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extreme precipitation detection ability of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets in hilly area:a case study in Nepal

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 390-405页

作者： Sunil Subba Yao-Ming Ma Wei-Qiang Ma Cun-Bo Han Land-Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects Group State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Atmospheric Science Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes Dingri 858200China Kathmandu Center of Research and Education Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesIslamabad 45320Pakista

Given Nepal's vulnerability to extreme precipitation(EP),it is imperative to conduct a comprehensive analysis to comprehend the historical trends of such ***,acquiring precise precipitation data for EP remains challenging in mountainous countries like Nepal owing to the scarcity of densely gauged *** limitation impedes the dissemination of knowledge pertaining to EP variability events in *** current research on this topic is deficient for two main reasons:1)there is a lack of studies leveraging recently released high-resolution precipitation products to identify their EP detection capabilities,which further hinders the usability of those products in data-scarce regions like Nepal,and 2)most studies have focused on the characterisation of EP events in Nepal rather than their spatial and temporal *** address these issues,this study evaluated the EP detection capabilities of four high-resolution precipitation product datasets(PPDs)across Nepal from 1985 to *** datasets include the ERA5 Land reanalysis data,satellite-based precipitation data(PERSIANN_CCS_CDR and CHIRPS_V2.0)and a merged dataset(TPHiPr).We used various statistical and categorical indices to assess their ability to capture the spatial and temporal variability of EP *** annual EP events were characterised by 11 indices divided into frequency and intensity *** TPHiPr merged dataset offered a robust depiction of monthly precipitation estimates,achieving the highest critical success index,accuracy,probability of detection and a low false alarm ratio for daily precipitation detection of 0.1 mm in ***,the PERSIANN_CCS_CDR dataset exhibited poor *** PPDs showed increasing trends in EP ***,the TPHiPr dataset showcased those trends with fewer errors and stronger correlations for many frequency(R10mm,R20mm and R25mm)and intensity(RX1day,RX5day,PRCPTOT and R99p)*** results indicate that TPHiPr outperformed ot

关键词： extreme precipitation precipitation product Nepal TPHiPr ERA5 land PERSIANN_CCS_CDR CHIRPS_V2.0

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Construction of daily precipitation series and the observational characteristics of extreme precipitation in Tianjin,China during 1888-2022

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 52-61页

作者： Peng SI Qing-Xiang LI Xiao-Yang CHEN Min WANG Chuan-Jun LUO Tianjin Meteorological Information Center Tianjin Meteorological BureauTianjin 300074China Research Centerfor Ecology and Environment of Central Asia Chinese Academy of SciencesWulumuqi 830011China School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai 528478China Key Laboratory of Tropical Amosphere-Ocean System Ministry of EducationZhuhai 528478China Shaoguan Meteorological Service Shaoguan 512028China

Given the difficulties in rescuing and ensuring the quality of long-term climate data,current studies on century-scale climate change are usually limited to annual and monthly data,resulting in the poor detection of extreme climate events and their changes before *** this study,we reconstructed a daily precipitation series for Tianjin from 15 September 1887 to 31 December 2022 on the basis of the most comprehensive daily precipitation records collected from the Tianjin Meteorological Archive,China,and in reference to the precipitation analysis results based on the datasets developed by the Climatic Research Unit Time-Series version 4.06,Global precipitation Climatology Centre and University of Delaware along with the application of various homogenisation methods for climate *** approach provides a complete and reliable century-long daily precipitation series for the study of regional or local extreme weather and climate *** reconstructed daily dataset reveals that the annual precipitation amount and R95 intensity in Tianjin during 1888-2022 lack significant trends and have values of 0.74±6.99 and-1.84±3.22 mm per decade,*** the annual and seasonal scales,the precipitation amount and R95 intensity,particularly those in autumn,have increased since the latter half of the 20th century relative to those in ***,the increase in precipitation amount and R95 intensity is relatively limited compared with that in atmospheric water vapour content due to surface warming,indicating the highly sensitive response of extreme precipitation events to *** addition,the estimates for the return periods of 5,10,20,50 and 100 years covering 1888-2022,1888-1950 and 1951-2022 depict that the intensity of heavy rain and above magnitude was highest in 1888-1950 and decreased in 1951-2022.

