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Integrating VGI and 2D hydraulic models into a data assimilation framework for real time flood forecasting and mapping

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Geo-Spatial Information Science 2019年第4期22卷 223-236,I0001页

作者： Antonio Annis Fernando Nardi Water Resources Research and Documentation Centre(WARREDOC) University for Foreigners of PerugiaPerugiaItaly Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering(DICEA) University of FlorenceFlorenceItaly Institute of Water and Environment(InWE) Florida International UniversityMiamiFLUSA

Crowdsourced data can effectively observe environmental and urban ecosystem *** use of data produced by untrained people into flood forecasting models may effectively allow Early Warning Systems(EWS)to better perform while support decision-making to reduce the fatalities and economic losses due to inundation *** this work,we develop a Data Assimilation(DA)method integrating Volunteered Geographic Information(VGI)and a 2D hydraulic model and we test its *** proposed framework seeks to extend the capabilities and performances of standard DA works,based on the use of traditional in situ sensors,by assimilating VGI while managing and taking into account the uncertainties related to the quality,and the location and timing of the entire set of observational *** November 2012 flood in the Italian Tiber River basin was selected as the case *** show improvements of the model in terms of uncertainty with a significant persistence of the model updating after the integration of the VGI,even in the case of use of few-selected observations gathered from social *** will encourage further research in the use of VGI for EWS considering the exponential increase of quality and quantity of smartphone and social media user worldwide.

关键词： Crowdsourced data VGI data assimilation(DA) flood forecasting 2D hydraulic modelling

Coupling the Xinanjiang model with geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph for flood forecasting in northeast China

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2015年第1期3卷 66-76页

作者： Fanghua Hao Mingze Sun Xiaojun Geng Weijia Huang Wei Ouyangn School of Environment State Key Laboratory of Water Environment SimulationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

The Xinanjiang(XAJ)model has been successfully applied in humid and semi-humid *** the geomorphologic factors to accurately estimate floods,this study adopted the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH)method to calculate the surface runoff instead of the experience unit hydrograph(EUH)in the original *** geomorphologic factors of the case study basin were obtained by using a digital elevation model(DEM)and the Terrain analysis using Digital Elevation Models(TauDEM).Furthermore,the dynamic Muskingum model was used for the channel flood *** study focused on the simulation of heavy precipitation and floods over the Chong River,which is a tributary river to the Songhua River on the right bank in northeast *** detailed steps of the method were shown,up to the estimated value of flood runoff discharges and flood peaks and their comparison with observed *** average deterministic coefficients(DCs)of model calibration and validation were 0.89 and 0.83,*** results show that the model precision is high and the model is feasible for flood ***,some methodological perspectives to enhance the method are presented.

关键词： Hydrological model Xinanjiang(XAJ)model Geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH) Muskingum model flood forecasting

The flood forecasting ES Based on Fuzzy Set Theory

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Systems Science and Systems Engineering 1995年第3期5卷 284-289页

作者： LU Yaohua LIU chunshan(Daft. of Management Sci.Jilin Univ.Changchun,Jinlin 130023)

This article introduces briefly the development, the struCture and the running situation of a Jinlin flood disaster forecasting *** the field of meteorological phenomena,there is a lot of fuzzy phenomena,and concept posseSSing fuzziness. For this reason,we developed FBEST by fuzzy *** application of FBEST will have great significance in preventing and decreasing disaster,protecting peoples lives and property.

关键词： expert system fuzzy knowledge representation fuzzy reasoning knowledge refinement flood forecasting

flood forecasting and Warning System: A Survey of Models and Their Applications in West Africa

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American Journal of Climate Change 2023年第1期12卷 1-20页

作者： Mohamed Fofana Julien Adounkpe Sam-Quarco Dotse Hamadoun Bokar Andrew Manoba Limantol Jean Hounkpe Isaac Larbi Adama Toure Graduate Research Program on Climate Change and Water Resources West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Department of Applied Hydrology University of Abomey-Calavi Cotonou Abomey-Calavi Benin National Water Institute University of Abomey Calavi Abomey Calavi Atlantic Benin School of Sustainable Development University of Environmental and Sustainable Development Somanya Ghana National Engineer School ENI-ABT Bamako Mali

