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Parameter uncertainty and identifiability of a conceptual semi-distributed model to simulate hydrological processes in a small headwater catchment in Northwest China

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Ecological Processes 2014年第1期3卷 142-158页

作者： Shuai Ouyang Heike Puhlmann Shunli Wang Klaus von Wilpert Osbert Jianxin Sun Institute of Forestry and Climate Change Research Beijing Forestry University35 Qinghua East RoadHaidian DistrictBeijing 100083China Chair of Hydrology University of FreiburgFahnenbergplatz79098 Freiburg i.Br.Germany Academy of Water Resource Conservation Forests in Qilian Mountains Zhangye 734000GansuProvinceChina Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg Department of Soils and EnvironmentWonnhaldestr.479100 Freiburg i.Br.Germany

Introduction:Conceptual hydrological models are useful tools to support catchment water ***,the identifiability of parameters and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling prove to be a difficult ***,we aim to evaluate the performance of a conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model,hbv-light,with emphasis on parameter identifiability,uncertainty,and model structural ***:The results of a regional sensitivity analysis(RSA)show that most of the model parameters are highly sensitive when runoff signatures or combinations of different objective functions are *** based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation(GLUE)method further show that most of the model parameters are well constrained,showing higher parameter identifiability and lower model uncertainty when runoff signatures or combined objective functions are ***,the dynamic identifiability analysis(DYNIA)shows different types of parameter behavior and reveals that model parameters have a higher identifiability in periods where they play a crucial role in representing the predicted ***:The hbv-light model is generally able to simulate the runoff in the Pailugou catchment with an acceptable *** parameter sensitivity is largely dependent upon the objective function used for the model evaluation in the sensitivity *** frequent runoff observations would substantially increase the knowledge on the rainfall-runoff transformation in the catchment and,specifically,improve the distinction of fast surface-near runoff and interflow components in their contribution to the total catchment *** results highlight the importance of identifying the periods when intensive monitoring is critical for deriving parameter values of reduced uncertainty.

关键词： Dynamic identifiability analysis hbv-light model Hydrological modeling Sensitivity analysis Uncertainty analysis

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Runoff components and the contributions of precipitation and temperature in a highly glacierized river basin in Central As

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2023年第2期17卷 361-377页

作者： Anqian WANG Buda SU Jinlong HUANG Cheng JING Zbigniew WKUNDZEWICZ Hui TAO Mingjin ZHAN Tong JIANG College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geography Science Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqi 830011China Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of SciencesPoznan 60809Poland Jiangxi Eco-meteorological Center Nanchang 330000China

Understanding the main drivers of runoff components and contributions of precipitation and temperature have important implications for water-limited inland basins,where snow and glacier melt provide essential inputs to surface *** quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on river runoff in the Tarim River basin(TRB),the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning(hbv)-light model,which contains a glacier routine process,was applied to analyze the change in runoff *** in the headstream parts of the TRB was more sensitive to temperature than to *** the TRB,overall,rainfall generated 41.22%of the total runoff,while snow and glacier meltwater generated 20.72%and 38.06%,*** values indicate that temperature exerted more major effects on runoff than did *** compositions were different in the various subbasins and may have been caused by different glacier *** runoff volumes generated by rainfall,snowmelt,glacier melt was almost equal in the Aksu River *** the Yarkand and Hotan River subbasins,glacier meltwater was the main supplier of runoff,accounting for 46.72%and 58.73%,*** the Kaidu-Kongque River subbasin,80.86%was fed by rainfall and 19.14%was fed by *** the TRB,runoff generated by rainfall was the dominant component in spring,autumn,winter,while glacier melt runoff was the dominant component in *** in the TRB significantly increased during 1961–2016;additionally,56.49%of the increase in runoff was contributed by temperature changes,and 43.51%was contributed by precipitation *** spring,the runoff increase in the TRB was mainly caused by the precipitation increase,opposite result in summer and *** of temperature was negative in *** findings have important implications for water resource management in high mountainous regions and for similar river basins in which melting glaciers strongly impact the hydrological

关键词： runoff components glacier meltwater contribution hbv-light model Tarim River basin

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