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Evolution of drought and flood events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and key issues for response

Science China Earth Sciences 2023年第11期66卷 2514-2529页

作者： Jie LU Shu XU Tianling QIN Xin HE Denghua YAN Cheng ZHANG Sintayehu A.ABEBE State Key Laboratory of simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of Steppe Eco-hydrological System China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchHohhot 010020China Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering Department Debre Markos University Institute of TechnologyDebre Markos 999047Ethiopia

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a climate-sensitive region.The characteristics of drought and flood events in this region are significantly different as compared to other areas in the country,which could potentially induce a series of water security,ecological and environmental problems.It is urgent that innovative theories and methods for estimation of drought and flood disasters as well as their adaptive regulations are required.Based on extensive literature review,this paper identifies new situations of the evolution of drought and flood events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and analyzes the research progress in terms of monitoring and simulation,forecasting and early warning,risk prevention and emergency response.The study found that there were problems such as insufficient integration of multi-source data,low accuracy of forecasting and early warning,unclear driving mechanisms of drought and flood disaster chains,and lack of targeted risk prevention and regulation measures.On this basis,future research priorities are proposed,and the possible research and development paths are elaborated,including the evolution law of drought and flood on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the coincidence characteristics of drought and flood from the perspective of a water resources system,prediction and early warning of drought and flood coupled with numerical simulation and knowledge mining,identification of risk blocking points of drought and flood disaster chain and the adaptive regulations.Hopefully,the paper will provide technical support for preventing flood and drought disasters,water resources protection,ecological restoration and climate change adaptation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

关键词： Drought and flood evolution monitoring and simulation Prediction and early warning Risk prevention and emergency response Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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