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An integrated assessment of technological pathways and socioeconomic impacts for sustainable power system transition in Indonesia Author links open overlay panel

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第6期15卷 1107-1120页

作者： Widodo Wahyu PURWANTO Djoni HARTONO Akhmad Herman YUNOWO Heri HERMAANSYAH Nadhilah REYSELIANI Ahmad SYAUQI Rosa Citra APRILIA Sustainable Energy Systems and Policy Research Cluster Universitas IndonesiaDepok 16424Indonesia Department of Chemical Engineering Faculty of EngineeringUniversitas IndonesiaDepok 16424Indonesia Department of Economics Faculty of Economics and BusinessUniversitas IndonesiaDepok 16424Indonesia Institute for Energy Transition Faculty of EngineeringUniversitas IndonesiaDepok 16424Indonesia Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering Faculty of EngineeringUniversitas IndonesiaDepok 16424Indonesia

The energy transition has unique and profound socioeconomic impacts for the developing and coal-producing countries,due to the distinctive country's *** overall development context and challenges comprising technological pathways,investment,value added,employment and inequality must be *** the case of Indonesia,as one of the world's largest coal-producing,the archipelagic nature with various island topography,sociocultural diversity as well as very high population really needs a comprehensive energy transition research considering the above aspects,which is so far still ***,this current study presents an integrated assessment of technological change and socioeconomics impact for power transition pathways in Indonesia using the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System(TIMES)and their socioeconomics implications using the miyazawa input–output model(MIOM).Four scenarios were applied namely business-as-usual(BAU),100%renewable energy(100%RE),Paris Agreement 1.5℃ without coal phase-out(PA1.5),and that of with coal phase-out(PA1.5PO).The results show that by 2060,100%RE without applying carbon capture and storage(CCS)creates an extreme power flexibility which requires ample energy storage but does not attain *** meet the 1.5℃ carbon budget,PA1.5 and PA1.5PO require substantial renewable energy deployment,particularly in utility-scale solar PV,energy storage,and low-carbon *** two scenarios exhibit a notable increase in total installed capacity,ranging 3.37–3.83 times higher than the BAU ***1.5PO,plays an increasing role natural gas as bridge fuel in advanced gas power from 2035 to its peak in *** scenarios require a higher installed capacity compared to BAU,corresponding to a substantial total investment cost of almost 2.5 times in *** MIOM results show that these scenarios have a stronger impact on household income and employment compared to ***,the impact on value added(VA)only surpasses BAU

关键词： Energy transition Power sector TIMES model Socioeconomic impacts miyazawa input-output model Indonesia

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