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Numerical Analysis and Transformative Predictions of fractional order Epidemic model during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Critical Study from Bangladesh

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Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics 2021年第9期9卷 2258-2276页

作者： Ovijit Chandrow Neloy Chandra Das Niloy Chandra Shil Niloy Dey Md. Tareque Rahaman Department of Physics Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Sylhet Bangladesh Department of Mechanical Engineering Shahjalal University of Science and Technology Sylhet Bangladesh Department of Computer Science and Engineering Daffodil International University Dhaka Bangladesh Department of Textile Engineering Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University Tangail Bangladesh

The COVID-19 pandemic is a curse and a threat to global health, development, the economy, and peaceful society because of its massive transmission and high rates of mutation. More than 220 countries have been affected by COVID-19. The world is now facing a drastic situation because of this ongoing virus. Bangladesh is also dealing with this issue, and due to its dense population, it is particularly vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19. Recently, many non-linear systems have been proposed to solve the sir (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) model for predicting Coronavirus cases. In this paper, we have discussed the fractional order sir epidemic model of a non-fatal disease in a population of a constant size. Using the Laplace Adomian Decomposition method, we get an approximate solution to the model. To predict the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, we provide a numerical argument based on real data. We also conducted a comparative analysis among susceptible, infected, and recovered people. Furthermore, the most sensitive parameters for the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) are graphically presented, and the impact of the compartments on the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is thoroughly investigated.

关键词： COVID-19 Bangladesh fractional order sir model Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method BRN

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