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Numerical Simulation of the Mass Movement Process of the 2018 Sedongpu glacial debris flow by Using the Fluid-Solid Coupling Method

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年第2期35卷 583-596页

作者： Xing-Yu Long Yu-Xiang Hu Bin-Rui Gan Jia-Wen Zhou State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering Sichuan UniversityChengdu610065China College of Water Resource and Hydropower Sichuan UniversityChengdu610065China

In the context of global warming and intensified human activities,glacier instability in plateau regions has increased,and glacier debris flows have become active,which poses a significant threat to the lives and property of people and socioeconomic development.The mass movement process of glacier debris flows is extremely complex,so this paper uses the 2018 Sedongpu glacier debris flow event on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an example and applies a numerical simulation method to invert the whole process of mass movement.In view of the interaction between phases in the process of motion,we use the fluid-solid coupling method to describe the mass movement.The granular-flow model and drift-flux model are employed in flow3D software to study the mass movement process of glacier debris flows and explore their dynamic characteristics.The results indicate that the glacier debris flow lasted for 700 s,and the movement process was roughly divided into four stages,including initiation,scraping,surging and deposition;the depositional characteristics calculated by the fluid-solid coupling model are consistent with the actual survey results and have good reliability;strong erosion occurs during the mass movement,the clear volume amplification effect,and the first wave climbs 17.8 m across the slope.The fluid-solid coupling method can better simulate glacier debris flows in plateau regions,which is helpful for the study of the mechanism and dynamic characteristics of such disasters.

关键词： glacial debris flow Qinghai-Tibet Plateau fluid-solid coupling flow3D mass movement depositional characteristics disasters engineering geology

Risk assessment of glacial debris flow on alpine highway under climate change: A case study of Aierkuran Gully along Karakoram Highway

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第6期18卷 1458-1475页

作者： LI Ya-mei SU Li-jun ZOU Qiang WEI Xue-li Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Beijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengduSichuan 610041China China-Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences CAS-HECIslamabad 45320Pakistan University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Transportation Planning Survey and Design Institute of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Urumqi 830006China

glacial debris flows(GDFs) often occur in alpine regions that are subject to rapid climate change, and pose a serious threat to road systems. However, the ways that climate change impacts GDF risks along road systems remain poorly understood. Aierkuran Gully, located in eastern Pamir along Karakoram Highway(KKH), is a hotspot for GDF activity and climate change, and was thus selected to investigate the GDF risk to road systems under climate change conditions. Reg CM4.6 climate data for northwestern China were selected as climate projections during baseline(2011–2020) and future periods(2031–2040) under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5. To reflect the coupling effect of rainfall and melt water that triggers GDF, a glacial hydrological model DETIM that considers both factors was applied to calculate the peak debris flow discharge. A FLO-2D model was calibrated based on high-quality data collected from a detailed field investigation and historical debris flow event. The FLO-2D model was used to simulate the debris flow depth and velocity during baseline and future periods under RCP8.5. The debris flow hazard was analyzed by integrating the maximum flow depth and momentum. Road structure vulnerability was further determined based on the economic value and susceptibility of hazard-affected objects. The GDF risk along KKH was assessed based on the GDF hazard and vulnerability analysis. Our results show that climate change would lead to amplified peak debris flow discharge, trigger highermagnitude GDF, and induce more severe damage and threats to the road system. Compared with the baseline period, the debris flow damage risk for culverts and bridges would increase and the areas that inundate the road and pavement would expand. Our findings provide valuable insights for the development of mitigation strategies to adapt road systems to climate change, especially in alpine regions with highly active GDFs.

关键词： glacial debris flow Risk assessment Climate change Alpine area Karakoram Highway

Landscape change in response to multiperiod glacial debris flows in Peilong catchment,southeastern Tibet

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第3期18卷 567-582页

作者： WANG Zhang HU Kai-heng MA Chao LI Yong LIU Shuang Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes Chinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China School of soil and water conservation Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing 100083China

