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Effects of the urban landscape on Heatwave-mortality associations in Hong Kong: comparison of different Heatwave definitions

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第1期18卷 145-156页

作者： Jinglu Song Yi Lu Thomas Fischer Kejia Hu Department of Urban Planning and Design Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool UniversitySuzhou 215123China Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering City University of Hong KongKowloon TongHong Kong 999077China Environmental Assessment and Management Research Centre School of Environmental SciencesUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpool L35TRUK Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management Faculty of Natural and Agricultural SciencesNorth West UniversityPotchefstroom 31750South Africa Institute of Big Data in Health Science School of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityZijingang CampusHangzhou 310058China

Despite increased attention given to potential modifiers of temperature-mortality associations, evidence for variations between different urban landscape characteristics remains limited. It is in this context that in this paper effect modifications of multiple urban landscape characteristics are explored under different Heatwave definitions for different age groups and gender in Hong Kong, China. Daily meteorological data and Heatwave-related mortality counts from 2008 to 2017 were collected from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, China. A case-only design was adopted, combined with logistic regression models to examine the modification effects of five urban landscape characteristics under six Heatwave definitions. Stratified analyses were conducted to investigate age- and gender-specific effect modifications. It is found that individuals living in greener areas experienced lower levels of mortality during or immediately after Heatwaves. In contrast, a higher building density and nighttime land surface temperature (LST) were associated with a higher Heatwave-related mortality risk. Pronounced effect modifications of these urban landscape characteristics were observed under hotter and longer Heatwaves, and in older adults (age ≥ 65 years) and males. The findings provide a scientific basis for policymakers and practitioners when considering measures for coping with hotter, longer, and more frequent Heatwaves in the context of global climate change.

关键词： Urban landscape Heatwave Mortality Effect modification Intra-urban differences Health risk reduction

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Unprecedented Heatwave in Western North America during Late June of 2021: Roles of Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第1期40卷 14-28页

作者： Chunzai WANG Jiayu ZHENG Wei LIN Yuqing WANG Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou) Guangzhou 511458China State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering Chinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An extraordinary and unprecedented Heatwave swept across western North America(i.e.,the Pacific Northwest)in late June of 2021,resulting in hundreds of deaths,a massive die-off of sea creatures off the coast,and horrific wildfires.Here,we use observational data to find the atmospheric circulation variabilities of the North Pacific and Arctic-Pacific-Canada patterns that co-occurred with the development and mature phases of the Heatwave,as well as the North America pattern,which coincided with the decaying and eastward movement of the Heatwave.Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(Phase 6)are not designed to simulate a particular Heatwave event like this one.Still,models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.

关键词： Heatwave climate change atmospheric circulation pattern Pacific Northwest

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Evaluating modified effects of family factors on intervention to protect primary school students from the impact of Heatwave

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 866-872页

作者： Rui ZHANG Bo SUN Si-Yuan WU Shui-Ling QU Yan WANG Yu-Jie MENG Song-Wang WANG Xiao-Yuan YAO Shilu TONG Yong-Hong LI Yi-Bin CHENG Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Bejing 102206China National Institute of Environmental Health Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100021China China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health National Institute of Environmental HealthChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100021China Sprott School of Businss Carleton UniversityOttawa Ontario KIS 5B6Canada School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology BrisbaneBrisbane 4006Australia

Identifying the factors that may impact intervention effectiveness of primary students is crucial for developing targeted intervention strategies on Heatwave adaption.The purpose of the study was to assess how the family factors could affect the intervention effects of primary school students to adapt Heatwave,using the data from a previously conducted primary school-based intervention study.The study recruited 648 students(9-13 years old)and their parents from two primary schools in Dongtai of Jiangsu province,China.From May to September 2017,a 5-mon intervention for enhancing knowledge,attitude and practice(KAP)was implemented at the intervention school.The students'KAP scores and the family-related information were measured by designed self-administered questionnaires at intervention school and control school separately before and after intervention.The effects of the intervention were explored through the propensity score matching and difference-in-difference method(PSM-DID),and stratifed analysis were conducted by family factors.The overall KAP score increased by 2.391(95%CI:1.881,2.902)after intervention,which shows that the intervention was effective.The students whose parents with higher school educational attainment,parents with employment,and household number≤3 achieved significantly higher increment of KAP scores than their counterparts.Although students whose parents in marriage achieved higher score increasing than parents not in marriage,the difference was non-significant.Our findings indicated that parental education status,working status and the household size were the influence factors of Heatwave adaption interventions for primary school students.Future interventions should take parental education status,working status and household size into account to improve the effectiveness of Heatwave adaption intervention for primary school students.

