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Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s Global warming slowdown?

Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected Global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate it.Here,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent Global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown.The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown.They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration.This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal scales.In contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities.Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models global warming Global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

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Shortened Duration of Global warming slowdowns with Elevated Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2021年第2期35卷 225-237页

作者： Feng GAO Tongwen WU Jie ZHANG Aixue HU Gerald AMEEHL Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China China Meteorological Administration Training Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Center for Atmospheric Research PO Box 3000BoulderColorado 80307-3000USA

Continuous emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases(GHGs)and aerosols in the last 160 years have resulted in an increasing trend of global mean surface temperatures(GMSTs).Due to interactions with natural variability,rates of the combined anthropogenically and naturally induced warming trends are characterized by significant slowdowns and speedups on decadal timescales.Here,by analyzing observed and model-simulated data,we investigate how the duration of these episodes will change with different strengths of GHG and aerosol forcing.We found that the duration of warming slowdowns can be more than 30 yr with a slower rate of anthropogenic emissions but would shorten to about 5 yr with a higher one.This duration reduction depends on both the magnitude of the climate response to anthropogenic forcing and the strength of the internal variability.Moreover,the warming slowdowns can still occur even towards the end of this century under high emissions scenarios but with significantly shortened duration.

关键词： Global warming slowdown greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions internal variability

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