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Agricultural irrigation requirements under future climate scenarios in China

Journal of Arid Land 2015年第2期7卷 224-237页

作者： Xiu Fang ZHU An Zhou ZHAO Yi Zhan LI Xian Feng LIU State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University College of Resources Science and Technology Beijing Normal University

Projecting future water demand, especially in terms of agricultural irrigation demand, as well as identifying high-risk areas and establishing appropriate water demand management has become increasingly important in China. Climate scenarios provide opportunities to predict future irrigation requirements(IRs). We examined changes in IRs and agricultural drought in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in China using eight global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. In this research, Northeast China, the North China Plain and the Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley area in southeastern Tibet were estimated to receive more precipitation in the future, whereas Southeast and Northwest China, especially the Junggar and Tarim basins in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, will receive less precipitation. IRs will undergo a significant increase in summer(June–August), especially in July, whereas the smallest increase was predicted to occur in autumn(September–November). Middle rice was identified as the greatest contributor to the increase in total IRs. The areas predicted to experience significant increases in IRs include Northwest China(the Tarim and Junggar basins in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the Hexi Corridor in Gansu province and the Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi province), Southeast China(especially Fujian province), and Southwest China(Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley area in Tibet and the Sichuan Basin).

关键词： agricultural drought water demand agricultural irrigation requirement climate change ipcc scenarios

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Hydrological Processes and Climate Change in Hydrographic Regions of Brazil

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2016年第12期8卷 1103-1127页

作者： Alfredo Ribeiro Neto Adriano Rolim da Paz José Antonio Marengo Sin Chan Chou Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Federal University of Pernambuco Recife Brazil Civil and Environmental Engineering Department Federal University of Paraíba Joao Pessoa Brazil National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters S&#227o José dos Campos Brazil Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies National Institute for Space Research Cachoeira Paulista Brazil

The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of ipcc AR5 climate change scenarios on water resources and hydrological processes across the entire Brazilian territory. Hydrological simulations are carried out in total drainage area of about 11,535,645 km2 and average stream flow of about 272,460 m3/s. The study area consists of different climates and land covers such as the Amazon Forest, Northeast Semiarid, Brazilian Savannah, Pantanal wetlands and temperate climate in the South. The atmospheric forcing to drive the large-scale hydrological model MGB-IPH is derived from the downscaling of two global climate models, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, by the Eta Regional Climate Model, at 20 km resolution. The Eta model provided the downscaling of the baseline (1961-1990) and three time-slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099). These projections adopted two emission scenarios, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The change in the average and extremes of precipitation, evapotranspiration, rates of river discharge and soil moisture were assessed. The simulations showed the response of the hydrographic regions due to change of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the scenarios. Water availability decreases in almost the entire study area (exception for the South) and the major basins for hydroelectric power generation are affected. The Northwest, Amazon and a small area along the Northeast Atlantic coast exhibited intensification of the extremes discharges, where the anomaly is positive for high-flow (Q10) and negative for low-flow (Q95). The results highlight the most climatic sensitive regions in Brazil in terms of hydrological variables and water resources.

关键词： Hydrological Modelling ipcc scenarios Climate Change Impacts

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