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Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 124-133页

作者： Jie LIU Xiang-Zhen SHI Li YANG Chang-Yi LIU Jin-Cheng WANG Rui-Min ZHU Xue-Li SHI Qiu-Feng LIU International Business School Shanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710062China University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Bejing 102488China School of Economics and Management Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization(GEIDCO) Bejing 100031China Hubei Enshi College Enshi 445099China CMA Earth System modeling and Prediction Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China National Climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and *** study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and fund sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs *** a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate *** findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature *** 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,***,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market *** a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

关键词： Climate loss and damage Integrated assessment model(IAM) fund model Representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenario BCC-SESM

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