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Analysis and identification of the hidden relationships between effective factors in the mortality rate caused by road accidents: A case study of Fars Province, Iran

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2019年第4期22卷 233-239页

作者： Saeed Lotfi Ali Reza Honarvar Saeid Gholamzadeh Department of Information Technology and Computer Engineering Safashahr Branch Islamic Azad University Safashahr Iran Legal Medicine Research Center Legal Medicine Organization Tehran Iran

Purpose: An analysis and identification of the hidden relationships between effective factors in the mortality rate caused by road accidents in Fars Province of Iran to prevent and reduce traffic accidents in the future. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted to integrate all the pervious researches performed on mortality rate of road traffic accidents in Fars Province from March 21,2013 to March 20,2017. In order to reveal the relationships between the factors affecting mortality rates of road traffic accidents, the data regarding road traffic accidents extracted from resources such as Legal Medicine Organization, Traffic Police, Accident & Emergency Department, as well as Department of Roads and Urban Development of Fars Province, then cleaned and the applicable attributes embedded in the data all aggregated for further analysis. It should be noted that the data not related to Fars Province were deleted, the data analyzed, converted and the aggregation between various attributes identified. The aggregation between these different attributes as well as the FP-growth algorithm and two indexes of support and confidence calculated and interesting and effective rules extracted. In the end, several accident-p「ovoking factors, the degree of consecutive and interdepende nee of each one in road accide nts identified and in traduced. The statistical analysis was conducted by using Rapid Miner software. Results: Of the 6216 people dead due to road traffic accidents, 4865 (79.02%) were male and 1292 (20.98%) were female, 59 of them have no clear gender. The largest portion of people died of road traffic accidents belonged to married and self-employed men who collided with motorcycles in autumn. Moreover, young individuals (aged 19-40 years) w让h secondary educational level who died of accidents in summer at 12:00 a.m. and then 5:00 p.m. in outer city main roads of Kazerun-Shiraz, then Darab- Shiraz, Fasa-Darab and in within-city main streets had the highest mortality rates. Among women, the middle-aged group (age

关键词： Road traffic accidents Mortality Vehicle Fars province Iran

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Determining endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iranian Fars province by retrospectively detected clusters and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2019年第9期9卷 359-364页

作者： Marjan Zare Abbas Rezaianzadeh Hamidreza Tabatabaee Hossain Faramarzi Mohsen Aliakbarpour Mostafa Ebrahimi Department of Epidemiology School of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Colorectal Research Center Shiraz University of Medical ScienceShirazIran Research Center for Health Sciences Shiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Department of Community Medicine Medical SchoolShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran Department of Communicable Diseases Shiraz University of Medical ScienceShirazIran

Objective: To determine the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in different cities of Fars province, Iran. Methods: Totally, 29 201 cases registered from 2010 to 2015 in Iranian Fars province were selected, and the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis were determined by retrospective clusters derived from spatiotemporal permutation modeling on a time-series design. The accuracy of the values was assessed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve. SPSS version 22, Arc GIS, and ITSM 2002 software tools were used for analysis. Results: Nine statistically significant retrospective clusters(P<0.05) resulted in finding seven significant and accurate endemic values(P<0.1). These valid endemic scores were generalized to the other 18 cities based on 6 different climates in the province. Conclusions: Retrospectively detected clusters with the help of ROC curve analysis could help determine cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic values which are essential for future prediction and prevention policies in the area.

关键词： Cutaneous leishmaniasis Retrospective clusters Receiver operating characteristic curve Endemic values Fars province

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Does prospective permutation scan statistics work well with cutaneous leishmaniais as a high-frequency or malaria as a low-frequency infection in Fars province, Iran?

