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Changes in hydrological regime in high Arctic non-glaciated catchment in 1979-2020 using a multimodel approach

Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第4期13卷 517-530页

作者： Marzena OSUCH Tomasz WAWRZYNIAK Marta MAJERSKA Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of SciencesWarsaw 01-452Poland

Assessing hydrological consequences of climate change at the catchment scale is recently among key problems in *** study focuses on the estimation of changes in the hydrological regime in the Fuglebekken catchment in SW Spitsbergen(Svalbard).For this purpose,50 rainfll-runoff models were calibrated using available hydrometeorological *** models were validated based on archival flow and SWE observations,and proxy data from time-lapse *** models(FLEX-IS,GSM-SOCONT,PRMS,HBV,Nordic HBV,and GR4J)with the best performance were applied to reconstruct the past hydrological conditions and analyse the trends in flow regime in the period *** significant changes at 0.05 level in the flow regime indicators were detected,including the number of days with the active flow during the calendar year(10.8 d per decade),during the mid-May-November period(9.8 d per decade),the date of the first day with the flow(-4.7 d per decade),and the last day with the flow during mid-May-November(8.4 d per decade).A statistically significant increase in runoff was estimated for two periods from mid-May to the end of June and the second part of August till *** changes in the first period result from increases in air temperature and earlier snowmelt-driven *** estimated runoff increase in the second period corresponds to large increases in *** increase in air temperature,earlier disappearance of snow,and decrease in precipitation in July and the first part of August result in runoff *** presented results show that the Fuglebekken‘catchment's hydrological regime has already *** magnitude of the changes is larger compared to catchments located in lower latitudes.

关键词： Hydrological regime Climate change Svalbard high aretic catchment hydrology Multimodel approach

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