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Future Changes in extreme high temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第2期38卷 253-267页

作者： Guwei ZHANG Gang ZENG Xiaoye YANG Zhihong JIANG Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education(KLME) Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate *** on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and *** SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after *** China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the ***,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global *** to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern *** example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global *** to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.

关键词： extreme high temperature China CMIP6 1.5℃-5℃global warming

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Trends in extreme high temperature at different altitudes of Southwest China during 1961–2014

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2020年第5期13卷 417-425页

作者： XUE Yuting CHEN Quanliang ZHANG Jiayu HUANG Ping College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina Center for Monsoon System Research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Earth System Modeling Center and Climate Dynamics Research Center Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

This study analyzed the trends in extreme high temperature in Southwest China based on the observed daily maximum temperature and average temperature data from 410 Chinese stations recently released by the China Meteorological *** authors found that the trends in extreme high temperature at different altitudes of Southwest China exhibit staged variations during a recent 50-year period(1961–2014).The trends in mean temperature and maximum temperature also exhibit phase *** temperature-related variables increase gently during the period 1975–94,whereas they increase dramatically during the recent period of 1995–2014,with a rate that is approximately two to ten times more than that during 1975–*** addition,the trends in mean temperature,maximum temperature,and the frequency of extreme high temperature in the low altitudes transit from negative to positive in the two periods,while they increase dramatically in the mid-and high-altitude areas during 1995–2014,the well-known global warming hiatus *** particular,the maximum temperature increases much faster than that of average *** result implies that the regional temperature trend could be apparently different from the global mean temperature change.

关键词： Southwest China extreme high temperature trend change altitude

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Temporal and Spatial Variation of Summer extreme high temperature in Guizhou Province from 1970 to 2020

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2023年第11期11卷 62-72页

作者： Shiyi Gu Hongxia Shi Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology Chengdu China

Based on the daily maximum temperature data of 31 meteorological observation stations and some statistical methods, the temporal and spatial characteristics of summer extreme high temperature in Guizhou province from 1970 to 2020 are analyzed. The results indicate that: 1) The threshold of extreme high temperature (EHT) in summer in Guizhou province had a large spatial difference, with decreasing characteristics from the northeast to the southwest, it was negatively correlated with the altitude. 2) In most parts of Guizhou province, the extreme high temperature days (EHTD) in summer can reach about 4.2 d, the lowest EHTD occurred in the southernmost part. From June to August, the EHTD gradually increased, especially in Central and eastern parts of Guizhou province. However, the extreme high temperature intensity (EHTI) displayed similar distribution characteristics in summer, June, July and August, with larger value in the northeast part and lower value in the southwest part of Guizhou. 3) EHTD had a rising trend in almost stations, except for the PZ station, the increased range and intensity gradually increased from June to August. But the EHTI had a larger spatial difference, especially in June, it declined in most parts of Guizhou, the declined scope and intensity gradually decreased in July, and completely increased in August, this made EHTI show an increasing trend in summer in most parts the Guizhou province. 4) The averaged EHTD increased by 0.62 d/10a (p 0.1), the significant increase also occurred in August, but it increased insignificantly in June and July. The averaged EHTI had insignificant increase in summer and the three months. In general, the EHTD and EHTI increased in most parts of Guizhou province during the period of 1970-2020, this may be related to the changes of them in August.

关键词： Guizhou extreme high temperature Temporal and Spatial Variation

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Short communication:extreme glacier mass loss triggered by high temperature and drought during hydrological year 2022/2023 in Qilian Mountains

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Research in Cold and Arid Regions 2024年第1期16卷 1-4页

作者： JiZu Chen XingYu Xue WenTao Du State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)LanzhouGansu 730000China Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Intelligent Equipment and Big Data for Disaster Prevention Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of Science(CAS)LanzhouGansu 730000China Zhangye Meteorological Bureau ZhangyeGansu 734000China College of Resources and Environment University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(UCAS)Beijing 100049China

In the hydrological year 2022/2023,the glaciers in the Qilian Mountains experienced unprecedented mass *** glacier-wide mass balance was-1,188 mm w.e.,in contrast to-350 mm of average mass balance since 1990 over the Bailanghe Glacier No.12 in the middle of Qilian *** temperature during 2022–2023 reached the highest value ever recorded,second only to 2022,while at the same time the precipitation amount was less compared to other year since 2000,which together led to the strongest glacier mass loss during 2022–*** atmospheric circulation analysis shows that the high temperature in the Qilian Mountains in 2023 was jointly caused by the Arctic air mass and East Asian monsoon.