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2018年第10期8卷 478-484页

作者： Abbas Rezaianzadeh Marjan Zare Hamidreza Tabatabaee Mohsen Ali-Akbarpour Hossain Faramarzi Mostafa Ebrahimi Colorectal Research Center Shiraz University of Medical Science Department of Epidemiology School of HealthShiraz University of Medical Sciences Research Center for Health Sciences.Shiraz University of Medical Sciences Department of Community Medicine Medical SchoolShiraz University of Medical Sciences Department of Communicable Diseases Shiraz university of Medical Science

Objective: To determine whether permutation scan statistics was more efficient in finding prospective spatial-temporal outbreaks for cutaneous leishmaniasis(CL) or for malaria in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Using time-series data including 29 177 CL cases recorded during 2010-2015 and 357 malaria cases recorded during 2010-2015, CL and malaria cases were predicted in 2016. Predicted cases were used to verify if they followed uniform distribution over time and space using space-time analysis. To testify the uniformity of distributions, permutation scan statistics was applied prospectively to detect statistically significant and non-significant outbreaks. Finally, the findings were compared to determine whether permutation scan statistics worked better for CL or for malaria in the area. Prospective permutation scan modeling was performed using SatScan software. Results: A total of 5 359 CL and 23 malaria cases were predicted in 2016 using time-series models. Applied timeseries models were well-fitted regarding auto correlation function, partial auto correlation function sample/model, and residual analysis criteria(Pv was set to 0.1). The results indicated two significant prospective spatial-temporal outbreaks for CL(P0.5) in the area. Conclusions: Both CL and malaria follow a space-time trend in the area, but prospective permutation scan modeling works better for detecting CL spatial-temporal outbreaks. It is not far away from expectation since clusters are defined as accumulation of cases in specified times and places. Although this method seems to work better with finding the outbreaks of a high-frequency disease; i.e., CL, it is able to find non-significant outbreaks. This is clinically important for both high-and low-frequency infections; i.e., CL and malaria.

关键词： Cutaneous leishmaniais Malaria Prospective permutation scan statistics Fars province Iran

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基于Fars的致死性交通事故数据库的构建及应用

基于FARS的致死性交通事故数据库的构建及应用

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作者：杨举中国人民解放军陆军军医大学

学位级别：硕士

针对交通事故深度调查,我国基于德国事故深度调查（Germany In-Depth Accident Study,GIDAS）系统分别于2011年建立了中国交通事故深入研究（China In-Depth Accident Study,CIDAS）和2012年建立了国家车辆事故深度调查体系（National A... 详细信息

