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Handling Uncertainty in human Cognitive reliability Method for Safety Assessment Based on DSET

Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2022年第7期132卷 201-214页

作者： Yujun Su Xianghao Gao Hong Qian Xiaoyan Su State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment Shenzhen518172China School of Automation Engineering Shanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai200090China

human reliability analysis(HRA)is an important part in safety assessment of a large complex *** Cognitive reliability(HCR)model is a method of evaluating the probability that operators fail to complete during diagnostic decision making within a limited time,which is widely used in *** the application of this method,cognitive patterns of humans are required to be considered and classified,and this process often relies on the evaluation opinions of experts which is highly subjective and *** to effectively express and process this uncertain and subjective information plays a critical role in improving the accuracy and applicability of *** this paper,a new model was proposed to deal with the uncertain information which exists in the processes of cognitive pattern classification in ***,an evaluation panel was constructed based on expert opinions and processing including setting corresponding anchor points and qualitative indicators of different cognitive patterns,and mapping them to fuzzy numbers and unit ***,based on the evaluation panel,different analysts judge the cognitive pattern types of actual specific events and provide the level of confidence he or she has in the ***,the evaluation opinions of multiple analysts were expressed and fused based on the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory(DSET),and the fused results were applied to the HCR model to obtain the human Error Probability(HEP).A case study was used to demonstrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关键词： Safety assessment human reliability analysis human cognitive reliability human error probability DempsterShafer evidence theory

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An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2024年第3期138卷 2597-2617页

作者： Zhihui Xu Shuwen Shang Yuntong Pu Xiaoyan Su Hong Qian Xiaolei Pan State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment Shenzhen518172China School of Automation Engineering Shanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai200090China School of Safety and Management Engineering Hunan Institute of TechnologyHengyang421002China

Cognitive reliability and Error analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and ***’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is *** the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability *** address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific *** address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the *** detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.

关键词： human reliability analysis CREAM uncertainty modeling dependence Dempster-Shafer evidence theory DEMATEL

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Assessment of Dependent Performance Shaping Factors in SPAR-H Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences 2024年第2期138卷 1813-1826页

作者： Xiaoyan Su Shuwen Shang Zhihui Xu Hong Qian Xiaolei Pan School of Automation Engineering Shanghai University of Electric PowerShanghai 200090China State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Power Safety Monitoring Technology and Equipment Shenzhen518172China

With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the *** standardized Plant analysis of Risk-human reliability analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex ***,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual *** address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation ***,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation ***,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence ***,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关键词： reliability evaluation human reliability analysis SPAR-H performance shaping factors dependence pearson correlation analysis

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Risk identification and safety assessment of human-computer interaction in integrated avionics based on STAMP

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2024年第3期35卷 689-706页

作者： ZHAO Changxiao LI Hao ZHANG Wei DAI Jun DONG Lei School of Safety Science and Engineering Civil Aviation University of ChinaTianjin 300300China Shenzhen Dajiang Innovation Technology Co. Ltd.Shenzhen 518057China Key Laboratory of Civil Aircraft Airworthiness Technology Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaTianjin 300300China

To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is *** can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools *** common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried *** the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are *** the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are *** results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its *** case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.

关键词： avionics human-computer interaction(HCI) safety assessment system-theoretic accident model and process human reliability analysis

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