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Retracing Realistic Disaster Scenarios from Archival Sources:A Key Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第5期12卷 635-648页

作者： Bashir Ahmad Akhtar Alam M.Sultan Bhat Khurshid Ahmad Bhat Jeelani Inaam ul Haq Hakim Farooq Ahmad Junaid Qadir Department of Geology Nawakadal SchoolSrinagar 190002India Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction University College LondonWCIE 6BTUK Department of Geography and Regional Development University of KashmirSrinagar 190006India Department of Statistics Chanapora SchoolSrinagar 190015India Department of Geology Aligarh Muslim UniversityAligarh 202002India

Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of *** profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying degree of severity that spread through the socioeconomic and political systems,influenced adaptation,and increased the consequences of the resulting *** root cause of these disasters was embedded in the social,natural,and political economic systems of their time,where vulnerabilities overlapped and interacted periodically with successive colonial regimes and acted as tipping *** combined effect of successive colonial regimes,inept administration,rigid political economy,and natural hazards made the situation go from bad to worse and reduced Kashmir to the depths of distress and *** the arc of the nineteenth century,a series of disasters led the Kashmiri population to learn how to live with disasters and minimize risk,bringing about the evolution of social and environmental *** the natural hazard vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley through archival narratives can help in scenario building to translate findings into formats that reduce related risk now as it did *** resulting information can be useful for regional design,planning,and policy responses to promote disaster risk reduction.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction historical disasters Kashmir Nineteenth-century disasters Socioeconomic vulnerability

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