针对交通事故深度调查,我国基于德国事故深度调查（Germany In-Depth Accident Study,GIDAS）系统分别于2011年建立了中国交通事故深入研究（China In-Depth Accident Study,CIDAS）和2012年建立了国家车辆事故深度调查体系（National Automobile Accident In-Depth Investigation System,NAIS）。但这两个数据库主要从车辆角度出发,致力于发现汽车缺陷而忽略了行人等因素,其数据元素也较为复杂且没有专门针对致死性交通事故。我国致死性交通事故基数大但其相关研究较少,直接借用其他国家的数据参考价值较低,因此本研究在美国交通事故数据库致死性分析报告系统（Fatality Analysis Reporting System,Fars）基础上探索我国致死性事故数据库的建立及其应用展示。对Fars进行如下处理从而快速搭建起数据库架构:首先简化Fars的数据关系,只保留事故、车辆、人员三个数据文件,其余数据文件根据其描述对象归于这三个文件中;然后将所得的三个新数据文件中数据通过沿用、增加、删除、修改等方式填入事故、车辆和人员三张表中。基于这三张表,增加Fars中不具备但有实际研究价值的交通伤和交通事故事故现场图等信息;删除Fars中重复的、已终止记录的、国内空缺较多的数据元素;将不符合我国交通事故的数据信息修改、转换从而符合要求。最终得到的事故、车辆及人员表即为新建数据库数据表单,每个表单包含在各自同名的数据文件中。所建数据库包含的数据表单为:事故表单、车辆表单和人员表单。事故表单录入的内容为自然环境信息、道路信息、事故总体信息等,对应多个车辆数据表;车辆表单记录车辆本身信息、事故前驾驶员信息、车辆操作信息及事故后车辆信息等内容,对应多个人员信息表;人员信息表记录所有乘员的信息,包括人员基础信息、事故时人员状态、人员伤情等信息,所有非机动人员都是“车辆0”的乘员。利用Python+Django建立起网页形式的数据库框架,在PyCharm上实现并运行了该数据库,参照Fars致死性交通事故定义录入了2009至2017年我国死亡10人以上的重大交通事故171例和2012年至2016年我国致死性交通事故355例。至此已经初步建立了符合中国国情的致死性交通事故数据录入系统,为后续数据库应用研究做铺垫。从数据库中筛选出信息完整的重大交通事故158例,利用神经网络模型探索了交通事故现场信息与车辆乘员伤亡率的关系。按照事故发生的时间顺序,前120例案例为训练集,后38例案例为测试集,且对该神经网络模型进行连续调试,最终得到一个精度为0.8158的神经网络模型。考虑到数据体量和数据信息的限制,认为该模型所得结果有可信度,可以迅速评估事故发生后的车辆乘员的损伤状况。从数据库中筛选出199例重庆市致死性行人交通事故与美国Fars中致死性行人交通事故对比分析,发现中美两国行人事故在结构和比例上都有差异。利用Logistic回归进一步建模分析,分别得到两国行人在年龄、光照和车辆类型的条件下承受致死性损伤的风险。美国行人风险最高的情况是日光条件、儿童青少年以及摩托车车型;中国行人发生致死性交通事故的风险最高的是黎明时分、中老年人及面包车车型。因此我国在借鉴国外的数据和经验时应当考虑这些差异。本研究基于Fars尝试开发了我国的致死性交通事故数据库,经测试运行良好,符合我国交通事故特征;截至目前在该数据库中共录入526例数据,初步实现了车辆乘员损伤和行人安全的评估,证明了以数据库形式来研究致死性交通事故的可行性,对我国交通事故深度调查、制定各项规章制度等有借鉴意义。

关键词：致死性交通事故数据库 Fars Django 数据分析

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基于防御性驾驶行为的死亡交通事故影响因素分析

基于防御性驾驶行为的死亡交通事故影响因素分析

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作者：李清苹北京交通大学

学位级别：硕士

本研究从防御性驾驶行为的角度着手,探索相关自变量如何影响驾驶员防御性驾驶行为。确定了本研究的四个关键内容:防御性驾驶行为、参数模型与非参数模型相结合、半参数可加回归模型、自变量之间的交互作用。旨在分析道路交通事故发生前... 详细信息

本研究从防御性驾驶行为的角度着手,探索相关自变量如何影响驾驶员防御性驾驶行为。确定了本研究的四个关键内容:防御性驾驶行为、参数模型与非参数模型相结合、半参数可加回归模型、自变量之间的交互作用。旨在分析道路交通事故发生前,驾驶员是否能及时发现潜在的风险因素并主动采取有效的回避措施,从而降低交通事故的严重程度,减少交通事故带来的人员伤亡和财产损失。目前,虽然防御性驾驶技术在多个领域得到应用,但国内外对于防御性驾驶行为的研究较少,基于交通事故数据的防御性驾驶行为研究则更少。本文以美国国家公路安全管理局(NHTSA)整理记录的2017年Fars交通事故数据作为研究内容,通过大量阅读相关文献,确定了本文的研究方向和相关研究变量,研究中以驾驶员是否采取回避措施作为防御性驾驶行为的表征变量。利用多种统计模型,分析了死亡交通事故中驾驶员防御性驾驶行为与年龄、性别、行驶速度等八个自变量之间的联系,详细分析了显著影响变量与因变量驾驶员是否采取回避措施之间的影响情况,包括自变量的单独效应分析和自变量间的交互效应分析。首先,采用二元logistic回归参数模型和CART决策树非参数模型,对八个自变量与因变量(在事故发生前驾驶员是否手动采取回避措施)的影响程度进行排序,综合两种模型求解结果,得出对因变量影响最大的自变量为行驶速度,其次为事故发生时间和年龄两个自变量。在半参数可加回归模型中,利用单独效应分析和交互效应分析,以行驶速度作为主要变量,事故发生时间和年龄两个变量作为协变量,分析了车辆行驶速度与驾驶员是否采取回避措施的内在联系,将协变量代入模型,研究当自变量之间存在交互作用时,行驶速度与因变量之间的联系是否存在差异。研究结果表明,在单独效应分析中,当驾驶员所处的行驶速度阶段不同时,采取回避措施的可能性也存在着较大差异,在行驶速度小于60km/h时,驾驶员所处的速度阶段的增加,会使得驾驶员采取回避措施的可能性大大提高;当行驶速度小于140km/h时,驾驶员采取回避措施的可能性以增速不断减小的状态逐渐增大;速度超过140km/h这个平衡点之后,即使保持高度警惕也没有足够的反应时间来做出回避措施。而在交互效应分析中,因为协变量的加入,导致行驶速度与因变量之间的曲线产生了变化,也说明自变量之间的交互作用会对结果产生影响,结果表明,控制行驶速度一致时,晚上行车、少年驾驶员和老年驾驶员三个层面中,驾驶员防御性驾驶意识整体较为薄弱。

