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Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics:Optimal control analysis

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2018年第1期3卷 301-321页

作者： Jemal Mohammed-Awel Folashade Agusto Ronald E.Mickens Abba B.Gumel Department of Mathematics Valdosta State UniversityValdostaGA 31698USA Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of KansasLawrenceKS USA Department of Physics Clark Atlanta UniversityAtlantaGA 30314USA School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Arizona State UniversityTempeAZ85287USA

The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets(itns)and indoor residual spraying(IRS),over the last two decades,has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence ***,the effectiveness of these interventions is now being threatened by numerous factors,such as resistance to insecticide in the mosquito vector and their preference to feed and rest outdoors or early in the evening(when humans are not protected by the bednets).This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of mosquito insecticide resistance on malaria transmission dynamics.A notable feature of the model is that it stratifies the mosquito population in terms of type(wild or resistant to insecticides)and feeding preference(indoor or outdoor).The model is rigorously analysed to gain insight into the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the various disease-free equilibria of the model namely the trivial diseasefree equilibrium,the non-trivial resistant-only boundary disease-free equilibrium and a non-trivial disease-free equlibrium where both the wild and resistant mosquito geneotypes co-exist).Simulations of the model,using data relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Ethiopia(a malaria-endemic nation),show that the use of optimal itns alone,or in combination with optimal IRS,is more effective than the singular implementation of an optimal IRS-only ***,when the effect of the fitness cost of insecticide resistance with respect to fecundity(i.e.,assuming a decrease in the baseline birth rate of new resistant-type adult female mosquitoes)is accounted for,numerical simulations of the model show that the combined optimal itns-IRS strategy could lead to the effective control of the disease,and insecticide resistance effectively managed during the first 8 years of the 15-year implementation period of the insecticides-based anti-malaria control measures in the community.

关键词： Malaria Insecticide resistance itns IRS Equilibria

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Evaluating recurrent episodes of malaria incidence in Timika,Indonesia,through a Markovian multiple-state model

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第3期7卷 261-276页

作者： Novyan Lusiyana Atina Ahdika Department of Parasitology Faculty of MedicineUniversitas Islam IndonesiaJalan Kaliurang Km 14.5 SlemanYogyakarta55584Indonesia Department of Statistics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural ScienceUniversitas Islam IndonesiaJalan Kaliurang Km 14.5 SlemanYogyakarta55584Indonesia

Background:The high prevalence of malaria in endemic areas generally stems from recurrence events,characterized by the appearance of malaria symptoms at the time of examination;nearly every resident is at risk of experiencing such a *** verified presence of Plasmodium sp is referred to as the Confirmed state,while the condition without confirmed *** is called the Undetected Parasitaemia *** malaria treatment,a person can be in Aparasitaemic state or return to an Undetected Parasitaemia or Confirmed state due to non-adherence in complying with malaria *** this study,we evaluate the characteristics of malaria recurrence in Timika,Indonesia,using the Markovian multiple-state *** addition,we also simulate the probability of malaria recurrence after the implementation of several control strategies,including prevention strategies using insecticide-treated nets(itns)and indoor residual spraying(IRS).Objective:This study aims to identify the transition probabilities of malaria recurrence with and without control ***:We use data from the medical records of malaria patients from the Naena Muktipura sub-health center in Timika,Papua,Indonesia,from March 2020 to March *** data were grouped into two age categories:those under or over 24 *** incidence of malaria in this area was modeled using a Markovian multiple-state model,dividing the incidence data based on the character of the patient's condition(Undetected Parasitaemia,Confirmed,or Aparasitaemic states)in order to obtain the patient's transition probabilities in each ***,we simulate the recurrence probability given specific control ***:There were 964 visits to the sub-health center at Naena Muktipura in which symptoms of malaria were ***,the number of the malaria incidences in the groups under and over age 24 were 456 and 508,*** modeling results indicate that the probability of recurrence in the ove

关键词： itns IRS Malaria Markovian multiple-state model Recurrent episodes

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Modeling Insecticide Resistance in Endemic Regions of Kenya

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Applied Mathematics 2016年第6期7卷 542-555页

作者： Josephine Wairimu Marilyn Ronoh School of Mathematics University of Nairobi Nairobi Kenya

In this study, we develop an SIS model for two types of mosquitoes, a traditional one and one that is resistant to IRS and itns. The resistant mosquito develops behavioral adaptation to control measures put in place to reduce their biting rate. They also bite early before dusk and later after dark when people are outside the houses and nets. We determine the effect of the two types of mosquitoes on malaria transmission in Kenya. The basic reproduction number R 0 is established as a sharp threshold that determines whether the disease dies out or persists in the population. Precisely, if R 0 ≤ 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease always dies out and if R 0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is globally stable and the disease persists. The contribution of the two types of mosquitoes to the basic reproduction number and to the level of the endemic equilibrium is analyzed.

关键词： Malaria Insecticide Resistance itns IRS Reproduction Number

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两类传染病模型的动力学行为研究

两类传染病模型的动力学行为研究

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作者：熊永平兰州大学

学位级别：硕士

传染病是由各种病原体引起的可以在相同或不同种群之间相互传播的疾病。本文借助单调动力系统、概周期微分方程、非线性泛函分析等工具,运用传染病相关理论,建立了两类传染病的动力学模型,通过定义疾病的基本再生数(?),研究了相关阈值... 详细信息

传染病是由各种病原体引起的可以在相同或不同种群之间相互传播的疾病。本文借助单调动力系统、概周期微分方程、非线性泛函分析等工具,运用传染病相关理论,建立了两类传染病的动力学模型,通过定义疾病的基本再生数(?),研究了相关阈值动力学行为,旨在为疾病的预防与控制提供理论依据和防控策略。本文首先研究概周期环境下的一类带有药浸蚊帐(itns)与时间依赖时滞的疟疾模型。通过定义蚊子和疾病的基本再生数(?)和(?),研究结果表明当(?)1时蚊子会一致持久。进一步,当(?)>1并且(?)1时,疾病会一致持久。最后通过数值模拟验证了阈值结果并且表明提高itns的覆盖率可以大大降低感染疟疾的风险。其次基于新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)的传播机理,提出了一类带有疫苗接种和非药物干预(NPIs)的新冠模型。借助基本再生数(?)的理论,结果表明当(?)1时,疾病一致持久。在数值模拟过程中,以印度为例,发现模拟曲线能够很好地贴合实际数据。由此预测了新冠病毒在印度的传播趋势。此外,数值结果表明提高NPIs的强度将大大减少确诊病例的数量。特别是在疫苗有效率低于76.9%时,即使所有人都接种了疫苗,要实现群体免疫,NPIs也是必不可少的。接下来通过模拟基本再生数(?)与疫苗接种率和有效率之间的关系,划定了群体免疫区域。最后两个斑块的情况以印度与中国为例,研究了两国开放通航的条件并给出了最优的迁移策略。

关键词：概周期函数基本再生数疟疾模型新冠模型 itns NPIs

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