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Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trend Characteristics of Agro-Climatic Resources and extreme climate events during the Soybean Growing Season in Northeast China from 1981 to 2017

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2020年第6期34卷 1309-1323页

作者： Shibo GUO Xiaoguang YANG Zhentao ZHANG Fangliang ZHANG Tao LIU College of Resources and Environmental Sciences China Agricultural UniversityBeijing 100193

Soybean is an important oil ***-climatic resources and extreme climate events during the growing season directly affect the crop growth and grain *** this study,we used historical climate data and phenology observation data to investigate the spatial distributions and temporal trends of agro-climatic resources and extreme climate events during the growing season for soybean in Northeast China(NEC).The results showed that during the soybean growing season,the thermal time increased while both the effective precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)*** the growing season,the thermal time increased by 44.0°C day decade–1 during the vegetative stage but decreased by 16.5°C day decade–1 during the reproductive stage;the effective precipitation increased by 1.8 mm decade–1 during the vegetative stage but decreased by 7.3 mm decade–1 during the reproductive stage;PAR decreased by 6.5 and 11.9 MJ m–2 decade–1 during the vegetative and reproductive *** frequency of extreme cold days showed a decreasing trend during the four study phases of sowing to emergence,sowing–flowering,15 days before flowering–flowering,and pod to physiological *** the soybean growing season,the frequency of extreme heat days and the maximum number of consecutive dry days(CDD)increased,and the maximum number of consecutive wet days(CWD)and heavy precipitation days *** results of this study could be used in selecting optimal management in soybean production in order to take advantage of beneficial climatic elements.

关键词： soybean Northeast China(NEC) agro-climatic resources extreme climate events asymmetry

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Changes in Climatic Factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961-2010

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Advances in climate Change Research 2013年第2期4卷 92-102页

作者： ZHAO Chun-Yu WANG Ying ZHOU Xiao-Yu CUI Yan LIU Yu-Lian SHI Da-Ming YU Hong-Min LIU Yu-Ying Regional climate Center of Shenyang Liaoning Meteorological Service climate Center of Heilongjiang Heilongjiang Meteorological Service climate Center of Jilin Jilin Meteorological Service

This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.

关键词： climatic factors extreme climate events climate change Northeast China

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Effects of Urbanization on extreme Warmest Night Temperatures During Summer near Bohai

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2013年第6期27卷 808-818页

作者：李庆祥黄嘉佑 National Meteorological Information Center Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University

Many previous studies have focused on the impacts of urbanization on regional mean temperatures. Relatively few have analyzed changes in extreme temperatures. Here, we examine the impact of urbanization on extreme warmest night temperatures from 33 stations in the Bohai area between 1958 and 2009. We compute the Generalized extreme Value（GEV） distribution of extreme warmest night temperatures and analyze long-term variations in its characteristic parameters. A new classification method based on the factor analysis of changes in extreme night temperatures is developed to detect the efects of urbanization in diferent cities. Of the three parameters that characterize the GEV distribution, the position parameter is the most representative of long-term changes in extreme warmest night temperatures. During the period of rapid urbanization（i.e., after 1978）, all three parameters of the GEV distribution are larger for the urban station group than for the reference station group, so are the magnitudes of their variations, and the urban areas have been experiencing higher extreme warmest night temperatures with larger variability. Diferent types of cities in the Bohai area have all experienced an urban heat island efect, with an average urbanization efect of approximately 0.3 per decade.

关键词： extreme climate events extreme warmest night GEV distribution urbanization efect

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Can the desiccation of forests in Tara National Park (Serbia) be attributed to the effects of a drought period?

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第6期35卷 220-229页

作者： GoranČešljar NevenaČule IlijaĐorđević Saša Eremija Natalija Momirović Marko Tomić Filip Jovanović Institute of Forestry Kneza Višeslava 3Belgrade 11030Serbia Tara National Park Milenka Topalovića 3Bajina Bašta 31250Serbia

