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Evaluation of Tianji and ECMWF high-resolution precipitation forecasts for extreme rainfall event in Henan in July 2021

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Water Science and Engineering 2023年第2期16卷 122-131页

作者： Wen-tao Li Jia-peng Zhang Ruo-chen Sun Qingyun Duan State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of Hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China CMA-HHU Joint Laboratory for Hydrometeorological Studies Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range weather forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.

关键词： Extreme precipitation high-resolution weather forecast Evaluation Flood forecasting Spatial forecast verification

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