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Projected hydrologic regime changes in the Poyang Lake Basin due to climate change

Frontiers of Earth Science 2017年第1期11卷 95-113页

作者： Le Wang Shenglian Guo Xingjun Hong Dedi Liu Lihua Xiong State key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, and its surrounding sub-basins have suffered frequent floods and droughts in recent decades. To better understand and quantitatively assess hydrological impacts of climate change in the region, this study adopted the Statistical Downscaling Model （SDSM） to downseale the outputs of a Global Climate Model （GCM） under three scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） as recommended by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5） during future periods （2010-2099） in the Poyang Lake Basin. A semi-distributed two-parameter monthly water balance model was also used to simulate and predict projected changes of runoff in the Ganjiang sub-basin. Results indicate that： 1） SDSM can simulate monthly mean precipitation reasonably well, while a bias correction procedure should be applied to downscaled extreme precipitation indices （EPI） before being employed to simulate future precipitation; 2） for annual mean precipitation, a mixed pattern of positive or negative changes are detected in the entire basin, with a slightly higher or lower trend in the 2020s and 2050s, with a consistent increase in the 2080s; 3） all six EPI show a general increase under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, while a mixed pattern of positive and negative changes is detected for most indices under the RCP2.6 scenario; and 4） the future runoff in the Ganjiang sub-basin shows an overall decreasing trend for all periods but the 2080s under the RCP8.5 scenario when runoff is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than evaporation.

关键词： climate change hydrological regimes statistical downscaling extreme precipitation indices Poyang Lake Basin

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Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems:Prioritizing resilient decision-making for a riskier world

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2023年第5期15卷 219-229页

作者： XinWei Yin Wei Liu Meng Zhu JuTao Zhang Qi Feng HaiYang Xi LinShan Yang Tuo Han WenJu Cheng YingQing Su BaiTing Zhang YuanYuan Xue ZeXia Chen LingGe Wang Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhouGansu 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China College of Geography and Environment Science Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhouGansu 730070China

Water-salt balance is critical for the stable coexistence of salt-affected and groundwater-fed oasis-desert ecosystems. Yet, a comprehensive investigation of how soil salinization and groundwater degradation threaten the coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems is still scarce, especially under the compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes. Here, we assessed the impacts of irrigated agriculture on hydrological regimes in oasisdesert systems, investigated the spatio-temporal variations of soil salinization in irrigated cropland, and evaluated the implications of the interplays of soil salinization and groundwater degradation on the coexistence of oasis-desert ecosystems in northwestern China, based on meaningful modelling approaches and comprehensive measurements over 1995–2020. The results showed that the irrigation return flow coefficient decreased sharply from 0.21 ± 0.09 in the traditional irrigation period to 0.09 ± 0.01 in the water-saving irrigation period. The continuous drop in groundwater tables and significant degradation of groundwater quality are occurring throughout this watershed. The eco-environmental flows are reaching to their limit with watershed closures(i.e.,the drainage from the oasis region into the desert region is being weakened or even eliminated), although these progressions were largely hidden by regional precipitation and streamflow variability. The process of salt migration and accumulation across different landscapes in oasis-desert system is being reshaped, and soil salinization in water-saving agricultural irrigated lands is accelerating with a regional average annual growth rate of18%. The vegetation in this watershed is degrading, and anthropogenic disturbance accelerates this trend. Our results highlight that environmental stress adaptation strategies must account for resilience maintenance to avoid accelerating catastrophic transitions in oasis-desert ecosystems. Determining the optimal oasis scales and formulatin

关键词： Oasis-desert ecosystems hydrological regimes Soil salinization Vegetation dynamics Resilient decision-making

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