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Deficiency of Healthcare Accessibility of Elderly People Exposed to Future Extreme Coastal floods:A Case Study of Shanghai,China

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2023年第5期14卷 840-857页

作者： Xinmeng Shan Paolo Scussolini Jun Wang Mengya Li Jiahong Wen Lei Wang Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education) East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for National Safety and Emergency Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Geographic Sciences East China Normal UniversityShanghai200241China Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam1081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands School of Public Management East China Normal UniversityShanghai200062China School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai200234China Department of Geography&Anthropology Louisiana State UniversityBaton RougeLA70803USA

Socioeconomic development,subsidence,and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities,making the vulnerable,especially elderly people,more prone to floods.However,we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future scenarios.Using Shanghai as a case,this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this gap.We integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding,local population growth,and medical resource supply-demand estimation.The results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050,in the absence of adaptation,half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods,the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand,and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by flooding.Our methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities,to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.

关键词： Coastal floods Elderly population flood exposure analysis Healthcare accessibility Shanghai

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