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Ensemble projections of climate and streamflow in a typical basin of semi-arid steppes in mongolian plateau of 2021-2100

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 230-243页

作者： Hang PAN Jian-Ping TANG Liang CHENG Man-Chun LI Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Geography and Ocean Science Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

The Kherlen River is the main water source for Hulun Lake,the largest lake in northern China.Due to reduced inflow from the Kherlen River,Hulun Lake experienced rapid shrinkage at the beginning of the 21st century,posing a serious threat to the ecological security of northern China.However,there is still a significant lack of projections regarding future climate change and its hydrological response in the Kherlen River basin.This study analyzed the projected climate and streamflow changes in the Kherlen River basin,a vital yet vulnerable international semi-arid steppes type basin.A combination of multi-model ensemble projection techniques,and the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)model was employed to examine the spatio-temporal changes in precipitation,temperature,streamflow,and the associated uncertainties in the basin.The temperature(an increase of 1.84-6.42℃)and the precipitation(an increase of 15.0-46.0 mm)of Kherlen River basin are projected to increase by 2100,leading to a rise in streamflow(1.08-4.78 m^(3) s^(-1)).The upstream of the Kherlen River exhibits remarkable increasing trends in precipitation,which has a dominant influence on streamflow of Kherlen River.Noteworthy increases in streamflow are observed in April,August,September,and October compared to the reference period(1971-2000).These findings suggest a partial alleviation of water scarcity in the Kherlen River,but also an increased likelihood of hydrological extreme events.The projected temperature increase in the Kherlen River basin exhibits the smallest uncertainty,while more pronounced uncertainties are found in precipitation and streamflow.The spread among the results of CMIP6 models is greater than that of CMIP5 models,with lower signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)values for temperature,precipitation,and streamflow.

关键词： Climate change Flow projection Uncertainty SWAT mongolian plateau

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Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the mongolian plateau under climate change

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第1期16卷 46-70页

作者： ZHAO Xuqin LUO Min MENG Fanhao SA Chula BAO Shanhu BAO Yuhai College of Geographical Science Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhot 010022China Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Hohhot 010022China

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the mongolian plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the mongolian plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

关键词： gross primary productivity(GPP) climate change warming aridification areas drought sensitivity cumulative effect duration(CED) mongolian plateau

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A review of geophysical studies on the mongolian plateau

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Earthquake Science 2024年第3期37卷 224-240页

作者： Lei Zhang Zhouchuan Huang Xiaodong Song Qingju Wu SinoProbe Laboratory School of Earth and Space SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China School of Earth Sciences and Engineering Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The mongolian plateau in Central Asia is an intracontinental tectonic system far from active plate boundaries.Despite its distance from these boundaries,the plateau is characterized by intense crustal deformation accompanied by voluminous Cenozoic volcanism and active modern seismicity.However,the intraplate deformation mechanism has long been debated owing to the scarcity of observations and contradictions between different results.In recent years,growing geophysical studies have been conducted on the mongolian plateau,providing constraints on its lithospheric structure and dynamics.Here,we review the geophysical research on the mongolian plateau over the last decade,including seismological,geodetic,gravity,magnetotelluric,and geodynamic aspects.This review aims to(a)describe crustal and mantle structures based on multiscale seismic images;(b)describe deformation patterns based on seismic anisotropy,focal mechanisms,and global positioning system(GPS)observations;and(c)discuss the mechanisms behind intraplate deformation,volcanism,and seismic activity across the mongolian plateau.Seismic images show that the crustal structure of the plateau has significant east-west differences.Several blocks in the western mongolian plateau have thick crusts,including the Altai Mountains,Hovsgol Rift,and Hangay Dome.The lithospheric deformation across the mongolian plateau has strong lateral variation,with NE-SW shortening in the Altai Mountains and W-E or NW-SE shear deformation in the Hangay Dome region and the eastern part.The varied deformation may result from the superposition of multiple mechanisms,including far-field stress in the Altai Mountains,mantle upwelling,and mantle flow in the Hangay Dome region.However,it is difficult to identify the geodynamics of the formation of the entire mongolian plateau because the deformation is too complicated,and the present models are not sufficient and are always partial.Overall,this review encompasses recent advances in seismic observations of the mongolian plateau,illuminates the h

