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Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of northern asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 185-196页

作者： Jie WU Xue-Jie GAO Xian-Bing TANG Filippo GIORGI School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

mid-high latitude northern asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied *** used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in northern asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming ***4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 *** of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably *** and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming *** projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold *** future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming *** most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

关键词： mid-high latitudes of northern asia Köppen climate zones Global warming targets Regional climate model

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