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Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under Global warming in CMIP6 models

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2024年第1期42卷 24-40页

作者： Xue HAN Junqiao FENG Yunlong LU Dunxin HU Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Center for Ocean Mega-Science Chinese Academy of SciencesQingdao 266071China Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China

The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under Global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under Global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under Global warming,with a general agreement across models.

关键词： interior subtropical cell(STC) Global warming Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6) western boundary transport

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Impacts of 1.5℃ Global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 904-912页

作者： Jin-Lei CHEN Shi-Chang KANG A-Dan WU Di-Di HU State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province Northwest Insttute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73000 China

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape,while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5℃ of the Paris Agreement.This study investigated the impact of 1.5℃ Global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria.The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5℃ warming.Sea ice is mostly less than three years old,and the younger,thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR.Ships above Polar Class(PC)6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year.Besides,the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October-December,while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships.Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea,its surrounding straits,and the Parry Channel.These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping,and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

关键词： Arctic Sea ice Northern sea route Northwest passage Global warming

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Changes in global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global warming:Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第8期39卷 1285-1298,I0002-I0010页

作者： Xiaofei GAO Jiawen ZHU Xiaodong ZENG Minghua ZHANG Yongjiu DAI Duoying JI He ZHANG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook UniversityNY 11790USA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China College of global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems,and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to Global warming.This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to Global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2).We conducted two sets of simulations,a present-day simulation and a future simulation,which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981-2000 and the future climate during 2081-2100,respectively,as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in CMIP5.CO_(2)concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO_(2)-fertilization effects.The results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to Global warming,which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the tropics.The results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to Global warming,including gross primary productivity,net primary productivity,and autotrophic respiration.We found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature,reflecting the dominant role of temperature,while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index,temperature,and precipitation.This study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming.Even though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO_(2)-fertilization effects,this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations.

关键词： Global warming vegetation distribution carbon flux leaf area index surface air temperature

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Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of Global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

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China Geology 2022年第3期5卷 475-509页

作者： Zhen-quan Lu Chu-guo Wu Neng-you Wu Hai-long Lu Ting Wang Rui Xiao Hui Liu Xin-he Wu Oil and Gas Survey China Geological SurveyMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100083China Information Center Ministry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100036China Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology China Geological SurveyQingdao 266237China School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking UniversityBeijing 100871China

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the Global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of Global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of Global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to Global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of Global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to Global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thicknes

关键词： Climate change Global warming Permafrost Gas hydrate Greenhouse effect Carbon emission Peak carbon dioxide emissions Carbon neutrality Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environment geological survey engineering China

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Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s Global warming slowdown?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected Global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate it.Here,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent Global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the slowdown.The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown.They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration.This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal scales.In contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural variabilities.Our work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models Global warming Global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

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Future extreme climate changes linked to Global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang Dabang Jiang Xianmei Lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to Global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C Global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the Global warming magnitude.Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the Global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection Global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

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Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed Global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2021年第4期12卷 499-507页

作者： HU Xiao-Ming MA Jie-Ru YING Jun CAI Ming KONG Yun-Qi School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai519082China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyState Oceanic AdministrationHangzhou310012China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai519082China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China Department of Earth Oceanand Atmospheric ScienceFlorida State UniversityTallahassee32306USA

The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes,which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate change.Climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)show a much stronger Arctic wanning signal but with a larger inter-model spread.In this study,we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated Global warming trend during the period of 1981-2011 in historical runs.This enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed Global warming during the instrument era.The fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981-2011,therefore,would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection.

关键词： CMIP6 Arctic warming projection Global warming Observational constraint

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Diatom Response to Global warming in Douhu Lake,Southeast China

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2021年第2期95卷 638-647页

作者： LI Jingjing WANG Luo CAO Qi Patrick RIOUAL LEI Guoliang CAI Binggui ZHANG Jiaoyang ZOU Yafei YAN Yao WAN Xiaoqiao XIAO Jule School of Earth Sciences and Resources China University of Geosciences(Beijing)Beijing 100083China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Ecogeographical Processes of the Ministry of Education Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China Institute of Geography Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

