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Air temperature feedback and its contribution to global warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2018年第10期61卷 1491-1509页

作者： Xiaoming HU Ming CAI Song YANG Sergio A.SEJAS School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Guangzhou 510275 China Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences Florida State University Tallahassee 32306 USA Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System Sun Yat-sen University Guangzhou 510275 China NASA Langley Research Center Climate Science Branch Hampton 03842 USA

Air temperature feedback results from the thermal-radiative coupling between the atmosphere and the surface and plays an important role in surface energy balance. This paper reveals the contribution of air temperature feedback to the global warming from 1980 to 2000. The air temperature feedback kernel, evaluated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, is used to discuss the physical mechanism for air temperature feedback, the dependency of the strength of air temperature feedback on the climatological spatial distributions of air temperature, water vapor and cloud content, and the contributions of air temperature feedback to rapid global warming. The coupling between temperature feedback and each of the external forcings and individual feedback processes will amplify the anomaly of direct energy flux convergence at the surface induced by the external forcings and individual processes. The air temperature feedback amplifies the initial surface warming due to the increase in CO2 concentration, ice and snow melting, increase in water vapor, and change in ocean heat storage. It also amplifies the surface warming due to the longwave radiaitve forcing associated with the increase in cloud cover, which acts to suppress the cooling of the shortwave effect of cloud forcing. Overall, temperature feedback plays an important role in the global warming from 1980 to2000, as the net positive contribution to the perturbation of global mean energy flux at the surface from the air temperature feedback is larger than the net negative contribution from external forcing and all non-temperature feedbacks.

关键词： global warming Air temperature feedback Surface energy budget

Could CMIP6 climate models reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown?

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Science China Earth Sciences 2021年第6期64卷 853-865页

作者： Meng WEI Qi SHU Zhenya SONG Yajuan SONG Xiaodan YANG Yongqing GUO Xinfang LI Fangli QIAO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling Qingdao266061China Marine Science and Technology College Zhejiang Ocean UniversityZhoushan316000China

The unexpected global warming slowdown during 1998–2013 challenges the existing scientific understanding of global temperature change mechanisms,and thus the simulation and prediction ability of state-of-the-art climate models since most models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)cannot simulate ***,we examine whether the new-generation climate models in CMIP6 can reproduce the recent global warming slowdown,and further evaluate their capacities for simulating key-scale natural variabilities which are the most likely causes of the *** results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5,most of them still fail to reproduce the warming *** considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013,exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed *** is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and/or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual,interdecadal,and multidecadal *** contrast,the 4 models that can successfully reproduce the slowdown show relatively high skills in simulating the long-term warming trend and the three keyscale natural *** work may provide important insight for the simulation and prediction of near-term climate changes.

关键词： CMIP6 climate models global warming global warming slowdown Hiatus Climate natural variability Anthropogenic warming trend

Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity

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Science Bulletin 2017年第24期62卷 1673-1680页

作者： Xiaoxin Wang Dabang Jiang Xianmei Lang Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101 China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225 China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China

Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5(RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21 st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it,such as the weakening of the link projected after 3 °C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming *** with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5 °C.

关键词： Projection global warming Climate extremes Linkage Uncertainty

Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第7期11卷 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song Botao Zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

关键词： global warming Meiyu–Baiu extremes human activity culture and civilization

Numerical simulation of the effects of global warming on vegetation in Asia

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第5期13卷 688-699页

作者： Zheng-Qiu ZHANG Pan-Mao ZHAI Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing 100081China

The response of vegetation to global warming is closely related to human living environment,and uncertainty in understanding the response *** study aims to investigate the effects of CO_(2),temperature and precipitation changes under global warming on natural vegetation in *** biophysical/dynamic vegetation model SSiB4/TRIFFID was employed to perform numerical experiments under different climate scenarios for Asia using the Princeton global forcing dataset(1948–2006).The results showed that precipitation and CO_(2) were the key factors for vegetation *** effect of temperature on natural vegetation varied among the study ***,an increase in temperature was conducive to vegetation growth in eastern Asia,but not in the arid and semi-arid areas of western *** arid and semi-arid areas or in the vicinity of desert,the forcing effects of temperature,precipitation and CO_(2) were more remarkable,which led to a noticeable change in the area of bare *** terms of the distribution of vegetation species,the above forcing had a greater impact on shrubs,C3 grasses and C4 plants,but less of an impact on broadleaf and coniferous *** was also found that,although there was a notable positive correlation between precipitation and vegetation leaf area index in northern high latitudes,the vegetation cover did not increase with precipitation,which was countered by the negative effect of surface cooling in summer.

