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Investigation into Recent Temperature and Rainfall trends in Mali Using mann-kendall trend test: Case Study of Bamako

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第3期11卷 155-172页

作者： Alikalifa Sanogo Roland Songotu Kabange Prince Appiah Owusu Bakary Issa Djire Racheal Fosu Donkoh Nasser Dia Department of Civil Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Technology Kumasi Technical University Kumasi Ghana Department of Mathematical Sciences Clark Atlanta University Atlanta USA

Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using mann-kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.

关键词： Sahel Countries Bamako Recent trends mann-kendall trend test Climate Change

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A method to predict rockburst using temporal trend test and its application

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第3期16卷 909-923页

作者： Yarong Xue Zhenlei Li Dazhao Song Xueqiu He Honglei Wang Chao Zhou Jianqiang Chen Aleksei Sobolev School of Civil and Resources Engineering University of Science and Technology BeijingBeijing100083China Zhong-an Academy of Safety Engineering Beijing100083China China Energy Group Xinjiang Energy Co. LtdUrumqi830027China Khabarovsk Federal Research Center of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences(KhFRC FEB RAS) 51 Turgenev StreetKhabarovsk680000Russia

Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety *** study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the mann-kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst *** methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for *** MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning *** employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference ***,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data *** results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual ***,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working *** providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of *** offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.

关键词： Rockburst Microseismicity Early warning mann-kendall trend test Confusion matrix Multi-indices fusion

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Can MODIS Detect trends in Aerosol Optical Depth over Land?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第2期35卷 135-145页

作者： Xuehua FAN Xiang'ao XIA Hongbin CHEN Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences School of the Earth Science Chinese Academy of Science University Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） sensor onboard NASA＇s Aqua satellite has been collect- ing valuable data about the Earth system for more than 14 years, and one of the benefits of this is that it has made it possible to detect the long-term variation in aerosol loading across the globe. However, the long-term aerosol optical depth （AOD） trends derived from MODIS need careful validation and assessment, especially over land. Using AOD products with at least 70 months＇ worth of measurements collected during 2002-15 at 53 Aerosol Robotic Network （AERONET） sites over land, mann-kendall （MK） trends in AOD were derived and taken as the ground truth data for evaluating the corresponding results from MOD｜S onboard Aqua. The results showed that the AERONET AOD trends over all sites in Europe and North Amer- ica, as well as most sites in Africa and Asia, can be reproduced by MODIS/Aqua. However, disagreement in AOD trends between MODIS and AERONET was found at a few sites in Australia and South America. The AOD trends calculated from AERONET instantaneous data at the MODIS overpass times were consistent with those from AERONET daily data, which suggests that the AOD trends derived from satellite measurements of 1-2 overpasses may be representative of those from daily measurements.

关键词： MODIS AERONET Aerosol Optical Depth mann-kendall trend test

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Spatial and temporal variability of water discharge in the Yellow River Basin over the past 60 years

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2012年第6期22卷 1013-1033页

作者：刘锋陈沈良董平彭俊 State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal University Division of Civil Engineering School of EngineeringPhysics and MathematicsCollege of ArtScience and EngineeringUniversity of Dundee

Water discharge data of the Yellow River over the past 60 years was analyzed using the continuous wavelet transform （CWT） and mann-kendall （MK） test methods to identify spatial and temporal variation patterns. Potential connections between water discharge in the Yellow River Basin and El Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were also examined by the cross wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. CWT results show that the periodic oscillations in water discharges had occurred at the temporal scales of 1-, 2- to 4-, 6- to 8- and 10- to 22-year. It was also found that at the annual timescale （1-year） the phase relations between water discharge and ENSO were indistinct probably due to the strong influence by human disturbances. However, over the longer time scales, the phase relation becomes much clearer with an anti-phase relation being found mainly at inter-annual scale （2- to 8-year） and in-phase relation at decadal scale （16- to 22-year）. According to the MK test results water discharge at most stations except Tangnaihai have decreased significantly and the abrupt change occurred in the mid-1980s or the early 1990s. The changes in water discharge were found to be influenced by both climate changes and human activities. Before 1970 the change in water discharge was positively related to precipitation variations in the river basin, but after 1970 the decrease in water discharge has been largely caused by various human activities including constructions of reservoirs, water abstraction and water-soil conservation with water abstraction being the main cause.

关键词： spatial-temporal variability water discharge Yellow River influencing factors mann-kendall trend test wavelet transform analysis

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Effects of precipitation variation on severe acid rain in southern China

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2009年第4期19卷 489-501页

作者：谢志清杜银曾燕李亚春严明良焦圣明 Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology CAS

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the regional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. （1） The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SOz and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. （2） Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. （3） The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer expanded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe ac

关键词： acid rain spatial and temporal variations in seasonal precipitation climate change rate mann-kendall trend test

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Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

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Journal of Arid Land 2021年第1期13卷 56-70页

作者： Sanim BISSENBAYEVA Jilili ABUDUWAILI Assel SAPAROVA Toqeer AHMED State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Al-Farabi Kazakh National University Almaty 050040Kazakhstan Institute of Geography Satbayev UniversityAlmaty 050010Kazakhstan Centre for Climate Research and Development COMSATS University IslamabadTarlai Kalan 45550Pakistan

In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river *** Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this *** runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human ***,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources *** long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and mann-kendall trend *** was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof *** of river runoff variations occurred in the year around ***,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased *** employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential *** was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation *** observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective.

关键词： river runoff variations water resources management land use/land cover changes mann-kendall trend test hydrological sensitivity analysis Aral Sea Central Asia

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Spatio-Temporal Variation Analysis of Precipitation during 1960-2008 in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

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Open Journal of Modern Hydrology 2016年第2期6卷 115-127页

作者： Lifeng Yuan Guishan Yang Hengpeng Li Zengxin Zhang College of Geography & Biological Information Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications Nanjing China USDA ARS National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory West Lafayette IN United States Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences Nanjing China Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing China

Long-term monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2008 at 17 rain stations are analyzed to explore spatio-temporal variation of the seasonal and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin, China, using anomaly analysis, simple linear regressive technique, mann-kendall trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform. The results indicate that: (1) increasing precipitation trend is observed in summer and winter, while decreasing precipitation trend is identified in spring and autumn, and the above mentioned precipitation trends are not statistically significant;(2) changing trend of the areal average annual precipitation is non-significantly increasing, and increasing trend happens in almost the whole basin except in western and south-eastern small parts;(3) the spatial distribution of the seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies between 1991-2008 and 1960-2008 is similar to that of seasonal and annual precipitation trend during 1960-2008;(4) three main time-frequency distributions are observed in annual precipitation series during 1960- 2008, and they are 18 - 26 years, 8 - 14 years and 2 - 8 years, respectively;accordingly, there are three main periods in annual precipitation series, and they are 11-year, 22-year and 5-year respectively. This result will be helpful for further research on availability, scientific management and assessment of the water resources of the Poyang Lake basin.

关键词： Precipitation Poyang Lake Basin mann-kendall trend test Continuous Wavelet Transform

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