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“Small　earthquake　modulation　window”　and　its　applications　in　medium－term　prediction

Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1995年第1期8卷 51-56页

作者：苏鸾声 1. Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province 250021 Jinan China

Based on the observations of many years, it has been found that “small earthquake modulation windows” exist inthe situation of some special geological structures, which respond sensitively to the variations of regional stressfields and the activities of earthquake swarms greater than moderate strong magnitude, and can supply some precursory information. More than two “small earthquake modulation windows” can also provide a general orientation of the first main earthquake of a earthquake cluster. Compared with “seismic window” based on frequency itis no doubt that the “modulation-window” has an unique characteristic of applicational significance to mediumterm earthquake prediction with a time scale of two or three years.

关键词： medium-term prediction small earthquake activity stress rield earthquake seismogenic window

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Research　on　TSIP　method　for　medium－term　earthquake　prediction

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Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition) 1995年第4期8卷 501-510页

作者：黄德瑜朱元清陈颙季颖 1. Centre for Analysis and prediction State Seismological Bureau 100036 Beijing China2. Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality 200062 Shanghai China3. State Seismological Bureau 100036 Beijing China

This paper introduces the space increased probability of strong earthquakes (SIP)-a new design based on the algorithm CN of time increased probability of strong earthquake (TIP). The authors have done a prediction research passing in review of eight strong earthquakes with M>6 in the last 20 years in East China. The result shows that six of the eight strong earthquakes were in the space-time domain of the time and space probability of strong earthquake (TSIP) prediction. The prediction accuracy is 75%, the space-time domain rate of the TSIP precaution is 5%, the diagnosed value of R is 0. 70. So the TSIP as a method of medium-term earthquake prediction has good practicality, efficiency and prospects of applying.

关键词： medium-term prediction Algorithm TSIP seismicity

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Gravity observations along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and an application to the Lushan MS 7.0 earthquake

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Earthquake Science 2013年第3期26卷 251-257页

作者： Wei-feng Liang Yun-feng Zhao Yun-ma Xu Yi-qing Zhu Shu-song Guo Fang Liu Lian Liu Second Monitoring Center China Earthquake Administration

This paper introduces relative and absolute gravity change observations in the eastern portion of the Tibetan Plateau. We analyze and discuss a change that occurred in 2010 in the gravity along the eastern margin of the plateau and the relationship between this change and the 2013 Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake. Our results show that：（1） before the Lushan MsT.0 earthquake, gravity anomalies along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau changed drastically. The Lushan earthquake occurred at the bend of the high gradient zone of gravity var- iation along the southern edge of the Longmenshan fault zone. （2） The 2013 Lushan earthquake occurred less than 100 km away from the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Lushan and Wenchuan are located at the center of a four- quadrant section with different gravity anomalies, which may suggest that restoration after the Wenchuan earthquake may have played a role in causing the Lushan earthquake. （3） A medium-term prediction based on changes in gravity anoma- lies was made before the Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake, in par- ticular, a prediction of epicenter location.

关键词： The eastern margin of the TibetanPlateau Gravity observation Gravity changeLushan earthquake medium-term prediction

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