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Validation of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure risk score for the prediction of 1-year mortality in a Chinese cohort

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Chinese Medical Journal 2022年第23期135卷 2829-2835页

作者： Duo Xu Yanjing Dong Bo Zhang Li Li Chenyang Jiang Department of Cardiology Sir Run Run Shaw HospitalZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouZhejiang 3100016China Department of Cardiology CHC International HospitalCixiZhejiang 315310China

Background: The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score was developed in 2013 to predict survival in heart failure (HF) patients. However, it has yet to be validated in a Chinese population. Our study aimed to investigate the ability of the score to predict 1-year mortality in a Chinese population.Methods: Consecutive patients with HF were retrospectively selected from the inpatient electronic medical records of the cardiology department in a regional hospital in China. A total integer score was calculated for each enrolled patient based on the value of each risk factor in the MAGGIC scoring system. Each enrolled patient was followed for at least 1 year. The observational endpoint of this study was all-cause mortality. The predictive ability of the MAGGIC score was assessed by comparing observed and predicted mortality within 1 year.Results: Between January 2018 and December 2020, a total of 635 patients were included in the study: 57 (9.0%) of whom died within 1 year after discharge. The average age of all patients was 74.6 ± 11.2 years, 264 of them (41.6%) were male, and the average left ventricular ejection fraction was 50.7% ± 13.2%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.840 (95% confidence interval: 0.779, 0.901), which indicated a fair discriminatory ability of the score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test result (χ^(2) = 12.902, degree of freedom = 8,P = 0.115) indicated that the MAGGIC score had good calibration. The decision curve analysis showed that the MAGGIC score yielded a good clinical net benefit and net reduction in interventions.Conclusions: This validation of the MAGGIC score showed that it has a good ability to predict 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with HF after discharge. Due to regional and inter-hospital differences, external validation studies need to be further confirmed in other centers.

关键词： Validation Risk prediction MAGGIC Heart failure Mortality Chinese

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年轻患者的心力衰竭荟萃分析(MAGGIC)

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中国心血管杂志 2014年第6期 1-1页

作者：郑刚刘德平何青于雪

全球慢性心力衰竭荟萃分析（MAGGIC）包含了24项前瞻性观察研究和7项随机临床试验,用于研究年轻心力衰竭患者的临床特点、治疗与预后。患者按年龄分成6组:<40岁（876例）,40;9岁（2 638例）,50;9岁（6 894例）,60;9岁（12 071例）,70;9... 详细信息

全球慢性心力衰竭荟萃分析（MAGGIC）包含了24项前瞻性观察研究和7项随机临床试验,用于研究年轻心力衰竭患者的临床特点、治疗与预后。患者按年龄分成6组:<40岁（876例）,40;9岁（2 638例）,50;9岁（6 894例）,60;9岁（12 071例）,70;9岁（13 368例）和≥80岁（6 079例）。在总计41 926例患者中,分别有2.1%、8.4%和24.8%

关键词：年轻患者心力衰竭 MAGGIC 荟萃分析

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