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用统计降尺度模型预测川中丘陵区参考作物蒸散量

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农业工程学报 2016年第S1期32卷 71-79页

作者：冯禹崔宁博龚道枝魏新平中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室/农业部旱作节水农业重点实验室北京100081 四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室水利水电学院成都610065 南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室成都610066

区域蒸散量(evapotranspiration)预测对精准灌溉预报与农田水分管理意义重大。该文利用川中丘陵区11个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气象资料,采用FAO-56 Penman-Monteith公式计算参考作物蒸散量(reference evapotranspiration,ET0),基于Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3(hadcm3)的输出和统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)分别对A2(高温室气体排放)、B2(低温室气体排放)情景下川中丘陵区2014-2099年ET0进行预测,并使用Mann-Kendall检验和反距离加权插值法对1961-2099年ET0的时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明:基准期(1961-2010年)川中丘陵区ET0整体呈现明显下降趋势,空间上呈现出东北部、西北部和东南部相对较大、中部相对较小的差异;与基准期相比,A2、B2情景下未来2020 s(2011-2040年)、2050 s(2041-2070年)和2080 s(2071-2099年)川中丘陵区ET_0月和年均值都呈增大趋势;A2情景下3个时期ET0将分别增加7.9%、10.9%和16.7%,B2情景下ET_0将分别增加7.1%、4.9%和12.8%;A2、B2情景下3个时期川中丘陵区ET_0空间分布均呈现西北部和南部较大、中部较小的空间差异,且3个时期的ET0相对变化率显示中部及其偏北、偏南区域ET_0增幅相对较大,北部和南部增幅相对较小。因此,未来川中丘陵区ET0的上升可能导致水资源短缺与季节性干旱进一步加剧。该研究可为川中丘陵区水资源优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。

关键词：气候变化蒸散模型预测 hadcm3 统计降尺度气候情景川中丘陵区

Outlook of future climate in northwestern Ethiopia

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Agricultural Sciences 2012年第4期3卷 608-624页

作者： Dereje Ayalew Kindie Tesfaye Girma Mamo Birru Yitaferu Wondimu Bayu Amhara Region Agricultural Research Institute Bahir Dar Ethiopia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Haramaya University Haramaya Ethiopia Ethiopian Institute of Agric-Research Coordinator National Agro meteorology Research Nazreth Ethiopia ICARDA-Ethiopia National Project Officer International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas Bahir Dar Ethiopia

Climate change is described as the most universal and irreversible environmental problem facing the planet Earth. While climate change is already manifesting in Ethiopia through changes in temperature and rainfall, its magnitude is poorly studied at regional levels. The objective of this paper was to assess and quantify the magnitude of future changes of climate parameters using Statistical Downscaling Mode (SDSM) version 4.2 in Amhara Regional State which is located between 8°45‘N and 13°45‘N latitude and 35°46‘E and 40°25‘E longitude. Daily climate data (1979- 2008) of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were collected from 10 observed meteorological stations (predictand). The stations were grouped and compared using clustering and Markov chain model, whereas the degree of climate change in the study area was estimated using the coupled hadcm3 general circulation model (GCM) with A2a emission scenarios (Predictors). Both maximum and minimum temperatures showed an increasing trend;the increase in mean maximum temperature ranges between 1.55°C and 6.07°C and that of the mean minimum temperature ranges from 0.11°C and 2.81°C. While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. The negative changes in rainfall and temperature obtained from the hadcm3 model in the current study are alarming and suggest the need for further study with several GCM models to confirm the current results and develop adaptation options.

关键词： Amhara Regional State Climate Change Ethiopia hadcm3 Statistical Downscaling

Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator in Zambia: A Case of Mount Makulu Agriculture Research Station

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American Journal of Climate Change 2017年第3期6卷 487-512页

作者： Charles Bwalya Chisanga Elijah Phiri Vernon R. N. Chinene Ministry of Agriculture Ndola Zambia Department of Soil Science School of Agricultural Sciences University of Zambia Lusaka Zambia

