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interannual variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2023年第4期29卷 431-447页

作者：薛鑫吴燕星陈镇刘润赵志军 Institute for Environmental and Climate Research Jinan UniversityGuangzhou 511443 China Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality Guangzhou 511443 China School of Information Science and Technology Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 China

The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH)days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health.This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem.The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations,indicating a significant upward trend.Additionally,DH events were observed to occur frequently.The number of DH days increased during 1970-1990,decreased from 1991 to 1997,and stayed stable after 1997.The key climate factors affecting the interannual variability of the number of DH days were the Indian Ocean Basin warming(IOBW)in spring and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM).Compared with the negative phase of IOBW,in the positive phase of IOBW,500 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential height enhanced,the West Pacific subtropical high strengthened and extended abnormally to the west,more solar radiation reached the surface,surface outgoing longwave radiation increased,and there was an anomalous anticyclone in eastern South China.The atmospheric circulation characteristics of the positive and negative phases of ESAM were opposite to those of IOBW,and the abnormal circulation of the positive(negative)phases of ESAM was unfavorable(favorable)for the increase in the number of DH days.A long-term prediction model for the number of summer DH days was established using multiple linear regression,incorporating the key climate factors.The correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted number of DH days was 0.65,and the root-mean-square error was 2.8.In addition,independent forecasts for 2019 showed a deviation of just 1 day.The results of the independent recovery test confirmed the stability of the model,providing evidence that climatic factors did have an impact on DH days in South China.

关键词： dry and hot days interannual variation climate factors statistical prediction

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Interdecadal Change in the interannual variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2022年第1期28卷 57-70页

作者：詹鸿宇陈锐丹蓝铭 Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies/School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China School of Marine Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

关键词： western North Pacific subtropical high interdecadal change interannual variation tropical sea surface temperature ENSO

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The connection of phytoplankton biomass in the Marguerite Bay polynya of the western Antarctic Peninsula to the Southern Annular Mode

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 35-47页

作者： Ning Jiang Zhaoru Zhang Ruifeng Zhang Chuning Wang Meng Zhou School of Oceanography Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China Key Laboratory for Polar Science Polar Research Institute of ChinaMinistry of Natural ResourcesShanghai 200136China

Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hotspots in the Southern Ocean that support the abundance of hightrophic-level predators and are important for carbon cycling in the high-latitude oceans.In this study,we examined the interannual variation of summertime phytoplankton biomass in the Marguerite Bay polynya(MBP)in the western Antarctic Peninsula area,and linked such variability to the Southern Annular Mode(SAM)that dominated the southern hemisphere extratropical climate variability.Combining satellite data,atmosphere reanalysis products and numerical simulations,we found that the interannual variation of summer chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration in the MBP is significantly and negatively correlated with the spring SAM index,and weakly correlated with the summer SAM index.The negative relation between summer Chl-a and spring SAM is due to weaker spring vertical mixing under a more positive SAM condition,which would inhibit the supply of iron from deep layers into the surface euphotic layer.The negative relation between spring mixing and spring SAM results from greater precipitation rate over the MBP region in positive SAM phase,which leads to lower salinity in the ocean surface layer.The coupled physical-biological mechanisms between SAM and phytoplankton biomass revealed in this study is important for us to predict the future variations of phytoplankton biomasses in Antarctic polynyas under climate change.

关键词： Marguerite Bay polynya phytoplankton biomass Southern Annular Mode mixed layer depth interannual variation

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Plant life form determines spatiotemporal variability and climate response of plant seed rain in subtropical forests

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Forest Ecosystems 2024年第2期11卷 193-201页

作者： Yuyang Xie Zehao Shen Xuejing Wang Liu Yang Jie Zhang MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes Institute of EcologyCollege of Urban and Environmental SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing100871China

Spatiotemporal variation of seed rain reflects the response of plants in terms of their reproductive strategy to environmental gradients.In this study,we collected seeds from four sites in the Dalaoling Nature Reserve,Hubei Province,China,between 2011 and 2014,measured seed output and seed mass as seed rain traits,and compared their interannual and elevational variation.Then,we ran phylogenetic generalized mixed linear models(PGLMMs) to explore the effects of temperature and precipitation as well as interspecific differences on seed rain,and fitted the best regression models for seed rain vs.weather of canopy and understory species.The results showed no correlation between values of seed output and seed mass.However,the variation of the two traits showed significantly positive correlation.Seed output of canopy species generally decreased with increasing elevation,and showed significant interannual difference;however,seed output of understory species and seed mass for both canopy and understory species did not show consistency tends along elevational or in interannual variation.Seed output was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation,while seed mass mainly varied due to interspecific differences.Weather explained more the variation of the seed output of canopy species than that of understory species,with R^(2) values of 43.0%and 29.9%,respectively.These results suggested that canopy plants contributed more to the reproductive dynamics of the whole communities,and the canopy's buffer effect on the underground weakened the response of understory plants to weather variation in terms of their reproductive strategy.

