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Projection on precipitation frequency of different intensities and precipitation amount in the lancang-mekong river basin in the 21st century

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第2期12卷 162-171页

作者： SUN Chang XIAO Zi-Niu Minh NGUYEN State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China Land and Water Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research OrganizationClaytonVic3168Australia

In the lancang‒mekong river basin(LMRB),agriculture,dominating the local economy,faces increasing challenges in water supply under climate *** projection of future precipitation in this basin is essential for understanding the *** this study,the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model was applied to project the LMRB *** with the historical period(1986e2005),we analyzed the changes of both the projected precipitation amount and the frequency of rainless(100 mm d1)for three periods,namely the near-term(2016e2035),mid-term(2046e2065),and long-term(2080e2099).The results indicate that the precipitation amount during the wet season(AprileOctober)is expected to increase in most areas of the basin for the three *** for the precipitation during the dry season(NovembereMarch),an increase is projected in most areas for the near-term,while an increase in the lower reach of the basin and a decrease in the upper and middle reach for the mid-term and *** precipitation reduction is expected to be greatest in Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,and Yunnan province of China for the *** frequency of precipitation in different intensities has prominent regional and temporal *** the wet season,the days of rainless and light rain are expected to decrease in the middle reach,whereas the days of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm *** feature is especially strong in southern Thailand,southern Laos and Cambodia in the near-term and in Laos and Thailand for the mid-term and *** the dry season,there are projected increasing rainless days and decreasing days of precipitation for the other intensities in the middle reach,and opposite in the rest area of the *** projected precipitation changes have potential various impact in different parts of the *** middle re

关键词： Precipitation projection lancang‒mekong river basin Precipitation frequency Precipitation amount Precipitation intensity

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