Forest ecosystems within national parks are threatened by various biotic and abiotic *** deter-mine the causes of the desiccation and death of trees in mixed coniferous and deciduous forests of Tara National Park(TNP),Serbia,we monitored defoliation and mortality of individual trees in permanent experimental *** on the desiccation of a large number of trees were gathered by determining the total volume of dry trees and areas of forests under drying *** two sets of data were combined to determine the impact of climatic events,primarily drought periods,on the desiccation of *** data from the International Co-operative Program on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests(ICP Forests)with TNP data helped relate forest desiccation to climate *** climate signals were identified by monitoring tree defoliation changes in two permanent experimental plots,and then assessed for their influence on tree desicca-tion in the entire national *** standardized precipita-tion evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was used for a more detailed analysis of the drought *** the lack of climate data for a certain period,the SPEI index revealed a link between climate variables and the defoliation and desic-cation of ***,the desiccation of trees was preceded by a long drought *** mixed conifer-ous-deciduous forests are often considered less vulnerable to natural influences,this study suggests that forest ecosystems can become vulnerable regardless of tree species composi-tion due to multi-year *** findings contribute to a better understanding of important clues for predicting pos-sible future desiccation of *** monitoring of the state of forests and of more permanent experimental plots in national parks could provide better quality data and timely responses to stressful situations.

关键词： Forest ecosystems extreme climate events Drought Defoliation Monitoring

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Latest Advances in climate Change Detection Techniques

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第1期24卷 1-16页

作者：封国林龚志强支蓉 Department of Physics Yangzhou University College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University Laboratory for climate Prediction National Climate CenterChina Meteorological Administration Laboratory for climate Prediction National climate Center China Meteorological Administration

In recent years,the global warming and its influences on people and social economy have received increasing attention from international *** the current trend of global temperature variation has become one of the critical issues in climate change ***,it is rather important to develop new climate change detection technology in order to identify new characteristics of the global *** review introduces the latest advances and past achievements on the climate change detection technology in China with emphases on new detection methods in the following five aspects：（1） abrupt climate change detection,（2） signal separation and extraction from observed data,（3） intrinsic complexity of the climate system,（4） recognition of the dynamical characteristics of the climate system,and（5） definitions and detection of extreme *** last,some cruxes and key problems in the current climate change detection technology research are briefly discussed.

关键词： abrupt climate change extreme climate events detection method dynamical structure characteristic

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Evaluating the flooding level impacts on urban metro networks and travel demand:behavioral analyses,agent-based simulation,and large-scale case study

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Resilient Cities and Structures 2022年第3期1卷 12-23页

作者： Bingyu Zhao Yili Tang Chaofeng Wang Shuyang Zhang Kenichi Soga Institute of Transportation Science TU WienViennaAustria Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of CaliforniaBerkeleyUSA Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science University of ReginaSKCanada College of Design Construction and PlanningGainesvilleFloridaUSA School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering Wuhan University of TechnologyWuhanChina

With urban residents’increasing reliance on metro systems for commuting and other daily activities,extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding impacting the metro system services are becoming increasingly of *** for such emergency interruptions require a thorough understanding of the potential outcomes on both the system and individual component ***,due to the complex dynamics,constraints,and interactions of the elements involved(e.g.,disaster,infrastructure,service operation,and travel behavior),there is still no framework that comprehensively evaluates the system performance across different spatiotemporal scales and is flexible enough to handle increasingly detailed travel behavior,transit service,and disaster information *** on an agent-based model(ABM)framework,this study adopts a data-driven ABM simulation approach informed by actual metro operation and travel demand data to investigate the impact of flood-induced station closures on travelers as well as the overall system response.A before-after comparison is conducted where the traveler behaviors in disaster scenarios are obtained from a discrete choice model of alternative stations and routes.A case study of the Shanghai Metro is used to demonstrate the ability of the proposed approach in evaluating the impacts of flood-induced station closures on individual traveler behavior under normal operation and a series of water level rise scenarios of up to *** was found that,when the flood-induced station closures only affect a few river-side stations in the city center,the travelers experience only minor disruptions to their trips due to the availability of unaffected stations nearby as a ***,as the water level increases and more stations(mainly in the suburban area)are affected,up to 25%of trips are no longer being fulfilled due to the loss of entrances,exits,or transfer *** system experiences overall less crowdedness in terms of passenger volume and

关键词： Metro flooding Infrastructure resilience extreme climate events Agent-based simulations

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The Effect of extreme Climatic events on extreme Runoff in the Past 50 Years in the Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

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American Journal of climate Change 2016年第1期5卷 15-26页

