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Science Bulletin 2024年第8期69卷 1153-1160页

作者：王海鹏陈建徽仇梦晗史志林张盛达董广辉马帅艾涛任冠陈发虎 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Institute of Dunhuang Studies School of History&CultureLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China School of Geography and Remote Sensing Guangzhou UniversityGuangzhou 510000China Xinjiang Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology Ürümqi 830011China Archaeology of Northern Ethnicity Institute Renmin University of ChinaBeijing 100872China ALPHA State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and ResourcesInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Although climate change has convincingly been linked to the evolution of human civilization on different temporal scales,its role in influencing the spatial patterns of ancient civilizations has rarely been investigated,The northward shift of the ancient Silk Road(SR)route from the Tarim Basin(TB)to the Junggar Basin during~420-850 CE provides the opportunity to investigate the relationship between climate change and the spatial evolution of human societies.Here,we use a new high-resolution chironomidbased temperature reconstruction from arid China,combined with hydroclimatic and historical datasets,to assess the possible effects of climate fluctuations on the shift of the ancient SR route,We found that a cooling/drying climate in the TB triggered the SR route shift during~420-600 CE,However,a warming/wetting climate during~600-850 CE did not inhibit this shift,but instead promoted it,because of the favorable climate-induced geopolitical conflicts between the Tubo Kingdom and the Tang Dynasty in the TB.Our findings reveal two distinct ways in which climate change drove the spatial evolution of human civilization,and they demonstrate the flexibility of societal responses to climate change.

关键词： Chironomids Temperature reconstruction Water resources geopolitical conflicts

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地缘环境系统模拟研究（英文）

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2018年第7期28卷 871-880页

作者：葛全胜江东陆锋付晶莹王绍强邓祥征 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS College of Resource and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment Ministry of Land & Resource

Geographical circumstances are the fundamental background for all kinds of geopolitical events. The geopolitical environment system（GES） refers to a system that combines both physical and anthropogenic subsystems. Research on the geopolitical environment system simulation is a key to understanding the international geopolitical phenomenon. The theory of GES arose from the integration of the traditional geopolitics and earth system sciences. As an interdisciplinary system composed of many different fields, integrated reviews and a metadata study of GES are urgently needed. This paper presents a comprehensive view into the origination and advance of the GES theory. The conceptual framework of the GES is described in detail. The methodology for simulating and forecasting geopolitical events is also provided. It is proposed that the core topics of the GES science may include, but are not limited to, issues as data acquisition technologies; principles on the interactions between multiple subsystems（or factors） at different scales; evaluating and mitigating the global geopolitical risks, including the political risks, economic risks, the social risks, the environmental risks and the technological risks; and forecasting the geopolitical events with machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques.

关键词： geopolitical environment system geopolitical conflicts risk mitigation big data analysis

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