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Quantitative seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the mid-north segment of the north-south seismic belt

引用

Earthquake Research in China 2013年第3期27卷 331-343页

作者： Long Feng Jiang Changsheng Feng Jiangang Tang Lanlan Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake *** order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the north-south seismic belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake *** results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture ***,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting *** b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution *** b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 *** comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 *** low b-value Maqu segment,which is loc

关键词： Historical earthquake rupture zone Large earthquake risk seismicity mid-north segment of north-south seismic belt

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