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Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 3-9页

作者： Yuanhai Fu Xuejie Gao Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina

extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural *** this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,*** model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 *** modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall ***4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of *** the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern *** the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the *** S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the ***,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central *** increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the *** projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.

关键词： extreme snowfall Regional climate model Tibetan plateau Climate change

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