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Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on intensity change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones:A Numerical Study

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 106-117页

作者：杨昕玮王玉清王慧徐晶占瑞芬 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 101408 China Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center School of Earth and Ocean Science and TechnologyUniversity of Hawaii at ManoaHonoluluHI 96822 USA Qingdao Joint Institute of Marine Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationQingdaoShandong 266034 China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438 China

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone(TC)vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle(ERC)of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)*** show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer *** is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall,which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity *** contrast,the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer *** led to stronger boundary layer inflow,stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall,and suppressed convective activity outside the outer *** resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall,followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the *** study demonstrates that accurate initialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ***,monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.

关键词： tropical cyclones concentric eyewall inner eyewall and outer eyewall eyewall replacement cycle intensity change

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Revisiting the response of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity change to vertical wind shear in different directions

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第3期14卷 42-48页

作者： Xiuji Liang Qingqing Li Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina

The effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)directions on the change in western North Pacific tropical cyclone(TC)intensity is revisited in this *** show that the differences in the correlations between VWS in different orientations and the change in TC nondimensional intensity highly diminish,although slight differences are still *** subtle differences in the correlations are likely associated with different synoptic-scale patterns at upper and lower *** result suggests that,in addition to thermodynamic effects,dynamic roles of the synoptic-scale patterns associated with the VWS should also be taken into account when the authors examine how VWS in different directions affects TC intensity change.

关键词： Tropical cyclone intensity change Vertical wind shear direction Large-scale pattern

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A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 2023年第3期12卷 200-215页

作者： Joshua B.Wadler Johna E.Rudzin Benjamin Jaimes de la Cruz Jie Chen Michael Fischer Guanghua Chen Nannan Qin Brian Tang Qingqing Li Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Department of Applied Aviation SciencesDaytona BeachFLUSA Mississippi State University Department of GeosciencesStarkvilleMSUSA University of Miami Department of Ocean SciencesMiamiFLUSA Princeton University Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences ProgramPrincetonNJUSA University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAAAtlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological LaboratoryHurricane Research DivisionMiamiFLUSA Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjingChina University at Albany State University of New YorkDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental SciencesAlbanyNYUSA Nanjing University of Information and Science Technology NanjingChina

Over the past four years,signiﬁcant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors inﬂuence tropical cyclone(TC)intensity *** on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heatﬂuxes and that ocean salinity-stratiﬁcation plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity *** wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment,which controls the onset of signiﬁcant TC intensiﬁ*** due to upper-level outﬂow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear,making for TC intensiﬁ*** TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensiﬁcation in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection,but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensiﬁcation in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased *** effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud *** radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature proﬁle and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and *** spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region,where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating,promoting more intensiﬁ*** landfalling TCs,the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture,and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moistureﬂ*** new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors inﬂuence TC intensity changes.

关键词： Tropical cyclone External inﬂuence intensity change Review

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Understanding of the Effect of Climate change on Tropical Cyclone intensity:A Review

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第2期39卷 205-221页

作者： Liguang WU Haikun ZHAO Chao WANG Jian CAO Jia LIANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research InstituteZhuhai 518057China

The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few *** theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate,there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate *** a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity,this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity,historical datasets used for intensity trend detection,environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity,detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change,and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone *** addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets,intertwined natural variabilities,the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment,and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones,it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.

关键词： tropical cyclone climate change intensity change

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Numerical Study of the Influences of a Monsoon Gyre on intensity changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom(2015)

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第5期35卷 567-579页

作者： Jia LIANG Liguang WU Guojun GU Pacific Typhoon Research Center Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing 210044 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20740 USA

Typhoon Chan-Hom （2015） underwent a weakening in the tropical western North Pacific （WNP） when it interacted with a monsoon gyre, but all operational forecasts failed to predict this intensity change. A recent observational study indicated that it resulted from its interaction with a monsoon gyre on the 15-30-day timescale. In this study, the results of two numerical experiments are presented to investigate the influence of the monsoon gyre on the intensity changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom （2015）. The control experiment captures the main observed features of the weakening process of Chan-Hom （2015） during a sharp northward turn in the Philippine Sea, including the enlargement of the eye size, the development of strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre, and the corresponding strong outer inflow. The sensitivity experiment suggests that intensity changes of Chan-Hom （2015） were mainly associated with its interaction with the monsoon gyre. When Chan-Horn （2015） initially moved westward in the eastern part of the monsoon gyre, the monsoon gyre enhanced the inertial stability for the intensification of the typhoon. With its coalescence with the monsoon gyre, the development of the strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre prevented moisture and mass entering the inner core of Chan-Hom （2015）, resulting in the collapse of the eyewall. Thus, the weakening happened in the deep tropical WNP region. The numerical simulations confirm the important effects of the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres on tropical cyclone intensity.

