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Abrupt Summer Warming and Changes in Temperature Extremes over Northeast Asia Since the Mid-1990s: Drivers and Physical Processes

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第9期33卷 1005-1023页

作者： Buwen DONG Rowan T.SUTTON Wei CHEN Xiaodong LIU Riyu LU Ying SUN National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of Meteorology University of Reading State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences National climate Center China Meteorological Administration

This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature （SAT） over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface wanning, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature （Tmax）, daily minimum temperature （Train）, annual hottest day temperature （TXx）, and annual warmest night temperature （TNx） were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days （SU） and tropical nights （TR）. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature （SST）/sea ice extent （SIE）, anthropogenic greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol （AA） forcing, relative to the period 1964- 93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA （through aerosol- radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions）, mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply

关键词： surface warming temperature extremes global climate model anthropogenic greenhouse gas anthropogenic aerosol SST/SIE Northeast Asia mid-1990s

Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional climate models

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Chinese Geographical Science 2010年第3期20卷 226-235页

作者： JIANG Ying Luo Yong ZHAO Zongci SHI Ying XU Yinlong ZHU Jinhong National climate Center of China Beijing 100081 China Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Illinois State Water Survey Department of Natural Resources University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Champaign Illinois 61820 USA

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs), i.e., RegCM3 (the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional climate model), PRECIS (Providing Regional climates for Impacts Studies) and CMM5 (the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, NCAR Mesoscale model) to simulate the near-surface-layer winds (10 m above surface) all over China in the late 20th century. Results suggest that like global climate models (GCMs), these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country. However, RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed. In view of their merits, these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century. The results show that 1) summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2) annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3) the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain. As a result, although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come, there are great uncertainties in projections, especially for wind speed, and these issues need to be further explored.

关键词： wind speed projection regional climate model global climate model

Seasonal Predictions of Summer Precipitation in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with global and Regional models Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第9期39卷 1561-1578页

作者： Wushan YING Huiping YAN Jing-Jia LUO Institute for climate and Application Research(ICAR)/ILCEC Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Accurate prediction of the summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)is of urgent demand for the local economic and societal *** study assesses the seasonal forecast skill in predicting summer precipitation over the MLYR region based on the global climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously SINTEX-F).The results show that the model can provide moderate skill in predicting the interannual variations of the MLYR rainbands,initialized from 1 *** addition,the nine-member ensemble mean can realistically reproduce the links between the MLYR precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,but the individual members show great discrepancies,indicating large uncertainty in the ***,the NUIST-CFS1.0 can predict five of the seven extreme summer precipitation anomalies over the MLYR during 1982-2020,albeit with underestimated *** Weather Forecast and Research(WRF)downscaling hindcast experiments with a finer resolution of 30 km,which are forced by the large-scale information of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions with a spectral nudging method,display improved predictions of the extreme summer precipitation anomalies to some ***,the performance of the downscaling predictions is highly dependent on the global model forecast skill,suggesting that further improvements on both the global and regional climate models are needed.

关键词： seasonal forecast summer precipitation global climate model WRF downscaling

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2006年第1期23卷 54-60页

作者： Deliang CHEN Christine ACHBERGER Jouni R■IS■NEN Cecilia HELLSTRM Earth Sciences Centre Gothenburg UniversityGothenburgSweden Laboratory for Climate Studies/National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina Earth Sciences Centre Gothenburg UniversityGothenburgSweden Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of HelsinkiFinland

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

关键词： Statistical downscaling global climate model climate change scenario uncertainty

An Introduction to the Integrated climate model of the Center for Monsoon System Research and Its Simulated Influence of El Ni?no on East Asian–Western North Pacific climate

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2014年第5期31卷 1136-1146页

作者： HUANG Ping WANG Pengfei HU Kaiming HUANG Gang ZHANG Zhihua LIU Yong YAN Bangliang Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science Key Laboratory of Regional climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Science National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated climate model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （CMSR, IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature （SST） and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.

关键词： Integrated climate model (ICM) global climate model E1 Nifio East Asian climate

Asian climate change under 1.5-4 ℃ warming targets

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Advances in climate Change Research 2017年第2期8卷 99-107页

作者： XU Ying ZHOU Bo-Tao WU Jie HAN Zhen-Yu ZHANG Yong-Xiang WU Jia National climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather （anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation）, extremely hot weather （anomalies greater than 3or）, and extremely heavy precipitation （anomalies greater than 3σ） occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period （1861-1900）.

关键词： global climate model CMIP5 Warming target climate extreme climate change

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2012年第1期4卷 56-64页

作者： Ke Liu Jie Pan ShengCai Tao YinLong Xu Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment ＆ climate Change of Agriculture Beijing 100081 China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961-1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models （such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47） during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of mul- ti-model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991-1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011-2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B 1. Analyzed results show that：（1） global climate models can repro- duce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. （2） With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. （3） Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991-1999, we can simulate the trend of temper- ature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. （4） For the period of 20ll-2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1℃. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B 1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8℃; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1℃.

关键词： global climate model different weighing multi-model ensemble same weighing multi-model ensemble wanning

Prediction of climate Change in the 21^(st) Century in Dalian Area under the Various Emission Scenarios

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Meteorological and Environmental Research 2010年第5期1卷 66-70页

作者：程相坤任学慧刘捷中国海洋大学海洋环境学院山东青岛266003 辽宁省大连市气象局辽宁大连116001 辽宁师范大学自然地理与空间信息科学辽宁省重点实验室辽宁大连116029 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院辽宁大连116029

By using the simulative results of more than 20 climate system models which were provided by the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change(IPCC),the climate change in Dalian area in the 21st century under the different scenarios(SRES A2,SRES A1B and SRES B1) were analyzed and predicted with the multi-model's aggregative simulative results via the interpolation downscaling *** results showed that the climate in Dalian would have the obvious warming and wetting tendency in the 21st century as a *** annual average warming tendency of air temperature would be 2.45-3.46 ℃/100 years,and the annual precipitation increase trend would be 5.8%-16.3% per 100 *** warming in winter would be the most obvious,and the precipitation increase would be comparatively obvious in winter and *** precipitation decrease would be comparatively obvious in autumn in the previous period of 21st *** A2,A1B and B1 scenarios,the air temperatures in the late period of 21st century would respectively be 3.46,3.44 and 2.45 ℃ higher than in the ordinary years,and the annual precipitation would respectively be 16.3%,11.8% and 5.79% more than in the ordinary years.

关键词： global climate model IPCC AR4 climate change Surface temperature Precipitation China