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Quantification of restricting factors of agricultural development in Min County of Gansu, China

Journal of Mountain Science 2020年第1期17卷 147-155页

作者： CHEN Yong ZHOU Li-hua Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Institutes of Science and Development Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China

Agricultural development in povertystricken areas is a major problem affecting agricultural modernization in China. This study discusses the restrictive factors affecting agricultural development in impoverished areas in China. A typical impoverished mountainous area, Min County,was selected for a case study. A regression analysis on the factors and characteristics of agricultural development in Min County between 1982 and 2017 was performed in this study. Taking agricultural output as the dependent variable, we selected nine main inputs of agricultural production in impoverished mountainous areas as the independent variables. Ridge regression analysis was carried out by testing for unit root and co-integration to verify the equilibrium relationship of the data. The results showed that the real Gross domestic product(GDP)per capita, the non-grain area ratio, the proportion of government expenditure on agriculture support to total expenditure, and the amount of chemical fertilizer applied in unit cultivated land area were the four most significant factors. The proportion of government expenditure on agriculture support to total expenditure was a negative influence, whereas the other three significant factors had a positive influence on agricultural output. This study highlights about the most significant factors affecting the agricultural development of impoverished mountainous regions in China.

关键词： impoverished mountainous region Agricultural development Min County Ridge regression

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