关键词： monsoon gyre intensity change numerical simulation

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Influence of mesoscale topography on vortex intensity

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Progress in Natural Science:Materials International 2008年第1期18卷 71-78页

作者： Zhexian Luo*,Yun Gao Remote Sensing College,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Najing 210044,China Remote Sensing College Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Najing 210044 China

The effect of mesoscale topography on multi-vortex self-organization is investigated numerically in this paper using a barotropic prim- itive equation model with topographic *** the initial field there are one DeMaria major vortex with the maximum wind radius rm of 80 km at the center of the computational domain,and four meso-b vortices in the vicinity of rm to the east of the major vortex center. When there is no topography present,the initial vortices self-organize into a quasi-final state flow pattern,i.e.a quasi-axisymmetric vor- tex whose intensity is close to that of the initial major ***,when a mesoscale topography is incorporated,the spatial scale of the quasi-final state vortex reduces,and the relative vorticity at the center of the vortex and the local maximum wind speed remarkably *** possible mechanism for the enhancement of the quasi-final state vortex might be that the negative relative vorticity lump, generated above the mesoscale topography because of the constraint of absolute vorticity conservation,squeezes the center of positive vorticity towards the mountain slope area,and thus reduces the spatial range of the major ***,because the total kinetic energy is basically conservative,the squeezing directly leads to the concentration of the energy in a smaller area,*** strengthening of the vortex.

关键词： Mesoscale topography Vortex Self-organization intensity change

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Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone intensity Forecasts from Five Global Ensemble Prediction Systems During 2015-2019

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2021年第3期27卷 218-231页

作者： XIN Jia-jie YU Hui CHEN Pei-yan Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081 China Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclones of China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 200030 China

This study presented an evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity forecasts from five global ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) during 2015-2019 in the western North Pacific region. Notable error features include the underestimation of the TC intensity by ensemble mean forecast and the under-dispersion of the probability *** root mean square errors(brier scores) of the ensemble mean(probability forecasts) generally decrease consecutively at long lead times during the five years, but fluctuate between certain values at short lead *** forecast skill appeared in the most recent two years(2018-2019) at 120 h or later as compared with the climatology forecasts. However, there is no obvious improvement for the intensity change forecasts during the 5-year period, with abrupt intensity change remaining a big challenge. The probability forecasts show no skill for strong TCs at all the lead times. Among the five EPSs, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best for the intensity forecast, while NCEPGEFS ranks the best for the intensity change forecast, according to the evaluation of ensemble mean and *** for the other probability forecast evaluation, ECMWF-EPS ranks the best at lead times shorter than 72 h, while NCEP-GEFS ranks the best later on.

关键词： tropical cyclone intensity ensemble forecast evaluation intensity change

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VARIATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH intensity IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITIES

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2011年第3期17卷 209-220页

作者：高建芸余锦华张秀芝张容焱 Meteorological Research Institute of Fujian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education NUIST National Climate Center of China CMA

Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was *** following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with *** preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon *** anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and *** monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.

关键词： South China Sea-western North Pacific monsoon troughs intensity change tropical cyclones

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A NUMERICAL STUDY ON VORTICITY PROPAGATION AND changeS IN TYPHOON intensity

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2003年第2期17卷 129-145页

作者：余锦华徐祥德陈联寿罗哲贤 Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

An f-plane quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model of high resolution is designed in this paper in order to investigate the characters of vorticity propagation and the effect of nonlinearity on the propagation within a typhoon circulation,wherein two mesoscale vortices coexist at different radial *** results of 10 sets of experiments suggest that in comparison with only one vortex,the intensity of the inward propagations of vorticity strengthens distinctly,vorticity detains in the inner region of typhoon circulation for a longer time,and the local maximum wind speed in the inner region increases *** introduction of nonlinear advection into the model weakens the intensity of both inward and outward propagations of vorticity,but makes the inward propagation up to a position closer to the center of typhoon.

关键词： typhoon vortex Rossby wave (VRW) nonlinearity intensity change

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changeS OF TYPHOON intensity AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCING FACTORS IN AN f-PLANE BAROTROPIC QUASIGEOSTROPHIC MODEL

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2004年第1期18卷 73-86页

作者：罗哲贤 Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

By using an f-plane barotropic quasigeostrophic model with the grid-spacing being 5 km,21 experiments whose integration time is 36 h are performed in this paper in order to investigate interactions between a typhoon vortex and its adjacent mesoscale *** show that whether the interaction leads to the intensification of the typhoon vortex depends on two kinds of factors:one is the value of the maximum wind speed of the typhoon vortex and the intensity of the shearing of circular basic flow:and the other is the condition of mesoscale vortices in the shearing basic flow,such as the spatial distribution,scale,intensity and structure of mesoscale vortices. There is the nonlinear relation between typhoon intensity and the scale and intensity of initial mesoscale vortices.

关键词： typhoon vortex intensity change nonlinear interaction

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