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The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy:A modelling study

Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第2期8卷 318-340页

作者： Nico Stollenwerk Carlo Delfin S.Estadilla Javier Mar Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck Oliver Ibarrondo Ruben Blasco-Aguado Maíra Aguiar BCAM-Basque Center for Applied Mathematics BilbaoBasque CountrySpain Dipartimento di Matematica Universita degli Studi di TrentoPovoTrentoItaly Osakidetza Basque Health Service GuipúzcoaBasque CountrySpain Biodonostia Health Research Institute GuipúzcoaBasque CountrySpain Public Health Basque Health DepartmentBilbaoBasque CountrySpain Ikerbasque Basque Foundation for ScienceBilbaoBasque CountrySpain Preventive Medicine and Public Health Department University of the Basque CountryLeioaBasque CountrySpain

Vaccines have measurable efficacy obtained first from vaccine ***,vaccine efficacy(VE)is not a static measure and long-term population studies are needed to evaluate its performance and ***-19 vaccines have been developed in record time and the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease with higher VE after the full immunization *** assess the impact of the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout programmes,we used an extended Susceptible-Hospitalized-Asymptomatic/mild-Recovered(SHAR)*** models were proposed to evaluate different vaccine types:vaccine type 1 which protects against severe disease only but fails to block disease transmission,and vaccine type 2 which protects against both severe disease and *** was assumed as reported by the vaccine trials incorporating the difference in efficacy between one and two doses of vaccine *** described the performance of the vaccine in reducing hospitalizations during a momentary scenario in the Basque Country,*** a population in a mixed vaccination setting,our results have shown that reductions in hospitalized COVID-19 cases were observed five months after the vaccination rollout started,from May to June *** in June,a good agreement between modelling simulation and empirical data was well pronounced.

关键词： COVID-19 Vaccine efficacy Bayesian approach herd immunity

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Global trends in COVID-19

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Infectious Medicine 2022年第1期1卷 31-39页

作者： Chuan-Min Zhou Xiang-Rong Qin Li-Na Yan Yuan Jiang Xue-Jie Yu Department of Infectious Diseases Zhongnan HospitalWuhan UniversityWuhan430071Hubei ProvinceChina State Key Laboratory of Virology School of Health SciencesWuhan UniversityWuhan430071Hubei ProvinceChina Department of Clinical Laboratory the Second Hospital of Shandong UniversityJinan250033Shandong ProvinceChina

The pandemic COVID-19 is certainly one of the most severe infectious diseases in human *** the last 2 years,the COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 418.6 million confirmed cases and 5.8 million deaths *** people make up the majority of all infected COVID-19 cases,but the mortality rate is relatively lower compared to older age ***,about 55.04%individuals have been fully vaccinated rapidly approaching to herd immunity *** challenge is that new SARS-CoV-2 variants with potential to evade immunity from natural infection or vaccine continue to *** infections have occurred in both SARS-CoV-2 naturally infected and vaccinated individuals,but breakthrough infections tended to exhibit mild or asymptomatic symptoms and lower mortality ***,immunity from natural infection or vaccination can reduce SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity,but neither can completely prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection/***,the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 continue to *** 7-day average cumulative case fatality of COVID-19 has decreased from 12.3%on the February 25,2020,to 0.27%on January 09,2022,which could be related to a decreased SARS-CoV-2 variant virulence,vaccine immunization,and/or better treatment of *** conclusion,elimination of SARS-CoV-2 in the world could be impossible or at least an arduous task with a long way to *** best strategy to prevent COVID-19 pandemic is to expand inoculation rate of effective *** the population reaches herd immunity,the mortality rate of COVID-19 may continue to decrease,and COVID-19 could eventually become another common cold.

