检索结果-南通市图书馆

Nonstationarities and At-site Probabilistic Forecasts of Seasonal Precipitation in the East River Basin, China

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第1期9卷 100-115页

作者： Peng Sun Qiang Zhang Xihui Gu Peijun Shi Vijay P.Singh Changqing Song Xiuyu Zhang College of Territorial Resources and Tourism Anhui Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University School of Environmental Studies China University of Geosciences Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil Engineering Texas A&M University South China Institute of Environmental Sciences

Seasonal precipitation changes under the influence of large-scale climate oscillations in the East River basin were studied using daily precipitation data at 29 rain stations during 1959–2010. Seasonal and global models were developed and evaluated for probabilistic precipitation forecasting. Generalized additive model for location,scale, and shape was used for at-site precipitation forecasting. The results indicate that:(1) winter and spring precipitation processes at most stations are nonstationary,while summer and autumn precipitation processes at few of the stations are stationary. In this sense, nonstationary precipitation processes are dominant across the studyregion;(2) the magnitude of precipitation is influenced mainly by the Arctic Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). The El Nin? o/Southern Oscillation(ENSO) also has a considerable effect on the variability of precipitation regimes across the East River basin;(3) taking the seasonal precipitation changes of the entire study period as a whole, the climate oscillations influence precipitation magnitude, and this is particularly clear for the PDO and the ENSO. The latter also impacts the dispersion of precipitation changes; and(4) the seasonal model is appropriate for modeling spring precipitation, but the global model performs better for summer, autumn, and winter precipitation.

关键词： China ENSO regimes gamlss model Nonstationarity Probabilistic precipitation forecasting

来源：

维普期刊数据库

同方期刊数据库评论

在线全文

学校读者我要写书评

暂无评论

欢迎您,

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：

通借通还

欢迎您,

建议与咨询 留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

时间限定

文献类型

馆藏选择

核心期刊

语言

文献类型

帮助

文字说明：

检索规则说明：

检索范例：

分类表

所选分类

限定检索结果

文献类型

馆藏范围

日期分布

学科分类号

主题

机构

作者

语言

在线全文

请选择保存的检索档案： 新增检索档案 确定 取消

请选择收藏分类： 新增自定义分类 确定 取消

通借通还

建议与咨询留下您的常用邮箱和电话号码，以便我们向您反馈解决方案和替代方法

请选择保存的检索档案：

请选择收藏分类：