关键词： global warming Temperature Precipitation CO_(2) SSiB4/TRIFFID Model simulation Vegetation dynamics

Diatom Response to global warming in Douhu Lake,Southeast China

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2021年第2期95卷 638-647页

作者： LI Jingjing WANG Luo CAO Qi Patrick RIOUAL LEI Guoliang CAI Binggui ZHANG Jiaoyang ZOU Yafei YAN Yao WAN Xiaoqiao XIAO Jule School of Earth Sciences and Resources China University of Geosciences(Beijing)Beijing 100083China Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China CAS Center for Excellence in Life and Paleoenvironment Beijing 100044China Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Ecogeographical Processes of the Ministry of Education Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China Institute of Geography Fujian Normal UniversityFuzhou 350007China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

A large number of lacustrine sedimentary records indicate that global warming is the main factor leading to significant changes in diatom communities in lakes of the northern ***,due to the intensification of human activities since 1850,some scholars have emphasized that the increasing lake trophic level may be the main reason for the changes in diatom *** debate is *** order to avoid falling into the complex relationship between diatom changes and the seasonal cycle that characterizes lakes in mid and high latitudes,we chose a lake located at a low latitude,where the relationship between diatoms and temperature is not indirect but *** diatom record spans the past ca.100 years and reveals that the abundance of Aulacoseira granulata increased from 1900 until 1985,replacing the previously dominant Aulacoseira *** changes are in agreement with the increasing trend in global *** 1985,the percentages of the small-celled Discostella stelligera and the benthic diatom Navicula heimansioides have increased,while Aulacoseira granulata has *** latest shift is caused by further global *** conclude that warming is the main factor leading to changing diatom communities in Douhu Lake.

关键词： diatom global warming Douhu Lake China

Changes in global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to global warming:Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第8期39卷 1285-1298,I0002-I0010页

作者： Xiaofei GAO Jiawen ZHU Xiaodong ZENG Minghua ZHANG Yongjiu DAI Duoying JI He ZHANG International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook UniversityNY 11790USA School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen UniversityGuangzhou 510275China College of global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems,and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global *** study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2).We conducted two sets of simulations,a present-day simulation and a future simulation,which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981-2000 and the future climate during 2081-2100,respectively,as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in ***_(2)concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO_(2)-fertilization *** results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to global warming,which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the *** results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to global warming,including gross primary productivity,net primary productivity,and autotrophic *** found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature,reflecting the dominant role of temperature,while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index,temperature,and *** study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate *** though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO_(2)-fertilization effects,this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations.

关键词： global warming vegetation distribution carbon flux leaf area index surface air temperature

Strengthening of the Walker Circulation under global warming in an Aqua-Planet General Circulation Model Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2015年第11期32卷 1473-1480页

作者： Tim LI ZHANG Lei Hiroyuki MURAKAMI AORC/IPRC and Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Hawaii International Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change and Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

Most climate models project a weakening of the Walker circulation under global warming scenarios. It is argued, based on a global averaged moisture budget, that this weakening can be attributed to a slower rate of rainfall increase compared to that of moisture increase, which leads to a decrease in ascending motion. Through an idealized aqua-planet simulation in which a zonal wavenumber-1 SST distribution is prescribed along the equator, we find that the Walker circulation is strengthened under a uniform 2-K SST warming, even though the global mean rainfall-moisture relationship remains the same. Further diagnosis shows that the ascending branch of the Walker cell is enhanced in the upper troposphere but weakened in the lower troposphere. As a result, a ＂double-cell＂ circulation change pattern with a clockwise （anti-clockwise） circulation anomaly in the upper （lower） troposphere forms, and the upper tropospheric circulation change dominates. The mechanism for the formation of the ＂double cell＂ circulation pattern is attributed to a larger （smaller） rate of increase of diabatic heating than static stability in the upper （lower） troposphere. The result indicates that the future change of the Walker circulation cannot simply be interpreted based on a global mean moisture budget argument.

关键词： Walker circulation global warming aqua-planet simulation

Impacts of 1.5℃ global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 904-912页

作者： Jin-Lei CHEN Shi-Chang KANG A-Dan WU Di-Di HU State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu Province Northwest Insttute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73000 China

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape,while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5℃ of the Paris *** study investigated the impact of 1.5℃ global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation *** Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5℃ *** ice is mostly less than three years old,and the younger,thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the *** above Polar Class(PC)6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the ***,the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October-December,while it is only the NSR for PC7 *** is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea,its surrounding straits,and the Parry *** changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping,and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

关键词： Arctic Sea ice Northern sea route Northwest passage global warming