关键词： Over a century-long timescale Daily precipitation series extreme precipitation Return period

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The mediatory role of water quality on the association between extreme precipitation events and infectious diarrhea in the Yangtze River Basin,China

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 495-504页

作者： Junfeng Yu Liang Zhao Xin-Zhong Liang Hung Chak Ho Masahiro Hashizume Cunrui Huang School of Public Health Sun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of MarylandCollege ParkMD 20740USA Department of Public and International Affairs City University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyo 113-0033Japan Vanke School of Public Health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Healthy China Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

extreme precipitation is exacerbating the burden of infectious diarrhea in the context of climate change,it is necessary to identify the critical and easy-to-intervene intermediate factors for public health *** quality may be the most important mediator,while relevant empirical evidence is *** study aimed to examine the role of water quality in the process of infectious diarrhea caused by extreme *** infectious diarrhea cases,meteorological factors and water quality data in Yangtze River Basin in China between October 29,2007 to February 19,2017 were ***-stage statistical models were used to estimate city-specific extreme precipitation,water quality and infectious diarrhea relationships that were pooled to derive regional estimates.A causal mediation analysis was used to assess the mediation effect of water *** Yangtze River Basin,extreme precipitation events had a significant impact on infectious diarrhea(Incidence Rate Ratios[IRR]:1.027,95%Confidence Interval[CI]:1.013~1.041).After extreme precipitation events,the dissolved oxygen(DO)in surface water decreased(-0.123 mg/L,95%CI:-0.159 mg/L~-0.086 mg/L),while the un-ionized ammonia(NH(3)-N)increased(0.004 mg/L,95%CI:0.001 mg/L~0.006 mg/L).The combined overall effect of DO and NH(3)-N on infectious diarrhea showed that both low and high concentrations were associated with an increased risk of infectious *** causal mediation analysis showed that the mediation proportion of the two water quality indexes(DO and NH(3)-N)is 70.54%(Pextreme precipitation,in contrast to current population-oriented health strategies,those that take into account more direct and easy-to-intervene water quality indicators should be encouraged by future policies.

关键词： extreme precipitation Infectious diarrhea Water quality Dissolved oxygen Un-ionized ammonia Mediation analysis

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Statistical Modelling of extreme precipitation Indices Supporting Urban Spatial Planning Processes

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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(A) 2024年第3期13卷 90-99页

作者： Annunziata Palermo Lucia Chieffallo Elenio Avolio Department of Civil Engineering University of CalabriaRende 87036Italy Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research CouncilLamezia Terme 88046Italy

In this paper,we analyze how statistical modelling of extreme precipitation indices can support urban planners in the analysis and classification of the level of climate sensitivity of the territory and in the subsequent definition of sustainable adaptive planning and design *** activities are part of a research project that addresses the issue of climate change from the urban planning perspective to identify solutions to current and future environmental challenges,increasing the climate resilience of infrastructures and communities in urban,rural and coastal *** research activities are based on the desire to promote integration between the approaches commonly adopted by urban planners and climate specialists to plan adequate joint risk reduction *** part of this study,the focus will be on the risks produced by the greater frequency and intensity of floods,assessed by the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)as one of the key risks for ***,our attention focuses on pluvial flooding,proposing the definition of a statistical modelling of indices related to extreme precipitation and its application to the context of the Calabria Region,in *** indices are recommended by the ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)and elaborated starting from official historical data recorded by 146 telemetry active rain gauges,disseminated in the experimentation context.

关键词： Urban areas climate change extreme precipitation

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Spatial Variation and Trend of extreme precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21^st Century

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第3期12卷 192-221页

作者： Fabien Habiyakare Tong Jiang Ibrahim Yahaya Daudi Ndabagenga James Kagabo Buda Su School of Atmospheric Sciences Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) Kigali Rwanda Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China Department of Geography Gombe State University Gombe State Nigeria

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21st century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

关键词： extreme precipitation Mann-Kendall Trend Projections Oceanic System Africa

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Climate change attribution of the 2021 Henan extreme precipitation: Impacts of convective organization

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Science China Earth Sciences 2022年第10期65卷 1837-1846页

作者： Han QIN Wei YUAN Jun WANG Yang CHEN Panxi DAI Adam HSOBEL Zhiyong MENG Ji NIE Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Aviation Meteorological Center Civil Aviation Administration of ChinaBeijing 100621China Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Earth SciencesZhejiang UniversityHangzhou 310027China Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University

In this study, we investigate the climate attribution of the 21·7 Henan extreme precipitation event. A conditional storyline attribution method is used, based on simulations of the event with a small-domain high-resolution cloud-resolving model. Large-scale vertical motion is determined by an interactive representation of large-scale dynamics based on the quasigeostrophic omega equation, with dynamical forcing terms taken from observation-based reanalysis data. It is found that warming may lead to significant intensification of both regional-scale(10–14% K, depending on convective organization) and station-scale precipitation extremes(7–9% K^(-1)). By comparing clustered convection organized by a localized surface temperature anomaly and squall-line convection organized by vertical wind shear, we further explored how convective organization may modify precipitation extremes and their responses to warming. It is found that shear convective organization is much more sensitive to large-scale dynamic forcing and results in much higher precipitation extremes at both regional and station scales than unorganized convection is. The clustered convection increases station-scale precipitation only slightly during heavy precipitation events. For regional-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, shear-organized convection has a larger sensitivity by 2–3% Kthan that of unorganized convection, over a wide temperature range, due to its stronger diabatic heating feedback. For the station-scale extreme precipitation sensitivity, no systemic dependence on convective organization is found in our simulations.

