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Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

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Journal of Arid Land 2022年第4期14卷 390-410页

作者： SUN Dingzhao LIANG Youjia PENG Shouzhang State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau Institute of Water and Soil ConservationChinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water ResourcesYangling 712100China School of Resources and Environmental Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhan 430070China Institute of Surveying and Mapping Guizhou Geology and Mineral Exploration BureauGuiyang 550018China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved markov-cellular automata(markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enha

关键词： water retention water yield land use/cover change climate change representative concentration pathway Markov-Cellular Automata model Loess Plateau

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