关键词：防御性驾驶行为 Fars 二元logistic回归决策树半参数可加回归

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Evaluation of Hydrocarbon Potential in the Jahrom Area, Interior Fars, Zagros

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Open Journal of Geology 2017年第3期7卷 429-442页

作者： Mehdi Hosseinpour Zahra Maleki Mohsen Aleali Department of Petroleum Engineering Science and Research Branch Islamic Azad University Tehran Iran Department of Geology Science and Research Branch Islamic Azad University Tehran Iran

The study area is located in the Fars area (Interior Fars sub-basin). This area, which is part of the Zagros fold-thrust belt, is located in Zagros simple folded sub zone. It is known as one of the most important regions in the world Gas rich. In this area, anticlinal folds are a different orientation of such as the North Western-South Eastern, East-West and North Eastern-South Western. The Karbasi and Khaftar anticlines are case study anticlines in the interior Fars sub-basin (Fassa area). The anticlines in the Fars region, which are located in the Zagros fold-thrust belt, are valuable because they possess several hydrocarbons. The main aim of this paper is evaluation of hydrocarbon potential in the Jahrom area (Interior Fars) based on interpretation of the Isopach maps and well data. This paper presents part of the results of a regional study of the Coastal Fars area in the Zagros Simply folded belt, based on original fieldwork, satellite images, structural sections, geological maps and well data. In order to investigate of periods Nezamabad fault activity, Isopach maps of the study area has been prepared based on well drilling data and the thickness of the drilled formations. In this study utilizes the thickness of the drilled formations in the study area, for each sedimentary unit was carried out to prepare Isopach maps. The Isopach map prepared based on GIS software method and exploration well data. The Nezamabad fault has been lacked of activity at the deposition time of the Dalan, Kangan, Dashtak, Fahliyan, Gadvan, Dariyan, Kazhdomi, Sarvak, Gurpi and Pabdeh formations within the Khaftar and Karbasi anticline area. Accordingly, changes in basin floor, at the time of sedimentation these formations has not been affected by the Nezamabad fault. Probably the Nezamabad fault has been activated during deposition of the Surmeh, Hith, Laffan and Ilam formations and in this area paleo-basin has been controlled by this fault. In other words, it seems that, activity of the Nezamabad fault in this area have been limit

关键词： Hydrocarbon Potential Jahrom Area Nezamabad Fault Interior Fars Zagros

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财务会计报告系统（Fars）专题

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安徽农村金融 2004年第9期 55-56页

用户日常操作需要用到的菜单包括环境维护、用户管理、报表管理、综合查询、日志查看、密码修改等以及上述选项的子菜单。这些菜单选项有的只能由用户管理员或一般操作员使用。下面对用户常用的菜单使用作逐一说明，对于省分行专用菜单... 详细信息