关键词： Seed rain Seed output Seed mass Elevation interannual variation Lifeform

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The Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Cloud Types and Phases in the Arctic Based on CloudSat and CALIPSO Cloud Classification Products

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 310-324页

作者： Yue SUN Huiling YANG Hui XIAO Liang FENG Wei CHENG Libo ZHOU Weixi SHU Jingzhe SUN Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms(LACS) and Department of Lower Atmospheric Observation Research(LAOR)Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS)Beijing 100049China Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology Beijing 100029China

The cloud type product 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR based on CloudSat and CALIPSO from June 2006 to May 2017 is used to examine the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of eight cloud types(high cloud, altostratus, altocumulus, stratus, stratocumulus, cumulus, nimbostratus, and deep convection) and three phases(ice,mixed, and water) in the Arctic. Possible reasons for the observed interannual variability are also discussed. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) More water clouds occur on the Atlantic side, and more ice clouds occur over continents.(2)The average spatial and seasonal distributions of cloud types show three patterns: high clouds and most cumuliform clouds are concentrated in low-latitude locations and peak in summer;altostratus and nimbostratus are concentrated over and around continents and are less abundant in summer;stratocumulus and stratus are concentrated near the inner Arctic and peak during spring and autumn.(3) Regional averaged interannual frequencies of ice clouds and altostratus clouds significantly decrease, while those of water clouds, altocumulus, and cumulus clouds increase significantly.(4) Significant features of the linear trends of cloud frequencies are mainly located over ocean areas.(5) The monthly water cloud frequency anomalies are positively correlated with air temperature in most of the troposphere, while those for ice clouds are negatively correlated.(6) The decrease in altostratus clouds is associated with the weakening of the Arctic front due to Arctic warming, while increased water vapor transport into the Arctic and higher atmospheric instability lead to more cumulus and altocumulus clouds.

关键词： CloudSat and CALIPSO cloud type cloud phase temporal and spatial distribution interannual variation

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interannual variation of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2012年第6期29卷 1279-1291页

作者：高建芸李天明 Fujian Climate Center China Meteorological Administration International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii

The interannual variability of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone （MTC） events during June-October in the western North Pacific （WNP） was examined for the period 1979-2006. The number of the MTC events ranged from 2 to 9 per year, exhibiting a remarkable year-to-year variation. Seven active and seven inactive MTC years were identified. Compared to the inactive years, tropical cyclone genesis locations extended farther to the east and in the meridional direction during the active MTC years. A composite analysis shows that inactive MTC years were often associated with the E1 Nifio decaying phase, as warm SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific in the preceding winter transitioned into cold sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the concurrent summer. Associated with the SST evolution were suppressed low-level cyclonic vorticity and weakened convection in the WNP monsoon region. In addition to the mean flow difference~ significant differences between active and inactive MTC years were also found in the strength of the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation （ISO）. Compared with inactive MTC years, ISO activity was much stronger along the equator and in the WNP region during active MTC years. Both westwardand northward-propagating ISO spectrums strengthened during active MTC years compared to inactive years. The combined mean state and ISO activity changes may set up a favorable environment for the generation of MTC events.

关键词： multiple tropical cyclone events interannual variation

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interannual variation of nutrients along a transect across the Kuroshio and shelf area in the East China Sea over 40 years

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2018年第1期36卷 62-76页

作者：胡莹英郭新宇赵亮 Center for Marine Environmental Studies Ehime University Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology Ministry of Education Ocean University of China College of Environmental Science and Engineering Ocean University of China College of Marine and Environmental Sciences Tianjin University of Science and Technology

Long-term datasets of water temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen,phosphate and nitrate from 1973 to 2013 were used to study interannual variations of these parameters along a transect(section PN)across the Kuroshio and shelf area in the East China Sea.Water temperature and salinity at depths of 0–200 m showed a low-high-low-high pattern over the 40-year period.Water temperature and salinity at 500 m were relatively high from 1985 to 1990 and decreased continuously thereafter.Salinity at 800 m was lowest around 1993 and increased thereafter.Nutrients were highest between 1980 and 1985.After 1985,nutrients at 500 m were increasing.The range of variation in nutrients was large before 1985 and the magnitude increased with greater depths.Apparent oxygen utilization at 500 m depth was decreasing before 1990 and started to increase after 1992.Significant changes after 1990 at 500 m depth may be due to the upward trend of the upper boundary of Kuroshio intermediate water.interannual variation of water temperature,salinity,dissolved oxygen,phosphate and nitrate along section PN has a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index.