关键词： mongolian plateau Central Asia seismic tomography crust-mantle structure intraplate deformation

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Abrupt change of winter temperature over the mongolian plateau during 1961-2017

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Journal of Mountain Science 2023年第4期20卷 996-1009页

作者： XIA Ying-ying CHUN Xi DAN Dan LIU Hong-yu ZHOU Hai-jun WAN Zhi-qiang Inner Mongolia Restoration Engineering Laboratory of Wetland Eco-environment System Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhot010022China Key Laboratory of mongolian plateau’s Climate System Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhot010022China College of Geographical Science Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhot010022China College of Resources and Environment Baotou Teachers’CollegeBaotou014030China

Studying the abrupt change of winter temperature(ACWT)over the mongolian plateau(MP,including Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and State of Mongolia)is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and the mechanism of global climate change.Monthly temperature data during 1961–2017was collected,and the abrupt change point was determined by the Mann–Kendall test and sliding ttest,to analyze the characteristics and causes of ACWT.The results showed that(a)The winter temperature has rapidly increased with a trend of 0.41℃/10a,which was significantly higher than that of the rest area of Chinese mainland,indicating that climate change in the MP was more sensitive to global warming.(b)The abrupt change point occurred in 1988,with temperature of-15.5℃and-14.1℃before and after abrupt change,respectively.The ACWT in 50°N was 1–3 years later than that in 40°N,and the isotherms of different temperatures moved northward by 10–200 km,especially-16℃isotherms moved approximately 200 km northward after 1988.(c)The Arctic Oscillation(AO)and mongolian High(MH)anomaly affects winter temperature over the MP.When the AO is unusually strong,the MH and East Asian winter monsoon are weak,and southerly winds prevail in most regions,which is not conducive to the cold air developing southward,leading to higher winter temperature in the MP.Overwise,abnormally northerly winds prevail and temperature is low.Meanwhile,the abrupt change time of AO occurred in 1987 before winter temperature.It shows that the AO indirectly causes winter temperatures to rise by influencing the MH and is also the main driving factor of ACWT.

关键词： Abrupt temperature change Spatiotemporal distribution Arctic Oscillation Winter temperature mongolian plateau

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Dynamic evolution of spring sand and dust storms and cross-border response in mongolian plateau from 2000 to 2021

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2023年第1期16卷 2341-2355页

作者： Yu Zhang Juanle Wang Altansukh Ochir Sonomdagva Chonokhuu Chuluun Togtokh State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingPeople’s Republic of China College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering China University of Mining&Technology(Beijing)BeijingPeople’s Republic of China Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application NanjingPeople’s Republic of China Environmental Engineering Laboratory Department of Environment and Forest EngineeringSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentNational University of MongoliaUlaanbaatarMongolia Department of Environment and Forest Engineering National University of MongoliaUlaanbaatar CityMongolia Institute for Sustainable Development National University of MongoliaUlaanbaatarMongolia

According to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDG 15.3),frequent sand and dust storms(SDSs)in the spring are a long-term challenge to the prevention and control of land degradation on the mongolian plateau.In this study,MODIS remote sensing data are used to monitor and analyse SDS events on the mongolian plateau.The annual distribution of spring SDSs(March to May)from 2000 to 2021 are obtained based on the dust storm detection index.The overall classification accuracy is 85.24%and the kappa coefficient is 0.7636.Results show a decrease in the overall frequency of SDS events,where storm events in 2000–2010 are significantly higher than those in the second decade.The cross-border regions between China and Mongolia appear to be SDS intensity centers,particularly those in southern Mongolia.Precipitation exhibits a strong negative correlation with the area affected by SDS,and the correlation coefficient is–0.72.The increase in barren and sand contributes primarily to the increase in SDS,whereas wind prevention and sand control projects undertaken by the mongolian and Chinese governments promote regional restoration.Policies pertaining to cross-board sandstorm responses on the mongolian plateau are recommended.