用户日常操作需要用到的菜单包括环境维护、用户管理、报表管理、综合查询、日志查看、密码修改等以及上述选项的子菜单。这些菜单选项有的只能由用户管理员或一般操作员使用。下面对用户常用的菜单使用作逐一说明，对于省分行专用菜单不作介绍。

关键词：财务会计报告系统 Fars 用户管理财务报表管理查询功能

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Sedimentary Environments and Correlative Sequence Stratigraphy of Upper Cretaceous—Paleogene Succession in Shiraz Area, Fars, SW IRAN

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Open Journal of Geology 2014年第1期4卷 1-17页

作者： Mirzaee Mahmoodabadi Reza Department of Geology Estahban Branch Islamic Azad University Estahban Iran

Sequence stratigraphic evidences have been used in this research to investigate the stratigraphic correlation of cretaceous paleogene succession in Shiraz area, Fars, SW Iran. For this purpose, 4 stratigraphic sections have been chosen and provided. According to petrographic study and field evidences, 4 depositional sequences were identified including the Tarbur, Sachun and Jahrum formations in the east and the Gurpi, Pabadeh and Asmari formations in the west of study area. After identifying the boundaries and systems tract facies, it has been found that the mentioned formations have been deposited among the continuous/discontinuous boundaries in an equivalent manner. In this case, the purple shale (between the Gurpi and Pabdeh formations) could be considered equivalent to the upper part of the Sachun formation. From the point of Paleogeography, the plat-form sedimentary environment covered almost the whole area during the Oligo-Miocene age, so that the Asmari formation would have been deposited, which is marked by sharp contact as disconformity on Jahrum formation in the east of the basin and with continuous contact (C.C) on the Pabdeh formation in the west and southwest.

关键词： Iran Fars Shiraz Sedimentary Environment Sequence Stratigraphy Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary

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Road Traffic Crash Data: An Overview on Sources, Problems, and Collection Methods

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Journal of Transportation Technologies 2017年第2期7卷 206-219页

作者： Azad Abdulhafedh University of Missouri-Columbia MO USA

Road traffic crash data are useful tools to support the development, implementation, and assessment of highway safety programs that tend to reduce road traffic crashes. Collecting road traffic crash data aims at gaining a better understanding of road traffic operational problems, locating hazardous road sections, identifying risk factors, developing accurate diagnosis and remedial measures, and evaluating the effectiveness of road safety programs. Furthermore, they can be used by many agencies and businesses such as: law enforcements to identify persons at fault in road traffic crashes;insurers seeking facts about traffic crash claims;road safety researchers to access traffic crash reliable database;decision makers to develop long-term, statewide strategic plans for traffic and highway safety;and highway safety administrators to help educate the public. Given the practical importance of vehicle crash data, this paper presents an overview of the sources, trends and problems associated with road traffic crash data.

关键词： Road Safety Vehicle Crash Data Over-Dispersion Under-Dispersion Under-Reporting Fars NASS HSIS

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Morphotectonic Analysis of Burkh Anticline, North of Bastak (Zagros)

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Open Journal of Geology 2015年第6期5卷 387-393页

作者： Mohammad Khalaj Faculty of Science Department of Geology Payame Noor University Tehran Iran

Burkh Anticline having a length of 50 km and a width of 9 km is located 40 km to the north of Bastak City in Internal Fars zone along folded-thrust belt of Zagros. In order to assess the active tectonics in the area of study, morphotectonical indices such as valley index (V), ratio of valley floor to valley height (Vf), channel sinuosity index (S), mountain front faceting index (F%) and mountain front sinuosity(Smf) are studied. These investigations show that the activity is not equal in various sections along Burkh Anticline and the central part of this anticline is the most active one.

关键词： Anticline Internal Fars Zone Tectonics Morphotectonic Indices Folded-Trusted Belt

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