关键词： Heatwave Intervention Family factors Primary students Parents

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Defining region-specific Heatwave in China based on a novel concept of “avoidable mortality for each temperature unit decrease”

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第5期12卷 611-618页

作者： LIU Jiang-Mei AI Si-Qi QI Jin-Lei WANG Li-Jun ZHOU Mai-Geng WANG Chong-Jian YIN Peng LIN Hua-Liang National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention Chinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing100050China Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou510080China Department of Epidemiology School of Public HealthZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou450000China

The distribution of temperature and temperature-health association varied largely across different regions in China,a region-specific definition for Heatwave was therefore needed.We collected the data on daily mortality,meteorological factors and air pollution in 84 Chinese cities during 2013–2016,which was divided into seven regions.Based on the association between daily maximum temperature and mortality in each city in a threshold distributed lag non-linear model,where the threshold was defined as the temperature corresponding to the lowest mortality risk,we calculated the number of deaths that could be avoided for 1℃ decrease in maximum temperature under different thresholds,then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to generate regional results,in which the temperature with the highest avoidable mortality number for 1℃ decrease was considered as the most appropriate Heatwave definition.We observed an immediate detrimental effect of high temperature within three lag days.Our analysis suggested to use 29.5℃,31.5℃,29.0℃,31.5℃,30.0℃,and 28.5℃ as the Heatwave standard for east,north,northeast,central,south,and southwest region,with the avoidable mortality number of 1.54(95%Confidence interval(CI):0.88,2.19),0.55(95%CI:0.16,0.94),0.59(95%CI:0.32,0.86),1.14(95%CI:0.68,1.59),1.22(95%CI:0.54,1.90),and 0.78(95%CI:0.01,1.55),respectively,while the estimated number 0.19(95%CI:−0.02,0.40)in northwest region was not statistically significant.The concept of‘avoidable mortality for 1℃ decrease’was proposed to define the Heatwave event,and varied maximum temperature between 28.5 and 31.5℃ was suggested for region-specific Heatwave definition in China.

关键词： Heatwave Mortality burden Distributed lag non-linear model

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Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 1941-1951页

作者： Lixia ZHANG Xiaojing YU Tianjun ZHOU Wenxia ZHANG Shuai HU Robin CLARK State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory of Citie’s Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai China Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030 College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Met Office Hadley Centre ExeterEX13PBUK

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world,with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming.The past year,2022,has been no exception,with further records being broken.The year was marked by unprecedented Heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent,duration and intensity,with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least 1950.The extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3%of global land areas in 2022,which was the second most widespread year since 1980.Here,we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world:China’s Yangtze River region,western Europe,the western U.S.,the Horn of Africa and central South America.For each event,we review the potential roles of circulation,oceanic forcing(especially the“triple-dip”La Niña)and anthropogenic climate change,with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global perspective.This will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding,prediction and attribution of extreme events.

关键词： extreme event in 2022 Heatwave drought detection and attribution

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Sources of Subseasonal Prediction Skill for Heatwaves over the Yangtze River Basin Revealed from Three S2S Models

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2020年第12期37卷 1435-1450页

作者： Jiehong XIE Jinhua YU Haishan CHEN Pang-Chi HSU Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Based on the reforecast data(1999–2010)of three operational models[the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the U.S.(NCEP)and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)]that participated in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction(S2S)project,we identified the major sources of subseasonal prediction skill for Heatwaves over the Yangtze River basin(YRB).The three models show limited prediction skills in terms of the fraction of correct predictions for Heatwave days in summer;the Heidke Skill Score drops quickly after a 5-day forecast lead and falls down close to zero beyond the lead time of 15 days.The superior skill of the ECMWF model in predicting the intensity and duration of the YRB Heatwave is attributable to its fidelity in capturing the phase evolution and amplitude of high-pressure anomalies associated with the intraseasonal oscillation and the dryness of soil moisture induced by less precipitation via the land–atmosphere coupling.The effects of 10–30-day and 30–90-day circulation prediction skills on Heatwave predictions are comparable at shorter forecast leads(10 days),while the biases in 30–90-day circulation amplitude prediction show close connection with the degradation of Heatwave prediction skill at longer forecast leads(>15–20 days).The biases of intraseasonal circulation anomalies further affect precipitation anomalies and thus land conditions,causing difficulty in capturing extremely hot days and their persistence in the S2S models.

