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Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatorenal syndrome:A retrospective cohort study

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2021年第20期27卷 2615-2629页

作者： Xin-Yu Sheng Fei-Yan Lin Jian Wu Hong-Cui Cao State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases The First Affiliated HospitalZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhou 310003Zhejiang ProvinceChina National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases Hangzhou 310003Zhejiang ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Hepatorenal syndrome(HRS)is a severe complication of cirrhosis with high mortality,which necessitates accurate clinical ***,studies on prognostic factors and scoring systems to predict overall survival of HRS are not ***,a multicenter cohort study with a long span of time could be more *** To develop a novel and effective prognostic model for patients with HRS and clarify new prognostic *** We retrospectively enrolled 1667 patients from four hospitals,and 371 eligible patients were finally analyzed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for patients with *** were compared between survivors and non-survivors,and potential prognostic factors were selected according to the impact on 28-d *** in predicting 28-d mortality was compared between the novel and other scoring systems,including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD),Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(CLIF-SOFA),and Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis BAcute-on-Chronic Liver Failure(COSSH-ACLF).RESULTS Five prognostic factors,comprised of gender,international normalized ratio,mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration,neutrophil percentage,and stage,were integrated into a new score,GIMNS;stage is a binary variable defined by the number of failed *** was positively correlated with MELD,CLIFSOFA,and ***,it had better accuracy[area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC):0.830]than MELD(AUROC:0.759),CLIF-SOFA(AUROC:0.767),and COSSH-ACLF(AUROC:0.759)in the derivation cohort(Pcorpuscular hemoglobin concentration and stage were first proposed and found to be related to the mortality of ***,the GIM

关键词： Hepatorenal syndrome Prognostic factor mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration Mortality Scoring system Cohort study

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