High-magnitude glacial debris flows in small basins in Himalayas have a significant impact on landscape.The Peilong catchment,a tributary of the Parlung Zangbo river in southeastern Tibet,was chosen as a case study of topographic response to multi-period glacial debris flows.There are few large debris flow records in the catchment before 1983,but four large-scale glacial debris flows with peak discharge up to 8195 m3/s blocked the river during 1983–1985 and in 2015.A combination of field survey,examination of historical records and interpretation of multi-period remote sensing images was used to assess triggering factors and geomorphic impact of the events.The results show that the debris flows during 1983 and 1985 may be attributed to seismic events in 1981 and 1982,while the event in 2015 resulted from large amount of landslide deposits caused by glacier retreat during 1993~2013 and high precipitation in 2015.In the upper-midstream broad valley,erosion and accumulation of the debris flows changed the channel morphology,resulting in course diversion.In the lower-midstream narrow valley,lateral erosion of debris flows induced a large number of landslides but had little impact on the channel longitudinal profile.The ability of massive glacial debris flows to change valley topography is more than ten times that of regular water flows.The landscape of the accumulation fan at the outlet of the valley is controlled by the interaction between the sediment transportation capacity of debris flows and erosional capacity of the main river.The sediment transport capacity of the Peilong river is greater than the delivery capacity of the Parlung Zangbo river,resulting in continuous aggradation of the confluence zone.

关键词： Peilong catchment glacial debris flow Landscape evolution Southeastern Tibet

Artificial Neural Network-based prediction of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin, southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2021年第1期18卷 51-67页

作者： TANG Wang DING Hai-tao CHEN Ning-sheng MA Shang-Chang LIU Li-hong WU Kang-lin TIAN Shu-feng Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu 610225China Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process Institute of Mountain Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu 610041China

Accurate prediction on geological hazards can prevent disaster events in advance and greatly reduce property losses and life casualties.glacial debris flows are the most serious hazards in southeastern Tibet in China due to their complexity in formation mechanism and the difficulty in prediction.Data collected from 102 glacier debris flow events from 31 gullies since 1970 and regional meteorological data from 1970 to 2019 in ParlungZangbo River Basin in southeastern Tibet were used for Artificial Neural Network(ANN)-based prediction of glacial debris flows.The formation mechanism of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin was systematically analyzed,and the calculations involving the meteorological data and disaster events were conducted by using the statistical methods and two layers fully connected neural networks.The occurrence probabilities and scales of glacial debris flows(small,medium,and large)were predicted,and promising results have been achieved.Through the proposed model calculations,a prediction accuracy of 78.33%was achieved for the scale of glacial debris flows in the study area.The prediction accuracy for both large-and medium-scale debris flows are higher than that for small-scale debris flows.The debris flow scale and the probability of occurrence increase with increasing rainfall and temperature.In addition,the K-fold cross-validation method was used to verify the reliability of the model.The average accuracy of the model calculated under this method is about 93.3%,which validates the proposed model.Practices have proved that the combination of ANN and disaster events can provide sound prediction on geological hazards under complex conditions.

关键词： Two layers neural networks glacial debris flow Disaster events K-fold cross-validation Rainfall Temperature

Snow disaster characteristics in Palongzangbu River Basinand mitigation countermeasures for road engineering

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2016年第2期8卷 95-102页

作者： ShuSu Duan LingKan Yao XiaoDan Sun Qiang Cai School of Civil Engineering Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChengduSichuan 610031China Road and Railway Engineering Research Institute Sichuan Key Laboratory of Seismic Engineering and TechnologyChengduSichuan 610031China MOE Key Laboratory of High-speed Railway Engineering ChengduSichuan 610031China

The Palongzangbu River Basin contains the highest number of maritime province glaciers in China. There are 130 glacial lakes, 64 snow avalanche sites and 28 glacial debris flow gullies distributed within the basin. Snow disasters play a controlling role in the Sichuan-Tibet Highway construction, due to the terrain’s special characteristics of high altitude and large height differential. Segmentation mitigation countermeasures for the Sichuan-Tibet Highway are presented based on snow disaster severity level and damage mode of the road. In the Ranwu to Midui section, snow avalanches are regional disasters, so the line should be placed in sunny slopes. In the Midui Gully to Yupu section, the line should be placed in shady slopes and at higher elevations to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst. In the Yupu to Guxiang section, all three snow disasters are minimal. In the Guxiang to Tongmai section, glacier debris flows are the major threat, thus the road should be placed in shady slopes.

关键词： Palongzangbu River Basin glacial lake outburst snow avalanche glacial debris flow line engineering