flood events occurrences and frequencies in the world are of immense worry for the stability of the economy and life safety. Africa continent is the third continent the most negatively affected by the flood events after Asia and Europe. Eastern Africa is the most hit in Africa. However, Africa continent is at the early stage in term of flood forecasting models development and implementation. Very few hydrological models for flood forecasting are available and implemented in Africa for the flood mitigation. And for the majority of the cases, they need to be improved because of the time evolution. Flash flood in Bamako (Mali) has been putting both human life and the economy in jeopardy. Studying this phenomenon, as to propose applicable solutions for its alleviation in Bamako is a great concern. Therefore, it is of upmost importance to know the existing scientific works related to this situation in Mali and elsewhere. The main aim was to point out the various solutions implemented by various local and international institutions, in order to fight against the flood events. Two types of methods are used for the flood events adaptation: the structural and non-structural methods. The structural methods are essentially based on the implementation of the structures like the dams, dykes, levees, etc. The problem of these methods is that they may reduce the volume of water that will inundate the area but are not efficient for the prediction of the coming floods and cannot alert the population with any lead time in advance. The non-structural methods are the one allowing to perform the prediction with acceptable lead time. They used the hydrological rainfall-runoff models and are the widely methods used for the flood adaptation. This review is more accentuated on the various types non-structural methods and their application in African countries in general and West African countries in particular with their strengths and weaknesses. Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (H

关键词： flood forecasting Hydrological Models Climate Change West

APPLICATION OF THE TRRL flood ESTIMATION MODEL IN HYDROLOGICAL forecasting FOR CATCHMENTS WITH LIMITED DATA-A CASE STUDY

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International Journal of Sediment Research 1998年第4期 74-84页

作者： OTIENO,F.A.O 1 and KIBATA,N. 2

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关键词： flood forecasting Environmental hydrology Catchment studies Rational method Conceptual flood modelling

Ensemble flood predictions for River Thames under climate change

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National Science Open 2024年第1期3卷 28-48页

作者： Yurui Fan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Brunel University LondonMiddlesex UB83PHUK

In this study,a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)-based ensemble modeling system is proposed to project future flood occurrences for the River Thames using downscaled high-resolution climate projections from the latest general circulation models(GCMs)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The BMA-based ensemble modeling system integrates multiple hydrological models into the BMA framework to enhance the accuracy of hydrological forecasting,which has shown good performance in validation with the NSE higher 0.91,KGE approaching 0.80,and correlation coefficient higher than *** projections of precipitation and temperature under all four shared socioeconomic pathways were obtained from three GCM models and were further employed to project future potential *** BMA-based ensemble modeling system was then used to forecast annual maximum flood rates and associated 3-day maximum flood volumes in the *** results show that the three GCM models exhibit considerable differences in terms of future flood projections,but all indicate a general increase in flood occurrence and magnitude under future climate change *** future daily flood events under different climate scenarios are likely to become more severe,as indicated by higher mean,maximum,and 90th quantile values of the AMAX flood ***,the corresponding 3-day flood volumes show varying patterns in terms of mean and extreme flood volumes under different scenarios,but we would have more chances to experience severe 3-day flood volumes in *** results of our study can provide important information for flood risk management and adaptation planning in the River Thames basin.

关键词： flood forecasting climate change CMIP6 River Thames

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第12期38卷 2212-2220,I0013页

作者： Philip E.BETT Gill M.MARTIN Nick DUNSTONE Adam A.SCAIFE Hazel E.THORNTON Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterEX44QFUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June,May–June–July(MJJ),and June–July–August(JJA)2020 are presented,based on the Met Office GloSea5 *** three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)index,which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear *** June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of *** forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong,consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three ***,the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period,leading to observed values that lie outside the 95%prediction intervals of the three-month *** forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall,whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast,but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not *** case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian Summer Monsoon

Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第11期40卷 2082-2091页

作者： Philip E.BETT Nick DUNSTONE Nicola GOLDING Doug SMITH Chaofan LI Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy RoadExeter EX13PBUK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin,with potentially devastating *** forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers,supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern *** paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the preceding November,and that this allows skilful forecasts of summer mean rainfall in the Yangtze River basin at a lead time of six *** skill for May–June–July rainfall is of a similar magnitude to seasonal forecasts initialised in spring,although the skill in June–July–August is much weaker and not consistently ***,there is some evidence for enhanced skill following El Niño *** potential for decadal-scale variability in forecast skill is also examined,although we find no evidence for significant variation.

关键词： seasonal forecasting interannual forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall East Asian summer monsoon

Seasonal Forecasts of the Summer 2016 Yangtze River Basin Rainfall

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2018年第8期35卷 22-30页

作者： Philip E. BETT Adam A. SCAIFE Chaofan LI Chris HEWITT Nicola GOLDING Peiqun ZHANG Nick DUNSTONE Doug M. SMITH Hazel E. THORNTON Riyu LU Hong-Li REN Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB UK College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences University of Exeter Exeter Devon EX4 4QF UK Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100029 China

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from E1 Nifio to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong E1 Nifio in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements.

关键词： seasonal forecasting flood forecasting Yangtze basin rainfall ENSO hydroelectricity