A large number of lacustrine sedimentary records indicate that Global warming is the main factor leading to significant changes in diatom communities in lakes of the northern hemisphere.However,due to the intensification of human activities since 1850,some scholars have emphasized that the increasing lake trophic level may be the main reason for the changes in diatom communities.The debate is ongoing.In order to avoid falling into the complex relationship between diatom changes and the seasonal cycle that characterizes lakes in mid and high latitudes,we chose a lake located at a low latitude,where the relationship between diatoms and temperature is not indirect but direct.The diatom record spans the past ca.100 years and reveals that the abundance of Aulacoseira granulata increased from 1900 until 1985,replacing the previously dominant Aulacoseira ambigua.These changes are in agreement with the increasing trend in global temperature.Since 1985,the percentages of the small-celled Discostella stelligera and the benthic diatom Navicula heimansioides have increased,while Aulacoseira granulata has decreased.This latest shift is caused by further Global warming.We conclude that warming is the main factor leading to changing diatom communities in Douhu Lake.

关键词： diatom Global warming Douhu Lake China

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Impacts of Global warming on southern California's winegrape climate suitability

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2020年第3期11卷 279-293页

作者： Corrie MONTE VERDE Fernando DE SALES Geography Department San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA92182USA

Southern California has seen a resurgence of winegrowing regions in the past few decades,however the future of winegrape climatic suitability in the area has not been exhaustively explored.This study evaluated the future climate suitability for the cultivation of winegrape and potential Global warming impacts on southern California's winegrowing regions through a series of high-resolution surface air temperature and precipitation projections obtained with the WRF-SSIB regional climate model.Results reveal that by mid-21st-century the surface air temperature will increase by approximately 1.2℃,while average precipitation will decrease by as much as 11%in the southern winegrowing areas under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario.Evaluation of bioclimatic suitability indices indicate increases in heat accumulation for all major winegrowing areas;including an increase of about 10% in growing-degree day,while morning low temperatures in September may experience increases of approximately 11% in the future,thus impacting negatively the ripening stage of grapevines and leading to changes in wine composition and quality.Additionally,the extent of areas classified under the cool to warm climate suitability categories could decrease by nearly 42% in the study area by 2050.Conditions in southern California are already warm and dry for viticulture and continuing heat accumulation increase,along with rainfall reduction,could potentially place additional stress to winegrape crop in the area,including advanced phenological timing and moisture deficit stress that could lead to decreases in yield.The projected decline in viticulture suitability highlights the need for adaptive capacity within this sector to mitigate the impacts of Global warming.Possible mitigating strategies include planting hotter climate grape varieties,moving vineyards to regions that are more suitable in the future,and adopting dry-farming techniques.

关键词： Global warming Winegrape suitability Regional climate modeling Bioclimatic indices Dynamical downscaling

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1960-2015年中国绿洲胡杨生长季对全球变暖的时空响应及原因（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2018年第5期28卷 579-594页

作者：张文霞刘普幸冯青荣汪天广王天强 College of Geography and Environmental Science Northwest Normal University

Daily average temperature data from 48 meteorological stations in Chinese oases that are within the distribution area of Populus euphratica were analyzed to determine the spatiotemporal responses of this tree to climate change. Specifically, the start and end date as well as the number of days that comprised the growing season were analyzed with a multi-year trend line and using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW) in the software Arc GIS, a Morlet wavelet power spectrum, and correlation analysis. The results of this study show that, over the last 56 years, the start date of the P. euphratica growing season has advanced, while the end date has been postponed, and the number of days that comprise the growing season have gradually increased. The changing trend rates recovered in this analysis for these three time slices are –1.34 d/10 a, 1.33 d/10 a, and 2.66 d/10 a(α ≥ 0.001), respectively. Data show that while spatial disparity is extremely significant, it is nevertheless the case that along a southwest-to-northeast transect of Chinese oases, the later the start date of the P. euphratica season, the sooner the end data and the shorter the growing season. Mutations points in start and end date, as well as for the growing season overall were observed in 2001, 1989, and 1996, respectively, and the data presented in this paper show that, in particular, the date of this end of this period is most sensitive to climate warming. Growing season cycles for P. euphratica are between 3.56 years and 7.14 years, consistent with the periodicity of El Ni?o events, while a start date cycle between 3.56 years and 4.28 years is consistent with atmospheric circulation cyclicity. The causal analysis presented in this paper shows that the Asian polar vortex area index(APVAI), the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau index(TPI), the westerly circulation index(WCI), and carbon dioxide emissions(CDE) are the main factors influencing spatiotemporal changes in the growth of P. euphratica, the effect of latitude dur

关键词： Populus euphratica annual growing season Global warming responses to climate change Chinese oases

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