关键词： Bailanghe Glacier No.21 Glacier mass loss extreme high temperature Atmospheric circulation

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An unprecedented high temperature event in southern China in autumn 2021 and the essential role of the mid-latitude trough

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第6期13卷 772-777页

作者： Ting DING Xiang LI Hui GAO Climate Studies Key Laboratory National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

Studies about high temperatures in China rarely touched the period beyond *** in September-early October 2021,a record-breaking high temperature event occurred in southern China,and affected agriculture in many *** the daily maximum temperature and the number of high temperature days were the highest in September since *** better understand the different features and possible causes of the extreme event in autumn from those in summer,the analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns was *** western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)was quite stronger and extended much more westward in most of the days in September 2021 than its climatology,which directly caused this unprecedented autumn high temperature ***,the mid-latitude trough over the east of Japan may also play an essential role in this high temperature *** to the southward extension of the trough,a cyclonic circulation anomaly appeared at 850 hPa,and its northerly wind component prevailed in the west of the trough and blocked the eastward retreat of the *** a result,southern China was stably controlled by the WPSH,which led to the persistence of this high temperature *** conclusion is further confirmed by the statistical results from the analysis of the multi-year data and analogue *** to the previous studies,this study reveals the essential role of the mid-latitude trough and highlights the joint impacts of the WPSH and the trough in causing the unprecedented autumn high temperature event.

关键词： extreme high temperature Western Pacific subtropical high Mid-latitude trough Southern China

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Climate state of the Three Gorges Region in the Yangtze River basin in 2022–2023

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 61-66页

作者： Tong Cui Xianyan Chen Xukai Zou Linhai Sun Qiang Zhang Hongling Zeng National Climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijingChina

Based on daily observation data of the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River basin and global reanalysis data,the climate characteristics,climate events,and meteorological disasters of the TGR in 2022 and 2023 were *** the TGR,the average annual temperature for 2022 and 2023 was 0.8℃ and 0.4℃ higher than normal,respectively,making them the two warmest years in the past *** 2022,the TGR experienced its warmest summer on *** average air temperature was 2.4℃ higher than the average,and there were 24.8 days of above-average high temperature days during *** in the TGR varied significantly between 2022 and *** rainfall was 18.4%below normal and drier than normal in most parts of the *** contrast,the precipitation in 2023 was considerably higher than the long-term average,and above normal for almost the entire *** average wind speed exhibited minimal variation between the two ***,the number of foggy days and relative humidity increased in 2023 compared to *** 2022–2023,the TGR mainly experienced meteorological disasters such as extreme high temperatures,regional heavy rain and flooding,overcast rain,and inverted spring *** indicates that the abnormal western Pacific subtropical high and the abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high were the two important drivers of the durative enhancement of record-breaking high temperature in the summer of 2022.

关键词： Three Gorges Region Climate state extreme high temperature Torrential summer rainfall Climate analysis

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自然内部变率对北半球极端高温低频振荡的影响（英文）

自然内部变率对北半球极端高温低频振荡的影响（英文）

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第35届中国气象学会年会

作者： Miaoni Gao Jing Yang Daoyi Gong Peijun Shi Zhangang Han Seong-Joong Kim School of Systems Science Beijing Normal University Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE) Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Korea Polar Research Institute Division of Polar Climate Sciences

The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature（EHT） in the northern hemisphere exhibit remarkable low-frequency（LF） variations in summer over the time period 1951-2017. Seven hotspots featuring both a high occurrence of EHT and large LF variations in EHT were identified in the northern hemisphere. The probability density functions show that the higher probabilities of the occurrence of EHT over these hotspots in recent decades are consistent with the shift in the mean temperature and an increased variance in the daily mean temperature. The common features of the LF variation in EHT frequency over all domains are a remarkable increasing trend and an evident decadal variations（DV）. The DV component makes the main contribution to the large LF variations. Further analysis shows that the DV over the six hotspots are the footprints of two dominant natural internal signals: the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation（AMO） and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation（IPO）. The coherent variation in temperature over western North America-Mexico, eastern Siberia, Europe, the Mongolian Plateau and southeastern China is significantly influenced by the AMO. The AMO contributes to the variations in temperature over the first four hotspots via its associated barotropic circum-global teleconnection, which imposes a striking anomalous pressure over these regions. The IPO governs the DV in temperature over the Indo-China Peninsula through an anomalous Walker circulation driven by the IPO-associated sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency between the in situ observations and the reanalysis datasets causes the uncertainty in the physical linkage between the natural internal variability and variations in EHT over southeastern China and the Indo-China Peninsula. This implies that natural internal forcing plays an important role in making hotspots more vulnerable to EHT.

关键词： extreme high temperature Low-frequency variation Decadal variation Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation

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