The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) is a stochastic weather generator used for the simulation of weather data at a single site under both current and future climate conditions using General Circulation Models (GCM). It was calibrated using the baseline (1981-2010) and evaluated to determine its suitability in generating synthetic weather data for 2020 and 2055 according to the projections of hadcm3 and BCCR-BCM2 GCMs under SRB1 and SRA1B scenarios at Mount Makulu (Latitude: 15.550°S, Longitude: 28.250°E, Elevation: 1213 meter), Zambia. Three weather parameters—precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature were simulated using LARS-WG v5.5 for observed station and AgMERRA reanalysis data for Mount Makulu. Monthly means and variances of observed and generated daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were used to evaluate the suitability of LARS-WG. Other climatic conditions such as wet and dry spells, seasonal frost and heat spells distributions were also used to assess the performance of the model. The results showed that these variables were modeled with good accuracy and LARS-WG could be used with high confidence to reproduce the current and future climate scenarios. Mount Makulu did not experience any seasonal frost. The average temperatures for the baseline (Observed station data: 1981-2010 and AgMERRA reanalysis: 1981-2010) were 21.33°C and 22.21°C, respectively. Using the observed station data, the average temperature under SRB1 (2020), SRA1B (2020), SRB1 (2055), SRA1B (2055) would be 21.90°C, 21.94°C, 22.83°C and 23.18°C, respectively. Under the AgMERRA reanalysis, the average temperatures would be 22.75°C (SRB1: 2020), 22.80°C (SRA1B: 2020), 23.69°C (SRB1: 2055) and 24.05°C (SRA1B: 2055). The hadcm3 and BCM2 GCMs ensemble mean showed that the number of days with precipitation would increase while the mean precipitation amount in 2020s and 2050s under SRA1B would reduce by 6.19% to 6.65%. Precipitation would in

关键词： LARS-WG Statistical Downscaling Climate Change Scenarios hadcm3 BCCR-BCM2 GCMs

The Minimum and Maximum Temperature Forecast Using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Port-Harcourt Metropolis, Nigeria

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Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 2017年第4期7卷 424-435页

作者： Vincent Ezikornwor Weli Moses Okemini Nwagbara Famous Ozabor Department of Geography and Environmental Management University of Port-Harcourt Choba Nigeria Department of Soil Science and Meteorology Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike Nigeria

This study centers on applying the statistical downscaling technique to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures of Port Harcourt from the period 1985-2014. To select the period of calibration, the wilby and wigley assumption of 2014 was adopted. However, the Bruckner circle assumption was adopted in selecting the normal under review. Secondary data of minimum and maximum temperatures for Port Harcourt were collected from the archive of Nigerian meteorological agency (NIMET). The grid cell of the hadcm3 corresponding to the Port Harcourt meteorological station was selected from the hadcm3 website to generate the largescale predictors. Data for temperature was there after normalized for the period of calibration. To analyze data, ANOVA and Paired t tests were used. Result showed that, the model was significant at p °C from 1960-2080, while for B2 the increase will be 0.18°C for same period. For minimum temperature, the ANOVA also showed a difference of 0.21°C and 0.11°C for A2 and B2 respectively. The paired t test statistics showed that these variations in temperatures for both maximum and minimum at A2 and B2 scenarios are significant at p < 0.05. Reforestation, afforestation, carbon sequestration are strongly advocated.

关键词： hadcm3 Temperature Downscaling Port–Harcourt Normal

Assessment of Climate Change for Precipitation and Temperature Using Statistical Downscaling Methods in Upper Godavari River Basin, India

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Journal of Water Resource and Protection 2016年第1期8卷 31-45页

作者： Vidya R. Saraf Dattatray G. Regulwar Department of Civil Engineering Government College of Engineering Jalgaon Maharashtra State India Department of Civil Engineering Government College of Engineering Aurangabad Maharashtra State India

In the present study SDSM downscaling model was used as a tool for downscaling weather data statistically in upper Godavari river basin. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 and hadcm3, have been used to project future maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation. The predictor variables are extracted from: 1) the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1961-2003, 2) the simulations from the third-generation Hadlycentre Coupled Climate Model (hadcm3) and Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) variability and changes in Tmax, Tmin and precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model and A2 and B2 of hadcm3 model have been presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The scatter-plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation. Maximum temperature increases in future for almost all the scenarios for both GCMs. Also downscaled future precipitation shows increasing trends for all scenarios.

