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Improvement of the software for modeling the dynamics of epidemics and developing a user-friendly interface

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第3期8卷 806-821页

作者： Igor Nesteruk Institute of Hydromechanics National Academy of Sciences of UkraineKyivUkraine Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute KyivUkraine

The challenges humanity is facing due to the Covid-19 pandemic require timely and accurate forecasting of the dynamics of various epidemics to minimize the negative consequences for public health and the *** can use a variety of well-known and new mathematical models,taking into account a huge number of ***,complex models contain a large number of unknown parameters,the values of which must be determined using a limited number of observations,e.g.,the daily datasets for the accumulated number of *** experience in modeling the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that it is possible to apply the simplest SIR model,which contains 4 unknown *** of the original algo-rithm of the model parameter identification for the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in China,South Korea,Austria,Italy,Germany,France,Spain has shown its high accuracy in pre-dicting their duration and number of *** simulate different epidemic waves and take into account the incompleteness of statistical data,the generalized SIR model and algorithms for determining the values of its parameters were *** interference of the previous waves,changes in testing levels,quarantine or social behavior require constant monitoring of the epidemic dynamics and performing SIR simulations as often as possible with the use of a user-friendly *** tool will allow predicting the dynamics of any epidemic using the data on the number of diseases over a limited period(e.g.,14 days).It will be possible to predict the daily number of new cases for the country as a whole or for its separate region,to estimate the number of carriers of the infection and the probability of facing such a carrier,as well as to estimate the number of *** of three SIR simulations of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Japan in the summer of 2022 are presented and *** predicted accumulated and daily numbers of cases agree with the results of observations,especially f

关键词： COVID-19 pandemic Epidemic waves Epidemic dynamics in Japan mathematical modeling of infection diseases SIR model Parameter identification Statistical methods

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