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A Heterogeneous Sampling Strategy to Model Earthquake‑Triggered landslides

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第4期14卷 636-648页

作者： Hui Yang Peijun Shi Duncan Quincey Wenwen Qi Wentao Yang School of Soil and Water Conservation Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of Geography University of LeedsLeeds LS29JTUK National Institute of Natural hazards Beijing 100085China Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal UniversityXining 810016China

Regional modeling of landslide hazards is an essential tool for the assessment and management of risk in mountain *** studies that have focused on modeling earthquake-triggered landslides report high prediction ***,it is common to use a validation strategy with an equal number of landslide and non-landslide samples,scattered homogeneously across the study ***,there are overestimations in the epicenter area,and the spatial pattern of modeled locations does not agree well with real *** order to improve landslide hazard mapping,we proposed a spatially heterogeneous non-landslide sampling strategy by considering local ratios of landslide to non-landslide *** landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake on the eastern Tibetan Plateau were used as an *** assess the performance of the new strategy,we trained two random forest models that shared the same *** frst was trained using samples from the new heterogeneous strategy,and the second used the traditional *** each case the spatial match between modeled and measured(interpreted)landslides was examined by scatterplot,with a 2 km-by-2 km *** the traditional approach achieved higher AUC_(ROC)(0.95)accuracy than the proposed one(0.85),the coefcient of determination(R^(2))for the new strategy(0.88)was much higher than for the traditional strategy(0.55).Our results indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms the traditional one when comparing against landslide inventory *** work demonstrates that higher prediction accuracies in landslide hazard modeling may be deceptive,and validation of the modeled spatial pattern should be *** proposed method may also be used to improve the mapping of precipitation-induced *** of the proposed strategy could beneft precise assessment of landslide risks in mountain environments.

关键词： Earthquake-triggered landslides landslide hazard modeling Machine learning Model validation Sampling strategy Tibetan Plateau

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