关键词： subseasonal prediction Heatwave Yangtze River Basin subseasonal-to-seasonal models

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Factor analysis of recent major Heatwaves in East Asia

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第1期15卷 374-383页

作者： Arim Yoon Jeongwon Kim Jooyeop Lee Hyun Min Sung Je-Woo Hong Seung-Ki Min Junhong Lee Jinkyu Hong Ecosystem-Atmosphere Process Laboratory Department of Atmospheric SciencesYonsei UniversitySeoul 03722Republic of Korea National Institute of Meteorological Sciences Jeju 63568Republic of Korea Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Korea Environment InstituteSejong 30121Republic of Korea Division of Environmental Science and Engineering Pohang University of Science and TechnologyPohang 37673Republic of Korea Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg 20146Germany Institute for Convergence Research and Education in Advanced Technology Yonsei UniversitySeoulRepublic of Korea

Heatwaves(HWs)present a major hazard to our society and more extreme Heatwaves are expected with future climatic changes.Hence,it is important to improve our understanding of the underlying processes that drive HWs,in order to boost our socioeconomic-ecological resilience.In this study,we quantified the influences of key driving factors(large-scale atmospheric circulation,soil moisture,and sea surface temperature)and their synergies on recent Heatwaves in East Asia.We conducted a factor separation analysis for three recent HW events by constraining the key factors in the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with their climatologies or pseudo-observations in different combinations.Our study showed distinct spatial variations in the HW-controlling factors in East Asia.The synergistic interaction of large-scale circulation and soil moisture was the most important factors in the 2013 Chinese HW.During the 2018 HWs in Korea and Japan,the same stagnant large-scale atmospheric circulation played a dominant role in driving the HW events.The land-atmosphere coupling via soil moisture,its interaction with circulation,and SST exhibited stronger influences during the Korean HW than the Japanese HW.Our analysis also revealed temporal variations in the factors driving Korean and Chinese HWs due to typhoon passage and other multiple processes over heterogeneous surfaces(i.e.,topographically induced Foehn winds,large-scale warm advection from the warm ocean,spatial differences in soil moisture).Our findings suggest that future Heatwave-related studies should consider interactive contributions of key factors,their interplay with surface heterogeneities of complex terrain.

关键词： Heatwave East Asia Large-scale circulation Soil moisture Sea surface temperature Synergistic impacts

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Assessment of Central Asian heat extremes by statistical downscaling:Validation and future projection for 2015-2100

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第1期13卷 14-27页

作者： Li-Jun FAN Zhong-Wei YAN Deliang CHEN Zhen LI Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden

Increasing Heatwaves and extreme temperatures have recently been observed across Central Asia(CA).Accurately assessing and projecting the changing climate extremes at the local(station)scale required for climate risk management are therefore highly important.However,global and regional climate models often fail to represent the statistical distributions of observed daily extreme variables and hence extremes in complex terrain.In this work,we developed a statistical downscaling(SD)model to project summer daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and Heatwave indices for 65 meteorological stations in CA toward 2100.The SD model involves first-order autoregression and multiple linear regression using large-scale Tmax and circulation indices(Cis)as predictors,and the model is cross-validated against historical observations.The local Tmax and Heatwave indices are then projected for 2015-2100 driven by the output of a global climate model(CNRM-CM6-1)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).The application of the SD model significantly improves forecasting of the probability distribution(10th/90th percentiles)of Tmax at stations,particularly across mountainous regions.The model also captures interannual variability and the long-term trend in Tmax,consistent with synoptic-scale inputs.SD projections demonstrate strong warming trends of summer Tmax in CA toward 2100 with rates between 0.35-0.64℃ per decade based on the SSP245 and SSP370 seenarios.Consequently,Heatwave occurrence is projected to rise by 1.0-5.0 and 2.0-7.0 d per decade under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios,respectively,by 2100.Duration,intensity,and amplitude of Heatwaves rise at greater rates under higher-emission scenarios,particularly in southeastern CA.The proposed SD model serves as a useful tool for assessing local climate extremes,which are needed for regional risk management and policymaking for adaption to climate change.

关键词： Heatwave Statistical downscaling Projection of local climate extremes Central Asia

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