检索结果-南通市图书馆

impacts and risks of“realistic”global warming projections for the 21st century

Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第2期15卷 392-416页

作者： Nicola Scafetta Department of Earth Sciences Environment and GeoresourcesUniversity of Naples Federico IIComplesso Universitario di Monte S.AngeloVia Vicinale Cupa Cintia2180126 NaplesNAItaly

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and *** to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from 1.3℃to 8.0℃by 2100,depending on the global climate model(GCM)and the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenario used for the *** climate-change hazards are estimated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises,respectively,more than 2.0℃and 3.0℃above pre-industrial *** studies,however,showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run“too hot”because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing,and that the high/extreme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely,***,the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk *** paper examines the impacts and risks of“realistic”climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and *** is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario(which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency)and empirically optimized climate *** to recent research,the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012–2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)(1.5℃

关键词： Climate change Climate models Shared socioeconomic pathways 21st-century climate projections impacts and risks assessment

来源：

维普期刊数据库评论

在线全文

维普期刊数据库

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：