关键词： COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity Case fatality rate Breakthrough infection Delta variant Omicron variant Vaccine

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The impact of age structure and vaccine prioritization on COVID-19 in West Africa

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第4期7卷 709-727页

作者： Hemaho B.Taboe Michael Asare-Baah Afsana Yesmin Calistus N.Ngonghala Department of Mathematics University of FloridaGainesvilleFL32611USA Laboratoire de Biomathematiques et d’Estimations Forestieres University of Abomey-CalaviCotonouBenin Department of Epidemiology University of Florida2004 Mowry RoadGainesvilleFL32610USA Emerging Pathogens Institute University of FloridaGainesvilleFL32610USA

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has been a major global health challenge since its emergence in *** to early predictions that sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)would bear a disproportionate share of the burden of COVID-19 due to the region's vulnerability to other infectious diseases,weak healthcare systems,and socioeconomic conditions,the pandemic's effects in SSA have been very mild in comparison to other ***,the number of cases,hospitalizations,and disease-induced deaths in SSA remain low,despite the loose implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs)and the low availability and administration of *** explanations for this low burden include epidemiological disparities,under-reporting(due to limited testing),climatic factors,population structure,and government policy *** this study,we formulate a model framework consisting of a basic model(in which only susceptible individuals are vaccinated),a vaccine-structured model,and a hybrid vaccine-age-structured model to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in West Africa(WA).The framework is trained with a portion of the confirmed daily COVID-19 case data for 16 West African countries,validated with the remaining portion of the data,and used to(i)assess the effect of age structure on the incidence of COVID-19 in WA,(ii)evaluate the impact of vaccination and vaccine prioritization based on age brackets on the burden of COVID-19 in the sub-region,and(iii)explore plausible reasons for the low burden of COVID-19 in WA compared to other parts of the *** of the model parameters and global sensitivity analysis show that asymptomatic youths are the primary drivers of the pandemic in ***,the basic and control reproduction numbers of the hybrid vaccine-age-structured model are smaller than those of the other two models indicating that the disease burden is overestimated in the models which do not account for *** result is confirmed through the vaccine-d

关键词： Vaccine prioritization SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant AVAT Reproduction number herd immunity

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COVID-19 rhapsody:Rage towards advanced diagnostics and therapeutic strategy

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Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2021年第5期11卷 529-540页

作者： Koel Sinha Sutapa Som Chaudhury Pramita Sharma Bhuban Ruidas Centre for Healthcare Science and Technology Indian Institute of Engineering Science TechnologyShibpurHowrah711103India Department of Zoology Hooghly Mohsin College Affiliated to University of BurdwanHooghly712101India

The deadly global outbreak of coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)has forged an unrivaled threat to human *** its profuse impact,initial risk management and therapies are needed,as well as rapid detection strategies alongside treatments with existing drugs or traditional treatments to provide better clinical support for critical *** detection techniques have been considered but do not sufficiently meet the current challenges of effective COVID-19 ***,several modern techniques including point-of-care diagnosis with a biosensor,clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats(CRISPR)-associated proteins that function as nuclease(Cas)technology,next-generation sequencing,serological,digital,and imaging approaches have delivered improved and noteworthy success compared to that using traditional *** drug treatment,plasma therapy,and vaccine development are also ***,alternative medicines including Ayurveda,herbal drugs,homeopathy,and Unani have also been enlisted as prominent treatment strategies for developing herd immunity and physical defenses against *** considered,this review can help develop rapid and simplified diagnostic strategies,as well as advanced evidencebased modern therapeutic approaches that will aid in combating the global pandemic.

关键词： COVID-19 Ayurveda herd immunity Homeopathy

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Will vaccine-derived protective immunity curtail COVID-19 variants in the US?

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2021年第1期6卷 1110-1134页

作者： Marina Mancuso Steffen E.Eikenberry Abba B.Gumel Arizona State University School of Mathematical and Statistical SciencesTempeAZ85287USA Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of PretoriaPretoria0002South Africa

Multiple effective vaccines are currently being deployed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic,and are viewed as the major factor in marked reductions of disease burden in regions with moderate to high vaccination *** effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination programs is,however,significantly threatened by the emergence of new SARS-COV-2 variants that,in addition to being more transmissible than the wild-type(original)strain,may at least partially evade existing vaccines.A two-strain(one wildtype,one variant)and two-group(vaccinated or otherwise)mechanistic mathematical model is designed and used to assess the impact of the vaccine-induced cross-protective efficacy on the spread the COVID-19 pandemic in the United *** analysis of the model shows that,in the absence of any co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant,the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold needed to eliminate the wild-type strain can be achieved if 59%of the US population is fully-vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna *** threshold increases to 76%if the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Alpha variant(a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is 56%more transmissible than the wild-type strain).If the wild-type strain is co-circulating with the Delta variant(which is estimated to be 100%more transmissible than the wild-type strain),up to 82%of the US population needs to be vaccinated with either of the aforementioned vaccines to achieve the vaccine-derived herd *** sensitivity analysis of the model reveal the following four parameters as the most influential in driving the value of the reproduction number of the variant strain(hence,COVID-19 dynamics)in the US:(a)the infectiousness of the co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant,(b)the proportion of individuals fully vaccinated(using Pfizer or Moderna vaccine)against the wild-type strain,(c)the cross-protective efficacy the vaccines offer against the variant strain and(d)the modification parameter accounting for the reduced infectio