关键词： Downscaling CGCM3 hadcm3 Scenario Temperature Precipitation

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妫水河流域未来气候变化下的水文响应研究

人民黄河 2014年第1期36卷 48-51页

作者：郭彬斌张静宫辉力程晓光首都师范大学城市环境过程与数字模拟国家重点实验室培育基地北京100048 首都师范大学资源环境与地理信息系统北京市重点实验室北京100048 首都师范大学三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室北京100048

通过hadcm3降尺度数据与HSPF水文模型耦合,探讨了未来气候变化情景下妫水河流域日最高、最低气温与降水量的变化情况。基于统计降尺度模型SDSM,将1961—2099年数据降尺度到各站点,生成了两种气候变化情景下的日最高气温(T max)、最低气... 详细信息

通过hadcm3降尺度数据与HSPF水文模型耦合,探讨了未来气候变化情景下妫水河流域日最高、最低气温与降水量的变化情况。基于统计降尺度模型SDSM,将1961—2099年数据降尺度到各站点,生成了两种气候变化情景下的日最高气温(T max)、最低气温(T min)和降水量(P)数据。同时,构建了HSPF水文模型,分别用2005—2006年、2007—2008年数据进行了有效率定和验证,模拟了该流域在未来气候变化下的水文响应。结果表明:妫水河流域未来90 a的气温总体呈升高趋势,而降水量和地表流量呈减小趋势;高温室气体排放情景下日最高气温、最低气温、降水量和地表流量的10 a变化率分别为0.462℃、0.453℃、-0.010 mm、-0.051 m3/s,低温室气体排放情境下分别为0.263℃、0.264℃、-0.014 mm、-0.044 m3/s,流域干旱加剧的可能性进一步加大。

关键词： hadcm3 SDSM HSPF水文模型气温降水量气候变化情景妫水河流域

基于SDSM-SWAT的气候变化下东江流域径流预测模拟

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人民珠江 2016年第4期37卷 1-6页

作者：翟文亮李朋俊林凯荣张凡中山大学水资源与环境系广东广州510275 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室广东广州510275

通过耦合SDSM统计降尺度模型和SWAT水文模型,探讨气候变化下东江流域的未来气候及其径流响应。首先基于SDSM模型,将2011—2099年hadcm3模式下A2和B2两种情景数据降尺度到东江流域各站点,生成未来气候要素(气温和降水);然后建立适用于东... 详细信息

通过耦合SDSM统计降尺度模型和SWAT水文模型,探讨气候变化下东江流域的未来气候及其径流响应。首先基于SDSM模型,将2011—2099年hadcm3模式下A2和B2两种情景数据降尺度到东江流域各站点,生成未来气候要素(气温和降水);然后建立适用于东江流域的SWAT模型,并模拟该流域未来气候变化下的径流响应。结果表明:未来东江流域的气温、降水量和径流量均呈增加趋势;且A2情景下各气候水文要素的增加速度比B2情景下更快。研究结果可为东江流域的流域综合管理和水资源的可持续利用提供一定的科学依据。

关键词：气候变化 SWAT SDSM hadcm3 东江流域

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丹江口水库未来径流变化趋势预测研究

南水北调与水利科技 2008年第4期6卷 78-82页

作者：郭靖郭生练陈华闫宝伟张俊武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室武汉430072

应用统计降尺度法将全球气候模式和两参数月水量平衡模型进行耦合,研究未来A2气候情景下丹江口水库径流变化趋势。首先应用统计降尺度法在CGCM2和hadcm3模式下分别预测未来汉江流域上游的月降水和气温情况,然后将它们输入两参数月水量... 详细信息

应用统计降尺度法将全球气候模式和两参数月水量平衡模型进行耦合,研究未来A2气候情景下丹江口水库径流变化趋势。首先应用统计降尺度法在CGCM2和hadcm3模式下分别预测未来汉江流域上游的月降水和气温情况,然后将它们输入两参数月水量平衡模型,模拟预测丹江口水库的月径流过程。结果表明,在CGCM2气候模式下,丹江口水库径流在2020s和2050s时段比近期减少,2080s时段比近期增加;在hadcm3气候模式下,丹江口水库径流在未来三个时段均比近期增加。

关键词：气候变化丹江口水库统计降尺度法两参数月水量平衡模型 CGCM2 hadcm3