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Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

引用

Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第3期14卷 558-570页

作者： RANA Santosh Kumar RANA Hum Kala GHIMIRE Suresh Kulllar SHRESTHA Krishna Kumar RANJITKAR Sailesh Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of EastAsia Kunming Institute of BotanyChinese Academy of SciencesKunming 650201China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Central Department of Botany Tribhuvan UniversityKirtipurKathmanduNepal World Agroforestry Centre East and Central Asia 132 Lanhei RdHeilongtanKunming 650201China

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） trajectories of the BCC-CSMI.1 model were used as the future （2050） projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.

关键词： Commercial exploitation Conservation Lily Fritillaria cirrhosa Lilium nepalense maxentmodelling Species distribution

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