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Multi-temporal analysis of past and future land cover change in the highly urbanized state of Selangor,Malaysia

Ecological Processes 2022年第1期11卷 93-107页

作者： Majid Azari Lawal Billa Andy Chan Department of Civil Engineering University of Nottingham MalaysiaJalan Broga43500 SemenyihSelangorMalaysia School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences University of Nottingham MalaysiaJalan BrogaSelangor 43500 SemenyihMalaysia

Background:This study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover,and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor,*** study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller(LCM)tool of TerrSet *** cover maps of 1999,2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes,namely water,natural vegetation,agriculture,built-up land and cleared land.A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map *** Area Under the Curve(AUC)value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics(TOC)and higher percentage of components of agreement(Hits+Correct rejection)compared to components of disagreement(Misses+False alarm+Wrong hits)indicated successful validation of the ***:The results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km^(2)(7.5%),and agricultural land 285.5 km^(2)(3.5%),whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km^(2)(10.2%).The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend,where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km^(2)(8.9%),and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km^(2)(0.7%),leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km^(2)(8.1%)for the period 2017 to *** spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are ***:The future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban *** results of this study can be used by policy makers,urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.

关键词： land cover modelling land use and land cover land change modeller Markov chain model Selangor Malaysia

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