关键词： extreme precipitation Global warming Climate change attribution Convective organization Hourly precipitation

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Why was Pakistan extreme precipitation stronger in 2022 than in 2010?

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第6期14卷 913-920页

作者： Xu YUAN Kun YANG Jing SUN Yan WANG Yan-Yi HE Mi-Jun ZOU Yao-Zhi JIANG Polar and Marine Research Institute College of Harbor and Coastal EngineeringJimei UniversityXiamen 361021China Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResource and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Institue of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101China School of Environmental and Geographical Science Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China Yangtze River Delta National Observatory of Wetland Ecosystem Shanghai Normal UniversityShanghai 200234China

In Pakistan,five continuous extreme precipitation events in the summer(July-August)of 2022 caused disastrous floods,depriving thousands of people's lives and ruining millions of *** tremendous disaster in Pakistan also happened in 2010 but with three concentrated extreme precipitation events in the middle of *** amount of Pakistan heavy daily precipitation in 2022 surpasses that in 2010 record,making it the strongest precipitation event ever *** comprehensively understand the causes of extreme precipitation in Pakistan,this study investigated the anomalies in atmospheric circulation and moisture contribution of 2010/2022 extreme precipitation and compared their *** results show that an atmospheric blocking over northern Europe in both 2022 and 2010 enhanced convection in Pakistan by transporting cold-dry air from the high-latitude region and benefiting warm-wet monsoonal air marching to *** employing a moisture track model,the main moisture sources for summer precipitation in Pakistan were *** is found that moisture contributions except from Eurasia were enhanced,causing extreme *** particular,enhanced moisture contribution from the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Indian continent in 2022 are more prominent than that in *** increased moisture contribution in 2010 was due to increased evaporation induced by warming sea surface in the Indian Ocean,while much richer moisture transport in 2022 was attributed to the enhanced cross-equatorial flow induced by the anomalous subtropical high in the Southern ***,attention should be paid to the role of subtropical high in the Southern Hemisphere in addition to those in Northern Hemisphere in understanding disastrous extreme precipitation events inPakistan.

关键词： extreme precipitation Moisture transport Moisture sources Pakistan

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Dominance of terrestrial moisture supply for the record-breaking extreme precipitation in Hubei, China on August 12, 2021

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2022年第6期13卷 851-857页

作者： Shi-Jia LIU Tian-Jun ZHOU Li-Xia ZHANG Dan ZHAO Jie JIANG State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

A record-breaking heavy rainfall swept across Suizhou of Hubei province in China on August 12,*** was characterized by suddenness and extremeness and caused severe socio-economic *** deepen the understanding of such an urban rainstorm and to improve the forecasting ability,this study revealed the dominant atmospheric circulation and moisture sources for this *** performed a Lagrangian model FLEXPART to understand this event in terms of moisture sources and transport *** key circulation systems affecting this extreme event were identified,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the low-level southwesterly jet and an anticyclone over northern *** low-level jet was lifted along the northern dry and cold air mass to form a front,resulting in the heavy *** moisture sources located on land contributed about 64%of the *** development of the low-level southwesterly jet in southern China was strengthened near the time of the precipitation occurrence,providing the main moisture *** China(23°-32.5°N,98°-122°E)was the most important source region,which contributed the most to the precipitation(43.6%).The results highlight the prominent role of the terrestrial water cycle in this extreme precipitation event over Hubei.

关键词： extreme precipitation Moisture source Circulation Moisture transport

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Interdecadal Change in extreme precipitation over South China and Its Mechanism

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2009年第1期26卷 109-118页

作者：宁亮钱永甫 Department of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing 210093

Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961-2003,a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are *** results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early ***,the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation,and influence different months’ extreme precipitation,*** effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.

关键词： extreme precipitation interdecadal change South China sensible heat flux latent heat flux

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Mapping Natural Hazard Impacts on Road Infrastructure——The extreme precipitation in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, June 2013

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2014年第3期5卷 227-241页

作者： Sina Keller Andreas Atzl Institute of Regional Science/Institute of Urban and Regional Planning Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKaiserstraße 1276131 KarlsruheGermany

Infrastructures in Europe have been affected by impacts of extreme natural events with increasing frequency over the past decades. One of the most recent examples is the flooding that affected parts of Germany in June 2013. Global warming is expected to change patterns of climate-related extreme events affecting *** article presents an explanatory approach. Based on an observational design, causal connections between the occurrence and patterns of extreme events and related road infrastructure impacts are analyzed. The hazard mapping case study in the state of Baden-Wrttemberg combines traffic information and data on the June 2013 extreme precipitation in Germany. It examines the precipitation occurrence and road infrastructure impact characteristics in Baden-Wu¨ rttemberg and identifies spatiotemporal hazard patterns. The article suggests further research needs and fields of application for risk mapping in climate change adaptation research in Germany.

关键词： extreme precipitation Floods Germany Hazard patterns Landslides Road infrastructure

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