关键词： mongolian plateau dust storm dust index land degradation MODIS

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Climate characteristics of the eastern mongolian plateau,China during the early Early Cretaceous(145-132 Ma):Palynological evidence from the Tongbomiao Formation in Well Hong-6,Hailar Basin

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China Geology 2022年第3期5卷 439-456页

作者： Yan Zhang Yun-fei Xue Chun-yang Bu Ti Li Xin Zhang Yu-dong Jin Yue-wu Sun College of Earth Sciences Jilin UniversityChangchun 130061China Geological Laboratory Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield Company Ltd.Daqing 163712China Research Center of Paleontology and Stratigraphy Jilin UniversityChangchun 130026China

This study identified two palynological assemblages,namely Bayanhuasporites-Cycadopites-Protoconiferus and Cicatricosisporites-Cedripites-Perinopollenites,in the Tongbomiao Formation in the Hongqi Sag in the Hailar Basin,Inner Mongolia,China for the first time.The former is distributed in the lower part of the Tongbomiao Formation and is characterized by abundant gymnosperm pollen and diverse fern spores.Among them,the gymnosperm pollen is dominated by Paleoconifer(4.98%-31.62%)and Cycadopite(8.55%-25.23%)pollen grains and also includes other pollen grains such as Classopollis,Parcisporites,Erlianpollis,Callialasporites,and Jiaohepollis.The fern spores in the former palynological assemblage contain Bayanhuasporite(0-8.96%),Granulatisporites(0.93%-6.97%),and some important Cretaceous genera,such as Cicatricosisporites,Concavissimisporites,Densoisporites,Hsuisporites,Foraminisporis,and Leptolepidites.The Cicatricosisporites-Cedripites-Perinopollenites palynological assemblage is distributed in the upper part of the Tongbomiao Formation.Gymnosperm(77.30%),Pinaceae(31.9%),and Paleoconiferus(19.02%)pollen predominate this palynological assemblage,and Quadraeculina,Erlianpollis,and Jiaohepollis pollen are also common in this assemblage.The fern spores in this palynological assemblage include abundant Cicatricosisporites(4.29%).Besides,Concavissimisporites,Aequitriradites,and Leptolepidites are also common in this palynological assemblage.No angiosperm pollen has been found in both palynological assemblages.The identification of both palynological assemblages provides important evidence for the biostratigraphic correlation between the Hailar Basin and its adjacent areas.It also enables the reconstructions of the Berriasian-Valanginian(Early Cretaceous)vegetation and the paleoclimate on the eastern mongolian plateau during 141-132 Ma.The vegetation reconstructed on the palynological data of the represented by Hailar Basin in eastern mongolian plateau(141.6-141.4 Ma),form conifer forest or conifer broad-leaved mixed fores

关键词： Tongbomiao Formation Palynological Assemblages Gymnosperm Berriasian-Valanginian Palaeovegetation Palaeoclimate Hailar Basin mongolian plateau China

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Climate and anthropogenic drivers of changes in abundance of C4 annuals and perennials in grasslands on the mongolian plateau

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Grassland Research 2022年第2期1卷 131-141页

作者： Hao Yang Karl Auerswald Xiaoying Gong Hans Schnyder Yongfei Bai Lehrstuhl für Grünlandlehre Technische Universität MünchenFreisingGermany School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhouChina State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change Institute of BotanyThe Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Background:C4 plants have increased substantially during the past several decades in the grasslands of the mongolian plateau due to regional warming.Here,we explore how the patterns of abundances of C4 annuals and C4 perennials change over space and time.Methods:A total of 280 sites with C4 plants were surveyed in four types of grasslands in 9 years.The relative biomasses of C4 plants(PC4),C4 annuals(PA4),and C4 perennials(PP4)were calculated.Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the drivers of changes in PA4 and PP4.Results:At the regional scale,PA4 on average was 11%(±19%,SD)and PP4 was 13%(±19%,SD).Spatially,C4 annuals dominated the C4 communities within an east–west belt region along 44°N and tended to spread toward northern latitudes(about 0.5°)and higher altitudes in the east mountainous areas.The abundance of C4 annuals decreased,while that of C4 perennials increased.The patterns of C4 annuals and C4 perennials were mainly controlled by temperature,growing season precipitation,and dynamics between the two life forms.Conclusions:C4 annuals exhibited competitive advantages in normal and wet years,while C4 perennials had competitive advantages in dry years.Grazing as a main human disturbance increased C4 annuals,but had no significant effect on C4 perennials.