作者： Xiangling Tang Xin Lv Geography Department of Natural Science of Shihezi University Shihezi China Production and Construction Corps in Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecological Agriculture Shihezi China

To analyze extreme climatic change features and effects on runoff in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, data were collected including daily mean temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, and daily precipitation from six meteorological stations in the Manas River basin as well as daily runoff data from the Kensiwate hydrologic stations during 1960-2010. By adopting the threshold value of extreme climatic events defined by ET ALDDMI and with the aid of nonparametric statistical tests, Pearson III methods, and others, the effect of extreme climatic events on extreme runoff in the past 50 years in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, was analyzed. The results showed that in the past 50 years, 1) extreme warming events (annual extreme maximum temperature, warm-day and warm-night index) have risen significantly (P extreme cold events (annual extreme minimum temperature, cold-day and cold-night indices), the extreme minimum temperature was high after 1976, and the cold-day index weakened significantly, similar to the cold-night index. 2) Except for the continuous drought days (CDD), the other five indices of extreme precipitation events appeared to trend upward, with an abrupt change around 1993. 3) Flood events in 1990, mostly in summer, accounted for 42.9% of the total number of floods since 1960. Floods increased mainly because extremely high summer temperatures increased snowmelt, increasing inflow to the rivers, which combined with more precipitation to cause the increase in summer peak flood discharge.

关键词： Manas River Basin extreme climate events extreme Runoff Influence

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Trends of extreme Temperature and Rainfall Indices for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of South Eastern Kenya

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2016年第12期4卷 158-171页

作者： Samwel N. Marigi Andrew K. Njogu William N. Githungo Institute for Meteorological Training & Research Nairobi Kenya Meteorological Office Kitui County Kenya

extreme climate events have profound impacts on economies and livelihoods of many regions of the world. In Kenya, the extreme climate events often have strong impacts on agriculture production systems in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). A small change in the mean climate condition can cause large changes in these production systems. There is a paucity of information on trends in climate and climate extremes in the country. However, a joint World Meteorological Commission for Climatology/World climate Research Programme (WCPRP) project on climate Variability and Predictability (WMO CCl/CLIVAR) Expert Team (ET) on climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices has defined 27 core climate indices mainly focusing on extreme events which can be derived through the use of RClimDex Software. In this study, therefore, the RClimDex software has been used to derive climate extreme indices for five stations in the ASALs of South-Eastern Kenya based on climate data for the period 1961 to 2009. The objective was to examine trends in these extremes to aid agricultural planning and practice. These indices have shown decreasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity and consecutive wet days but increasing trends in consecutive dry days. Steady warming patterns were evident in both the maximum and minimum temperature indices. This paper concludes that indeed significant changes in climate extremes are apparent in the ASALs of the country and recommends a re-thinking of planning and practice of rain-fed agriculture in the ASALs of South-Eastern Kenya.

关键词： extreme climate events climate Indices Agriculture Systems ASALs RClimDex Soft Software

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Basic Features of climate Change in North China during 1961-2010

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Advances in climate Change Research 2013年第2期4卷 73-83页

作者： GUO Wen-Li SHI Hong-Bo MA Jing-Jin ZHANG Ying-Juan WANG Ji SHU Wen-Jun ZHANG Zi-Yin Beijing Regional climate Center Beijing Meteorological Service

The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations＇ data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36℃ per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season （May to September）. During 1961 -2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in midwestern and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s.

关键词： North China temperature precipitation extreme climate events

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Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China

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Journal of Resources and Ecology 2020年第1期11卷 1-12页

作者： LIU Yuanzhe SONG Wei ZHAO Dongsheng GAO Jiangbo College of Geography and Environment Shandong Normal UniversityJinan 250358China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification,ice and snow melting,a continuous rise in temperature,and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events,with profound impacts on the social economic *** the aggravation from climate changes,even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious *** present,the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing,and the absolute economic losses are *** quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change,and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial ***,in this paper,we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly *** example,while the mining industry,so far,has positively responded to the changing climate,severe weather events such as storms,drought,and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the *** manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs,which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events,and some industries have complex response *** terms of the construction industry,its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity *** production and supply industries for electricity,heat,and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events;and as the largest carbon emission industries,the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short ***,the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation,and therefore,the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models i

关键词： climate change industrial economy extreme climate events carbon emission reduction

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