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Estimating the Fresh Vegetables Demand System in Jordan： A Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System

Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology 2011年第3期5卷 322-331页

作者： A. S. Jabarin E. K. Al-Karablieh Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribus#wss Management Faculty of Ag~qc~tlture The University of Jordan P. O. Box13899 Amman 11942 Jordan

The main objective of this research is to estimate the different types of demand elasticities for the main fresh vegetables consumed in Jordan. The estimated elasticities can be used to measure the impacts of agricultural policies and can be used to predict future consumption in the context of food security in terms of access, availability, stability, and food quality. The reported demand estimates were obtained through the estimation of a Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand Systems （LA/AIDS） for Jordan fresh vegetable crops demand system using the most recent cross-sectional data of household expenditure survey in 2005. A censored regression method for the system of equations was used to analyze fresh vegetables consumption patterns. This method allows for inclusion of a large number of zero consumption for some foods through two-step demand system estimation. All of the own-price demand elasticities have the correct negative signs and statistically significant. According to the expenditure elasticity, tomato, cucumber, and potato are the necessity goods. The mean budget shares indicate that consumers spend 30 percent of their allocated budget to vegetables on tomatoes and potatoes. The green bean elasticity is the highest indicating that demand for beans is highly responsive to any changes in the price. The expenditure elasticities reveal that the demand on all vegetables is expected to grow over the coming few years. High own-price elasticities of all vegetables studied suggests that any changes in the prices of these crops could bring about a significant shift in fruits and vegetable constanption patterns.

关键词： Vegetable demand system demand elasticities LA/AIDS model marshallian and hicksian elasticities censored regression probit model.

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