关键词： Kuroshio East China Sea interannual variation nutrient phosphate nitrate

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interannual variation OF INDEX OF EAST ASIAN LAND-SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND ITS RELATION TO MONSOON CIRCULATION AND RAINFALL OVER CHINA

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2001年第1期15卷 71-85页

作者：孙秀荣陈隆勋何金海 Shanghai Typhoon Institute Shanghai 200030 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 Department of Atmospheric Sciences.Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Nanjing 210044

This paper proposes an index of land-sea thermal difference(ILSTD)that describes its zonal and meridional strength responsible for East Asian monsoon circulation to study its relation to the East Asian monsoon circulation and the summer rainfall over China on an interannual basis.Results are as follows:(1)ILSTD can be used to measure the strength of East Asian summer monsoon in such a way that the strong(weak)ILSTD years are associated with strong(weak)summer monsoon circulation.(2)The index also reflects well summer rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of China. In the strong index years,rain belt is mainly located over the northern China,and serious drought emerges in the Jianghuai valleys and mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,along with increase of rainfall in North and South China,but in the weak years it is contrary.(3)Besides,the index has obvious QBO and quasi 4-year oscillations,but the periods and amplitudes have significant changes on an interdecadal basis.

关键词： index of land-sea thermal difference(ILSTD) interannual variation East Asian summer monsoon summer rainfall over China

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Numerical Simulation of the Impact of Vegetation Index on the interannual variation of Summer Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2005年第6期22卷 865-876页

作者：李伟平薛永康 Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 Department of Geography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of California at Los Angeles California USA

Two sets of numerical experiments using the coupled National Center for Environmental Prediction General Circulation Model （NCEP/GCM T42L18） and the Simplified Simple Biosphere land surface scheme （SSiB） were carried out to investigate the climate impacts of fractional vegetation cover （FVC） and leaf area index （LAI） on East Asia summer precipitation, especially in the Yellow River Basin （YRB）. One set employed prescribed FVC and LAI which have no interannual variations based on the climatology of vegetation distribution; the other with FVC and LAI derived from satellite observations of the International Satellite Land Surface Climate Project （ISLSCP） for 1987 and 1988. The simulations of the two experiments were compared to study the influence of FVC, LAI on summer precipitation interannual variation in the YRB. Compared with observations and the NCEP reanalysis data, the experiment that included both the effects of satellite-derived vegetation indexes and sea surface temperature （SST） produced better seasonal and interannual precipitation variations than the experiment with SST but no interannual variations in FVC and LAI, indicating that better representations of the vegetation index and its interannual variation may be important for climate prediction. The difference between 1987 and 1988 indicated that with the increase of FVC and LAI, especially around the YRB, surface albedo decreased, net surface radiation increased, and consequently local evaporation and precipitation intensified. Further more, surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature and its diurnal variation decreased around the YRB in response to more vegetation. The decrease of surface-emitting longwave radiation due to the cooler surface outweighed the decrease of surface solar radiation income with more cloud coverage, thus maintaining the positive anomaly of net surface radiation. Further study indicated that moisture flux variations associated with changes in the general circulation also contributed to the precipitation interannual variati

关键词： numerical simulation vegetation index interannual variation summer precipitation Yellow River basiu

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Influence of Monsoon over the Warm Pool on interannual variation on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2008年第2期25卷 319-328页

作者：陈光华黄荣辉 Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The relationship between the interannual variation in tropical cyclone （TC） activity over the western North Pacific （WNP） and the thermal state over the warm pool （WP） is examined in this paper. The results show that the subsurface temperature in the WP is well correlated with TC geographical distribution and track type. Their relation is linked by the East Asian monsoon trough. During the warm years, the westward-retreating monsoon trough creates convergence and vorticity fields that are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis in the northwest of the WNP, whereas more TCs concentrating in the southeast result from eastward penetration of the monsoon trough during the cold years. The steering flows at 500 hPa lead to a westward displacement track in the warm years and recurving prevailing track in the cold years. The two types of distinct processes in the monsoon environment triggering tropical cyclogenesis are hypothesized by composites centered for TC genesis location corresponding to two kinds of thermal states of the WP. During the warm years, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillation is active in the west of the WNP such that eastward-propagating westerlies cluster TC genesis in that region. In contrast, during the cold years, the increased cyclogenesis in the southeast of the WNP is mainly associated with tropical depression type disturbances transiting from equatorially trapped mixed Rossby gravity waves. Both of the processes may be fundamental mechanisms for the inherent interannual variation in TC activity over the WNP.

关键词： monsoon warm pool interannual variation tropical cyclone

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