a hydrophilic bacterial genus, was more abundant on the green stripes, which had 6,524 bacterial sequences in comparison to the 1,183 sequences from the brown stripes. While further research can determine which functional traits are critical for these plants, knowledge of the current distribution of plant species and their functional traits can be used in predictive models of the responses of alpine plants to disappearing snowfields and glaciers. This research is important in conservation of rare arctic-alpine species on periglacial pattern

关键词： alpine plants plant functional traits microbes periglacial patterned ground climate change Glacier National Park, montana

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NOTE ON SOME OPERCULA OF THE CENOZOIC GASTROPODA FROM KIANGSU PROVINCE

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古生物学报 1965年第4期 623-625+627-628+622页

作者： WANG HUI-JI (Institute of Geology and Palaeontology,Academia Sinica)

The present paper deals with the operchla that were collected from Kiangsu Pro-vince.The opercula were found to be in associatioil with ostracods,lamellibranches,gas-

关键词： Cretaceous Benson fossil montana deals Quaternary Miocene distinguished circle slightly

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40 Years of Surface Warming in the Northern US Rocky Mountains: Implications for Snowpack Retreat

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American Journal of Climate Change 2016年第2期5卷 275-295页

作者： Matthew J. Hornbach Maria Richards David Blackwell Cliff Mauroner Casey Brokaw Huffington Department of Earth Sciences Southern Methodist University Dallas TX USA

The northern US Rocky Mountains are experiencing rapid warming. Combined analysis of Ground Temperature (GT) measurements at two high-fidelity boreholes with Surface Air Temperature (SAT) measurements near Helena montana spanning the past 40 years indicate the northern US Rockies have warmed on average 0.12°C - 0.32°C/decade since 1975, at least a factor of ~5 higher than the predicted 500-year-average. Warming appears to be accelerating, with warming rates since 2013 4 - 7 times higher than the 40 year average. Though uncertainty exists, the most significant GT warming appears to occur at higher elevation. Warming estimates are consistent with modelling predictions, snowpack observations, and stream temperature studies, all suggesting rapid surface temperature change in this region during the past ~40 years. The analysis indicates GT warming measured at remote borehole sites is slightly lower than regional SAT measurements collected near urban environments. We associate the discrepancy between GT/SAT measurements to both anthropogenic effects (urban development) that increase warming at the nearest SAT measurement station and a 14-year period of anomalously low snowfall that reduces surface insulation and GT warming. Using a derived average forty-year surface warming rate of 0.22°C/ decade and regional temperature-elevation trends, we calculate that the elevation of the winter freeze line during the three coldest months of the year (December, January, and February) in the northern US Rocky Mountains is retreating upward, on average, 33 m/decade. This implies a 21% reduction in freeze-line area since 1974. If this trend continues, we estimate that within the next 40 years (by 2060), the total area where ground freeze occurs during the three coldest months of the year will be ~60% of 1974 values. Since GT measurements indicate accelerated warming, this may be an underestimate. The analysis has important implications for the snowpack-water budget for montana and the northern US Rocky Mountains.

关键词： Climate Change montana Rocky Mountains Water Temperature Borehole Snowpack

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Cambrian Correlation Between China and North America

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地质学报 1947年 141-161+421页

作者： B.F.HOWELL Princeton University

The promulgation by Professor Grabau of his Pulsation Theory has stimulated the interest of Paleozoic stratigraphers throughout the world in the intercontinental correlation of their formation and faunas. The degree t... 详细信息

关键词： Cambrian formations fauna Correlation Paleozoic earliest professor genera montana northeastern

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Kudzu Response to Foliar Applied Herbicides

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American Journal of Plant Sciences 2015年第7期6卷 856-863页

作者： Mark A. Weaver Robert E. Hoagland C. Douglas Boyette United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Southern Weed Science Research Unit Stoneville USA

Chemical control is presently the most cost-effective means to control kudzu;however, some of the herbicides labeled for kudzu control have substantial non-target toxicity, poor selectivity, high cost, long soil persistence, high soil mobility and/or high use rates. The present study evaluated other herbicides for efficacy in suppressing aboveground kudzu biomass in replicated field trials at three sites over two years. A single application of aminopyralid, triclopyr or metsulfuron resulted in at least 90% kudzu suppression in the following season at two locations. After a second year of treatment those herbicides and fluroxypyr produced at least 90% kudzu suppression, and 100% kudzu control was reached on some test plots. Glyphosate, glufosinate and mesotrione were less effective in controlling kudzu. Given the rapid growth potential of kudzu, complete eradication should be pursued. None of the herbicides evaluated in the present study could reliably achieve eradication of mature kudzu with two applications, so additional control efforts would be required.

关键词： Herbicidal Control Invasive Species Pueraria montana var. lobata Weed Control

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