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Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China,2005–2020

Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2023年第2期36卷 117-126页

作者： DONG Zhe YAO Hong Yan YU Shi Cheng HUANG Fei LIU Jian Jun ZHAO Yan Lin WANG Qi Qi Epidemiology Office Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China

Objective To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent *** Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System(TBIMS)from 2005 to 2020,we calculated the annual percentage change(APC)using the joinpoint regression *** From 2005 to 2020,a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China,with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 *** age standardization rate(ASR)continued to decline from 116.9(/100,000)in 2005 to 47.6(/100,000)in 2020,with an average annual decrease of5.6%[APC=-5.6,95%confidence interval(CI):-7.0 to-4.2].The smallest decline occurred in2011–2018(APC=-3.4,95%CI:-4.6 to-2.3)and the largest decrease in 2018–2020(APC=-9.2,95%CI:-16.4 to-1.3).From 2005 to 2020,the ASR in males(159.8 per 100,000 in 2005,72.0 per 100,000 in2020)was higher than that in females(62.2 per 100,000 in 2005,32.3 per 100,000 in 2020),with an average annual decline of 6.0%for male and 4.9%for *** average notified incidence was the highest among older adults(65 years and over)(182.3/100,000),with an average annual decline of6.4%;children(0–14 years)were the lowest(4.8/100,000),with an average annual decline of 7.3%,but a significant increase of 3.3%between 2014 and 2020(APC=3.3,95%CI:1.4 to 5.2);middle-aged(35–64years)decreased by 5.8%;and youth(15–34 years)decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%.The average ASR in rural areas(81.3/100,000)is higher than that in urban areas(76.1/100,000).The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5%and 6.3%in urban *** China had the highest average ASR(103.2/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%,while North China had the lowest(56.5/100,000),with an average annual decline of 5.9%.The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3(/100,000),with the smallest annual decline(APC=-4.5,95%CI:-5.5 to

关键词： Tuberculosis Notified incidence joinpoint regression model Trends China

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Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province,China,1990-2021

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Infectious Disease modelling 2023年第3期8卷 832-841页

作者： Kang Fang Yingying Shi Zeyu zhao Yunkang Zhao Yichao Guo Buasivamu Abudunaibi Huimin Qu Qiao Liu Guodong Kang Zhiguo Wang Jianli Hu Tianmu Chen State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics School of Public HealthXiamen UniversityXiamen City361102Fujian ProvincePeople's Republic of China Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Nanjing CityPeople's Republic of China

Background:The incidence of hepatitis B virus(HBV)has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination,but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of ***:The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were *** incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering,and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model(APC).Results:joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and *** addition,the results of the APC model showed that the age,period,and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV,and the incidence was higher in males than in *** incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years(mean:21.76/100,000),especially in males(mean:31.53/100,000)than in females(mean:11.67/100,000).Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age(mean:21.40/100,000),especially males(mean:31.17/100,000)than females(mean:11.63/100,000).The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the ***:The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend,but the disease burden in males was higher than that in *** incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of *** targeted prevention and control measures should be imple-mented for males and the elderly.

关键词： HBV joinpoint regression model Age-period-cohort model Systematic clustering

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Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen

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Infectious Disease modelling 2024年第4期9卷 1276-1288页

作者： Ruixin Zhang Hongfei Mi Tingjuan He Shuhao Ren Renyan Zhang Liansheng Xu Mingzhai Wang Chenghao Su School of Public Health Xiamen UniversityXiamen CityFujian ProvinceChina Department of Public Health Zhongshan Hospital(Xiamen)Fudan UniversityXiamen CityFujian ProvinceChina Department of Endemic Disease and Chronic Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control Xiamen Center for Disease Control and PreventionXiamen CityFujian ProvinceChina Department of Occupational Health and Poison Control Xiamen Center for Disease Control and PreventionXiamen CityFujian ProvinceChina

Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to ***:Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention(CISDCP).The joinpoint regression model analyzed temporal trends,while the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model assessed the effects of age,period,and cohort on hepatitis B incidence *** also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive(NNAR)model,Bayesian Structural Time Series(BSTS)model,Prophet,Exponential Smoothing(ETS)model,Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model,and Hybrid model,selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five ***:Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend,with rates higher in men than in *** incidence rates were observed in adults,particularly in the 30-39 age ***,the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining ***,in the best-performing NNAR(10,1,6)[12]model,the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023,increasing to 5314 by 2027.

关键词： Hepatitis B Temporal trends Prediction joinpoint regression model Age-period-cohort model Neural network autoregressive model

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