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Projections of heat-related excess mortality in China due to climate change,population and aging

Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2023年第11期17卷 145-155页

作者： Zhao Liu Si Gao Wenjia Cai Zongyi Li Can Wang Xing Chen Zhiyuan Ma Zijian Zhao School of Airport Economics and Management Beijing Institute of Economics and ManagementBeijing 100102China Department of Earth System Science Institute for Global Change StudiesMinistry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory BirdsTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of Land Science and Technology China University of Geosciences(Beijing)Beijing 100083China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control(SKLESPC) and School of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO) Beijing 100052China

Climate change is one of the biggest health threats of the 21st century.Although China is the biggest developing country,with a large population and different climate types,its projections of large-scale heat-related excess mortality remain understudied.In particular,the effects of climate change on aging populations have not been well studied,and may result in significantly underestimation of heat effects.In this study,we took four climate change scenarios of Tier-1 in CMIP6,which were combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs).We used the exposure-response functions derived from previous studies combined with baseline age-specific non-accidental mortality rates to project heat-related excess mortality.Then,we employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method to decompose the impacts of climate change,population growth,and aging on heat-related excess mortality.Finally,we multiplied the heat-related Years of Life Lost(YLL)with the Value of a Statistical Life Year(VSLY)to quantify the economic burden of premature mortality.We found that the heat-related excess mortality would be concentrated in central China and in the densely populated south-eastern coastal regions.When aging is considered,heat-related excess mortality will become 2.8–6.7 times than that without considering aging in 2081–2100 under different scenarios.The contribution analysis showed that the effect of aging on heat-related deaths would be much higher than that of climate change.Our findings highlighted that aging would lead to a severe increase of heat-related deaths and suggesting that regional-specific policies should be formulated in response to heat-related risks.

关键词： heat-related excess mortality LMDI Aging YLL VSLY

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