关键词： COVID-19 Vaccine Wild-type Variant Reproduction number herd immunity

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An evaluation of mathematical models for the outbreak of COVID-19

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Precision Clinical Medicine 2020年第2期3卷 85-93页

作者： Ning Wang Yuting Fu Hu Zhang Huipeng Shi Mathematical Institute University of OxfordRadcliffe Observatory QuarterWoodstock RoadOxford OX26GGUK Department of Gastroenterology&Center for Inflammatory Bowel Disease West China HospitalSichuan UniversityChengdu 610041China Department of Orthopaedics Shanghai 6th People’s HospitalShanghai Jiaotong UniversityShanghai 201306China

Mathematical modelling performs a vital part in estimating and controlling the recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).In this epidemic,most countries impose severe intervention measures to contain the spread of *** policymakers are forced to make difficult decisions to leverage between health and economic *** and when tomake clinical and public health decisions in an epidemic situation is a challenging *** most appropriate solution is based on scientific evidence,which is mainly dependent on data and *** one of the most critical problems during this crisis is whether we can develop reliable epidemiological models to forecast the evolution of the virus and estimate the effectiveness of various intervention measures and their impacts on the *** are numerous types of mathematical model for epidemiological *** this paper,we present some critical reviews on mathematical models for the outbreak of *** elementary models are presented as an initial formulation for an *** give some basic concepts,notations,and foundation for epidemiological *** related works are also introduced and evaluated by considering epidemiological features such as disease tendency,latent effects,susceptibility,basic reproduction numbers,asymptomatic infections,herd immunity,and impact of the interventions.

关键词： COVID-19 2019-nCoV SARS-CoV-2 novel coronavirus epidemiological modelling SIR model SEIR model case fatality ratio basic reproduction numbers asymptomatic infections herd immunity intervention measures

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Reasons of Vaccine Hesitancy among Pakistanis with Available COVID-19 Vaccine: The Next Challenge in the Fight against COVID-19

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Natural Science 2021年第6期13卷 211-217页

作者： Wajiha Rizwan Muhammad Nasir Rana Mulazim Hussain Bukhari Asma Mushtaq Masood Sadiq The Children Hospital/Institute of Child Health Lahore Pakistan Azad Jammu Kashmir Medical College Muzaffarabad Pakistan

The government of Pakistan started vaccination campaign for the frontline healthcare pro-viders, as they are more likely to be exposed to COVID-19 patients. In the next step, it ex-tended the free vaccination campaign to include people above 60 and 50 years of age re-spectively. The drive is now open to all citizens >18 years of age. There is a significant re-luctance to get vaccinated even though the government has provided it free of cost. The project uses self-reporting method to assess reasons of vaccine hesitancy among Pakistanis and possible solutions to overcome this problem. Concern for serious side effects was the most common issue 154 (48.42%) reported among all groups of people, including the healthcare workers. The major sources of COVID-19 related information were television 117 (36.8%) and healthcare professionals 105 (33%). The participants reported that they can be convinced to get vaccinated if more published data related to vaccine efficacy and safety is available 118 (37.1%), they observe no side effect among vaccine recipients 90 (28.3%) or higher government officials get the same vaccine 39 (12.3%). Vigorous analysis and publication of data generated is paramount to increase the percentage of people being vaccinated. The healthcare professionals should share evidence-based knowledge related to vaccine efficacy and safety through television and social media to increase acceptance rates and hence, decrease mortality and morbidity from COVID-19 in Pakistan.

关键词： COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Vaccine Side Effects Vaccine and Propaganda herd immunity

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