关键词： C4 annuals and perennials C4 plants grazing growing season precipitation mongolian plateau temperature

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Origin of the spatial consistency of summer precipitation variability between the mongolian plateau and the mid-latitude East Asian summer monsoon region

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1199-1208页

作者： Jie CHEN Wei HUANG Qiong ZHANG Song FENG Key Laboratory of Western China s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden Department of Geosciences University of ArkansasFayetteville 72701USA

The mongolian plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.

关键词： mongolian plateau Mid-latitude EASM region Summer precipitation Decadal Consistent variability

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Spatio-temporal Variations in Drought with Remote Sensing from the mongolian plateau During 1982–2018

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Chinese Geographical Science 2020年第6期30卷 1081-1094页

作者： CAO Xiaoming Feng Yiming SHI Zhongjie Institute of Desertification Studies Chinese Academy of ForestryBeijing 100911China

The mongolian plateau is one of the regions most sensitive to climate change,the more obvious increase of temperature in 21 st century here has been considered as one of the important causes of drought and desertification.It is very important to understand the multi-year variation and occurrence characteristics of drought in the mongolian plateau to explore the ecological environment and the response mechanism of surface materials to climate change.This study examines the spatio-temporal variations in drought and its frequency of occurrence in the mongolian plateau based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR)Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)(1982–1999)and the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)(2000–2018)datasets;the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index(TVDI)was used as a drought evaluation index.The results indicate that drought was widespread across the mongolian plateau between1982 and 2018,and aridification incremented in the 21 st century.Between 1982 and 2018,an area of 164.38×10^4 km^2/yr suffered from drought,accounting for approximately 55.28%of the total study area.An area of approximately 150.06×10^4 km^2(51.43%)was subject to more than 160 droughts during 259 months of the growing seasons between 1982 and 2018.We observed variable frequencies of drought occurrence depending on land cover/land use types.Drought predominantly occurred in bare land and grassland,both of which accounting for approximately 79.47%of the total study area.These terrains were characterized by low vegetation and scarce precipitation,which led to frequent and extreme drought events.We also noted significant differences between the areal distribution of drought,drought frequency,and degree of drought depending on the seasons.In spring,droughts were widespread,occurred with a high frequency,and were severe;in autumn,they were localized,frequent,and severe;whereas,in summer,droughts were the most widespread and frequent,but less severe.The increase in temperature,decrease in precipitation

关键词： drought occurrence frequency Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index(TVDI) Land Surface Temperature-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(Ts-NDVI space) remote sensing mongolian plateau

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Assessing remotely sensed and reanalysis products in characterizing surface soil moisture in the mongolian plateau

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2021年第10期14卷 1255-1272页

作者： Min Luo Chula Sa Fanhao Meng Yongchao Duan Tie Liu Yuhai Bao College of Geographical Science Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhotPeople’s Republic of China Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Inner Mongolia Normal UniversityHohhotPeople’s Republic of China Binjiang College Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyWuxiPeople’s Republic of China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqiPeople’s Republic of China

Soil moisture(SM)plays a crucial role in the dynamics of coupled atmosphere,water,energy,and carbon cycles.In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution and variations of SM in the mongolian plateau were investigated for the period of 1982-2018 based on four gridded SM datasets.Taking the observed SM from 33 monitoring stations as a reference,the reliability of these four gridded products was validated,and the three-cornered hat(TCH)method was also applied to evaluate their uncertainties.Major results indicated that all these four products underestimated the SM in this region at different levels.The ERA-Interim SM performed much better than other three products,with a higher R of 0.53 and lower ubRMSE of 0.0378 m^(3)·m^(−3).Except for ECV,the surface SM exhibited a decreasing trend at−0.0004 to−0.0008 m^(3)·m^(−3)/decade in the warm season(from April to October)over the past 37 years.The greatest decreases in SM occurred in the summer season.Precipitation change plays a more important role in explaining the variations of SM than temperature reported by partial correlation analysis.The results of this study will benefit our understanding of the climate change effects and the protection of the ecological systems in this region.

关键词： Soil moisture mongolian plateau uncertainty gridded products

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